Dušan Bajatović supplements and corrects President Aleksandar Vučić through the public service. What does that say about his relations with the coalition partner and Moscow
"I spoke with Putin, we got a three-month extension of the gas contract."
This is what he said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on March 30, after he spoke with the President of Russia. He added that Serbia won the deal "on very favorable terms".
A day later, a guest appearance on the Public Service was "scheduled" by "a Russian man in Serbia" Dušan Bajatović, who is close to Alexey Miller led by Russia's Gazprom. He supplemented and corrected Vučić faster and better.
He stated that the agreement between the presidents of Serbia and Russia, Aleksandar Vučić and Vladimir Putin, on the extension of the gas arrangement means that Serbia will have a stable supply until 2028, without price increases for households and with the possibility that gas for the economy will be even slightly cheaper. According to Bajatović's logic, we will not have a guaranteed supply for only three more months, as Vučić says - for three whole years.
Bajatović's version is that the agreement with Russia regarding gas is not a new agreement, but an extension of the existing one, as Vučić also noted. However, if a contract needs to be extended, it means that it had an expiration date and that it would end on March 31, 2026.
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Bajatović pointed out in the RTS program that it is not a new contract, but an extension of the existing one, primarily because of problems that may arise in the payment and interpretation of European sanctions.
"I have to say that this is an extension, and that is very important because of the European sanctions, this is an extension of the old agreement," said Bajatović, and that he would not directly link the sanctions to the Serbian Oil Industry with the gas arrangement, because separate negotiations are underway on the ownership structure of that company.
According to Bajatovic, Serbia is safe in terms of gas supply at least until January 1, 2028, when it comes to transit through third countries.
He actually mentions the deadline given by the European Union in the draft of the new regulation. It gradually bans the import of natural gas from Russia and foresees a complete waiver by 2028. However, the latest insights into the text of this document from Brussels indicate that there is no provision on the express ban on the transit of Russian gas from the EU to third countries, in this case to Serbia.
"Serbia is in a very difficult and almost hopeless situation", declared the Minister of Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović after the announcements from Brussels, and other Serbian officials also reacted badly, who asked themselves - where will Serbia get its gas from?
As particularly important, Bajatović stated that the oil formula has been retained, which enables a more favorable and stable calculation compared to stock market prices. That formula is calculated nine months back, which means that current price increases in Europe do not immediately affect the price paid by Serbia. But one day she will also be paid - if the contract is extended and she waits for those nine months.
The next quarter will therefore have a stable price, and the gas that Serbia procures under the contract is far below the current market values in Europe.
"According to that, the next quarter will be a stable price, as it was said, 320. If he were to buy it on the stock exchange, it would really be 690," stated Bajatović.
In his opinion, there is no good news for consumers in Europe, as the main suppliers are already at their maximum and demand is increasing due to reduced stocks and the crisis in the Middle East. He estimated that the price will therefore not fall below 500-550 euros per thousand cubic meters this year.
Bajatović announced that Serbia will resume talks with Azerbaijan at the beginning of April, from which it can currently count on up to two million cubic meters of gas, while larger quantities are limited by the country's technical capabilities and production. He added that Serbia can procure gas from other directions as well, including from the German coast, but this is an economically less favorable variant.
He reminded that Serbia has 120 million cubic meters of gas in reserves in Hungary and 478 million in Banatski Dvor, which provides security for winter consumption peaks.
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