Photo: Milovan MilenkovićAt the end of 2025, the value of the real estate market reached a record level since the establishment of the Real Estate Price Register. Will it become at least a little cheaper in 2026?
Wars around the world shape a lot and real estate market all over the planet, including in Serbia. Most often indirectly, even when the conflict is not near Serbian borders, when, for example, energy prices change due to planetary political upheavals. Emigration of Russian and Ukrainian political migrants to Serbia has shaped the real estate market in the country in the last three to four years, when the skyrocketing price per square meter has been recorded. Thus, in the last quarter of 2025, real estate was sold for a record 2,4 billion euros.
However, the world trend is somewhat different, at least in the East. Real estate sales in Dubai have fallen by 25 percent since the start of the Middle East war. At the same time, the real estate market in India has started to see a decline in demand for office space from international companies as construction costs have risen due to higher crude oil, steel and aluminum prices.
The value of the real estate market in Serbia in the fourth quarter of 2025 it reached 2,4 billion euros, which represents the highest quarterly level since the establishment of the Real Estate Price Register. As the report of the Republic Geodetic Institute shows, compared to the same quarter of 2024, the value of the market is nine percent higher.
However, the beginning of 2026 brings more cautious forecasts. According to experts for Biznis.rs, developments at the global level and the crisis in the Middle East could affect the domestic real estate market as well. The general director of the City Expert agency, Miloš Mitić, points out that a certain influence can already be sensed, but that a scenario similar to the one from the period of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not expected.
"Destabilization in the Middle East may have an effect on the real estate market in Serbia, but not to the extent of previous crises, because a significant wave of migration to Serbia is not expected," Mitić explains to Biznis.rs and says that current data indicate a slowdown in the market compared to the previous year. He adds that demand is lower, buyers are more cautious, while real estate is generally sold at realistic, market prices, without significant fluctuations.
He warns that the rise in the price of oil and construction materials such as steel and concrete, as well as increased logistics costs, could potentially affect the increase in the price of housing construction, especially in the new construction segment. In such circumstances, investors often pass on part of the costs to buyers, which leads to an increase in housing prices.
"The increase in the price of new construction usually leads to an increase in the price of old construction, because these two segments of the market follow each other," adds Mitić.
On the other hand, he believes that inflation and the fall in the value of money encourage the growth of the number of investment buyers because real estate in Serbia is still perceived as a safe investment, which on average brings an annual increase in value of eight to ten percent.
"In conditions of high inflation, there are more and more buyers who invest in real estate in order to preserve and increase the value of money. Projects in new construction and the initial construction phase are especially attractive, where additional discounts per square meter and subsequent growth in value can be achieved," the interviewee states.
Data from the National Bank of Serbia for February show changes in interest rates for loansDinar cash loans for citizens in Serbia, they went up slightly in February, while housing in euros, they have become slightly cheaper.
The average interest rate weighted by the amounts of loans for the Serbian economy in dinars in January was 6,9 percent, while in the last quarter it was 6,5 percent on average.
The real estate market in Serbia can also be affected by the destabilization of Euribor and interest rates, which would cause an increase in the price of loans, which would directly affect the lower availability of financing, as well as demand.
"If the reference interest rate were to go a little higher with the growth of the Euribor, cash and housing loans would be more expensive and harder to access for citizens, which would affect the reduction of payment potential and would have a negative impact on the demand itself, because Serbia is a market of tied purchases and this would have a chain effect on cash buyers as well," Mitić assesses.
Source: Biznis.rs/Vreme
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