Courses euro according to the dinar, it will remain stable in 2026, with possible very small corrections, say "Vremena" interlocutors.
Possible and gratuitous panic on the matter, as it has appeared mid-December, it will just be an unsuccessful attempt by speculators to steal something, they say.
Nikola Stakić, economist and university professor, tells "Vreme" that there is no reason to panic, and that what we saw in mid-December was a psychological effect specific to the population.
Then the exchange rate was slightly corrected, but in some exchange offices it broke through the "psychological" limit of 120 dinars for one euro.
Stakić points out that citizens should harmonize lifestyle habits and obligations with income and resources.
"Citizens love it, since we are Euroized." economy, that they have certain savings in the so-called hard currency, which is also shown by the fact that 90 percent of citizens' savings are in euros," he says.
"Nobody can know what the euro exchange rate will be in the next year, but given that we have a managed floating exchange rate regime, I think it will National Bank of Serbia (NBS), as a regulator, must do what it has to in order to fulfill its goals, among which is maintaining financial stability," says Stakić.
Do not make speculative moves
He states that the NBS has the mandate, ability and tools to react on the foreign exchange market.
"The exchange rate is a macroeconomic category that depends on many factors, which are partly inherent to us, but also on international factors that we cannot influence, and it is formed like any other commodity, based on supply and demand. My advice to citizens would be not to expose themselves in a short time interval to some speculative moves, that is, that their goal should not be to make money on some difference in the exchange rate," says Stakić.
He adds that in the past few years, citizens have become accustomed to having a stable exchange rate of the euro against the dinar, and that the vast majority of citizens perceive it as a fixed exchange rate, although fluctuations are normal.
"Such a practice also exists in other central and eastern countries Europe which still have their own national currency. There are some models that predict where the real exchange rate might be and that the euro should be stronger than it is, but the NBS has the tools to correct it in relation to market trends," says Stakić.
Spreading panic which is not good for anyone
He points out that the assessments that could be heard earlier, that the euro should be worth 200 dinars or more, are "the spread of panic that is not good for anyone in the market".
"That 'anchoring' effect is a problem, because we are used to having a stable exchange rate and for various reasons we did not allow the dinar to weaken slightly against the euro on an annual basis. Because we had such a policy, I do not believe that the government would allow the dinar to automatically align with macroeconomic trends in the market. Findings that lunch should be, for example, 200 dinars, they spread panic that can be very dangerous, especially among citizens, who are not financially educated enough on average to understand macroeconomic relations, and then this can spill over to banking sector, which is dominant in our financial system. This can create a so-called attack on banks," says Stakić.
He assesses that, in the past 20 years, Serbia has had greater pressure on banking liquidity than the pressure in mid-December.
"Such pressure is not good for anyone, except perhaps for some who have speculative activities. There is no need to spread panic because the banking sector is highly liquid and capitalized. The central bank has a high level of foreign exchange reserves with which it can react in order to prevent excessive oscillations," concludes Stakić.
Do not fall for the statements of speculators
The President of the Council of Governors of the NBS, Ivan Nikolić, tells "Vreme" that in 2026, the continuation of the policy of the NBS, which is dedicated to preserving the value of the dinar, can be expected.
"There are no particular prospects that anything could change in that sense, not even the value of the dinar against the euro. I would advise citizens and individuals businessmen not to fall for the statements of speculators and unargued conclusions that there is any kind of disorder," says Nikolić.
He emphasizes that - when you look at the balance of payments and the execution of the current part of the balance of payments - you can see that the deficit is "almost one cent the same as last year, so there is no reason for any concern."
"There is no data that would support the concern or the risk that next year there could be a disturbance in the exchange rate of the dinar against the euro. If we take into account that foreign exchange reserves have never been higher, and gold within them above 20 percent, and given that the price of gold has skyrocketed in recent days, as a reflection of geopolitical disturbances and risks, in such circumstances there is not the slightest indication that anything could change," says Nikolić.
He adds that, when it comes to the euro exchange rate, citizens have no reason to worry.
"Citizens do not have the slightest basis to calculate, nor to follow the layman's and often completely false, sometimes political conclusions of people who are called analysts, but they are hardly analysts, because with such a story, they create confusion, all while playing the card of ancient historical memory of what happened in our economic life in the nineties year. It is buried in the memory, but it comes back very easily as soon as we start that story, and it is a sensitive issue despite 13 or 14 years of complete stability, precisely because of the bad history," concludes Nikolić.
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