According to the data of the Republic Institute of Statistics, there are 123.584 abandoned apartments in Serbia, of which 10.021 are in Belgrade. Why don't prices fall then?
Although there are more than 10.000 apartments in Belgrade are empty and no one lives in them, investors are not giving in prices, and the capital still looks like a big construction site. However, an expert in this field, Nikola Senesi, believes that it is only an illusion, he reports Today.
According to the data of the Republic Statistical Office (RZS), in 2023, the total number of completed apartments in Serbia was 35.652 apartments.
A significant increase in construction activity was recorded this year as well, and it will be the same in the next two years due to the upcoming specialized Expo exhibition in 2027.
Numerous infrastructure projects are planned, including the construction of a large number of housing units.
Slow construction
However, the latest census shows that there are 123.584 abandoned apartments in Serbia, of which 10.021 are in Belgrade.
The reasons why apartments are empty are the most diverse: some are standing because they cannot be sold, others no longer have legal heirs, others are owned by people living abroad...
According to the estimate of architect Danijela Rabrenoviฤ, who previously gave a statement to the Biznis.rs portal, about half a million square meters are empty.
"If we were to turn it into capital, it is five billion euros of capital," she stated.
So, even though this much capital is "trapped" in the capital, it seems that investors are not worried and that there are still construction sites all around us.
Authorized real estate appraiser Nikola Senesi explains to "Danas" that we see construction sites, but if you pay more attention to the cranes and the number of people on the construction sites, you can see that housing construction has slowed down drastically.
"There is no cash, there are no transactions, Belgrade on the water used to work in three shifts, seven days a week, and now we work five days in one and a half shifts." The cranes are there, on construction sites, but they work with incomparably lower intensity," he points out.
Investment lobby
Seneลกi is of the opinion that these 10.000 empty apartments are a consequence of the fact that there are already a large number of unsold apartments in Belgrade.
"The largest number are those who have not been sold, and there is also a part of those who have been sold and have not moved in," he explains.
This is all because we have a "wrong market".
"The investment lobby does not want and tries not to lower prices to a normal level and fights to maintain the appearance that the market is not in crisis." "The Belgrade apartment market, especially all the projects on the outskirts of the city, such as Mirijevo, Karaburma, Ledine, have problems with sales, only because the investors will not lower the prices," Seneลกi points out.
Falling prices are inevitable
However, a drop in prices is inevitable.
"In Belgrade, the real value of the market, taking inflation into account, has decreased by 36 percent in the last two years. That illusion of the Belgrade market is a bubble that in the next few months will, in a positive way, lead to the necessity to reduce prices".
Senesi adds that when we talk about these 10.000 empty apartments, we are only talking about the apartments that have been registered.
"We also have a lot of apartments under construction that, too, cannot find a buyer," says Seneshi.
It highlights another thing that is relatively risky.
"At the end of this year, while interest rates are falling everywhere, they will rise in our country because the Law on the Protection of Users of Financial Services will most likely be passed, and the measure to reduce interest rates will no longer be valid." That's why we expect an increase in interest rates on mortgage loans to a level of around five percent from January, which will make it even more difficult to buy apartments," Senesi warns.
The great housing crisis is felt, he claims, and adds that it is not even a matter of crisis, but of returning to a normal state.
"I am afraid that in certain segments, especially in high-rise construction, there will be a crisis that will be caused, first of all, by the lack of money for small projects and weak sales." Then there is the lack of both mechanization and employed workers," Seneลกi concludes.
On the other hand, real estate market analyst Kaฤa Lazarevic explains that there are two categories of these apartments.
"There are apartments that people have bought as an investment, and they are not renting them out, they are empty. And there are many apartments that belong to the state, the municipality, the army... and which are empty and no one is solving their problem," she states.
He says there are many reasons why they remain empty.
"These apartments often have an unresolved property-legal situation, or the one whose apartment is abandoned is not interested in it, which often happens. Then, the bankruptcy administrator who knows that there are abandoned apartments in the bankruptcy estate, but he doesn't really care about similar examples," Lazarevic points out.
Stagnation of apartment purchases in Belgrade
Data from the Republic Geodetic Institute show that in the second quarter of 2024, the number of sales contracts increased significantly compared to the same period last year in Novi Sad (22,5 percent), Kragujevac (22,9 percent) and Niลก (15,6 percent). , while a slight decrease of 1,1 percent was recorded in Belgrade.
A total of 2024 million euros was allocated for apartments in Belgrade in the second quarter of 555,6.
The most expensive apartment sold was 955.000 euros, with an area of โโ145 square meters and is located in the municipality of Savski venac, in the neighborhood of Belgrade on the water.
Real estate appraiser Miliฤ ฤokoviฤ told "Vreme" earlier that this drop in sales is negligible, and that the reason lies in the current saturation.
"As far as Belgrade is concerned, we are somewhat saturated. That is, suburban locations were discovered that gained importance. Surฤin, Panฤevo, Obrenovac, which have become very popular due to the development of infrastructure", says ฤokoviฤ.
Expected reality - unattainable
The interlocutor of "Vremena" explains that Belgrade is full of small apartments, because the most requested apartments are two to three thousand euros per square meter.
"That is the expected reality. The average price in Belgrade should be between 2500 and 3000 euros for a new building and between 1500 and 2500 for an old building," Djokovic says.
However, the boundaries have been shifted.
"This is not a significant drop in traffic, in our conditions it is insignificant, but it is still some statistical data." That's where ฤaฤak appears as a good example where it sells well, Kragujevac, Niลก, Novi Sad", says ฤokoviฤ.
Market chaos
When it comes to investments outside of Belgrade, he notes that the market is quite spontaneous, and therefore there are no rules.
"You have Zlatibor where everyone has invested and now a good part of the apartments have not been sold. They made him an ecological disaster. One should be realistic, mildly optimistic when it comes to investing. I think that the future is in smaller projects, although the state often denies me, but it is also the biggest builder, which is not quite normal", says ฤokoviฤ.
He notes that smaller projects of up to several thousand square meters are needed throughout Serbia, which is easier for investors to sell and for ordinary people to buy.
"We are on thin ice with large investments in Serbian cities," says Djokovic. "Again, everything will be sold in Belgrade. It is the target city for half of Europe when it comes to the position, so maybe you wait six months to a year, but everything will go".
Source: Today
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