At the moment, the oil industry of Serbia can only dream of 2022.
At that time, the company, which represents the largest business in the Republic of Serbia and pays the most taxes to the state, ended the year with a record profit of 92,4 billion dinars. This allowed them to be very ambitious in 2023 and invest almost 40 billion dinars in raising loans, which was an investment increase of almost 80 percent.
All these massively beautiful results have now come crashing down. NIS found itself in between American sanctions, Russian refusal to sell the company, also the incompetence of the Serbian regime, who did not do anything to solve this problem for almost a year. The company suffered a loss of 5,3 billion dinars in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the "minus" reached 5,6 billion dinars, according to the Momentum brokerage house. This is the first minus of the NIS since it was taken over by the Russians, not counting the corona year.
"This is an irreparable loss for NIS caused somewhat by force majeure, as was the case during the pandemic," energy analyst Miloš Zdravković told Vreme. "For NIS, but also for our country, the most important thing is that the company has a regular supply of oil, and the second is that the plants continue to work. After all, it is the largest business in the country, which is very important because of tax payments."
The recovery depends on the new boss
For Zdravković, the answer to the question of how long it will take for NIS to recover depends on the speed of concluding the key contract, but also on who will be the definitive new owner and how he will run the company.
Mol Group is a leading Hungarian energy company worth about 7,5 billion dollars, and the third most valuable in Central and Eastern Europe. Taking ownership of NIS would not be new, as it previously took over the management of state-owned oil companies in Croatia (INA) and Slovakia (Slovnaft).
However, the cooperation between Croats and Hungarians did not turn out very well. After the sale of INA in 2016, there was a lot of criticism in Croatia, as many experts assessed that the deal was contracted at a price many times lower than the real one. For the Croats, however, it is much more important that the oil refinery in Sisak, once the main plant for the production of derivatives in the neighboring country, has been closed.
That's why some energy experts fear that something similar could happen in Serbia, and NIS' operations would be completely different in that case.
Petrochemicals are very important.
The negative result was largely contributed by Petrohemija, which deepened the deficit from 7,7 billion dinars the previous year to 10,3 billion dinars in 2025.
This facility will finally begin preparations for the restoration of production facilities, which should start from Thursday, February 5, it was stated on Petrohemija's website. Thus, from Thursday to Sunday, February 8, the residents of Pančević can expect the familiar noise, smoke and intense flames of the "torch" factory.
The biggest collateral damage, in addition to the state itself, is the city of Pancevo, because there was a great possibility that people would lose their jobs both in the Refinery and Petrochemicals, and Zdravković says that this would "shut down the whole city".
"Now, oil has entered Serbia, but only with a temporary license, which means that we are still waiting for significant political decisions by the USA and Russia, in order to reach agreements and carry out ownership transformation. The recovery of NIS depends a lot on how long we wait for the final agreement," adds Zdravković.
NIS received permission from the US Department of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for the unhindered performance of operational activities until February 20, and the continuation of normal functioning depends on the approval of the takeover of the control package of Hungarian MOL shares.
Banks helped "a little"
Although NIS is in the red, the company's liquidity remained quite good considering the circumstances - free cash flow amounted to 12,5 billion dinars. The company also reduced its indebtedness to banks from 558 to 396 million euros at the end of last year due to the maturity of certain loans.
This scenario came about because banks in Serbia however, they did not take advantage of the possibility of compulsory loan collection, although they have contracts that include this possibility in the case of sanctions, they said in the Momentum brokerage house.
Oil and gas production fell by two percent, while processing in the October-December period was 39 percent compared to the previous year.
