Serbia this fall has been constant for some time imports electricity.
Although the authorities claim that the logic behind it is that electricity is marketed when it is cheap and sold when it is expensive, so the state makes money, the current situation is still a bit more complicated.
Because of another extremely dry years in a row, electricity production in hydroelectric power plants In 2025, Elektroprivrede Srbije will be the lowest in the history of EPS production, the company announced. This caused a serious upheaval in the electricity supply. Because as much as a quarter, and previously it was up to a third, of the total electricity in Serbia - comes precisely from the natural energy of water.
It is certain that hydro production this year will be about 25 percent less than in 2024, and even 40 percent less than in 2023. EPS also expects that production in hydropower plants will be about eight billion kilowatt-hours, which is less than the lowest annual production of 8,3 billion kilowatt-hours, which was recorded 36 years ago.
There's nothing to turn to.
However, when this capacity dries up, literally, any serious power producer would have to turn to other sources. The problem of Elektroprivreda Srbije is that these sources, primarily coal, namely lignite, are of increasingly poor quality.
"Our coal is of such poor quality, that we constantly mix it with the quantities we import," says a "Vremena" source. "The largest quantities come from underground exploitation from Republika Srpska and some from Indonesia."
However, these quantities of quality imported raw materials are too small to satisfy Serbia's needs for lignite.
"If 50 trucks of two tons of coal each arrive daily from Republika Srpska, that's still only 1.250 tons, and that's how much there is in one train that arrives at TENT from Kolubara," explains a source close to the newsroom. "For the sake of comparison, 13 or 14 trains are delivered in the Kolubara mine during one shift, i.e. 12 hours, and up to 30 trains in 24 hours. Thus, no matter how much the imported raw material is better than the domestic one, it cannot turn things around and make some progress."
The quality of coal from Kolubara in 2021 is just bad knocked out 30 percent of the energy capacity and caused the system to collapse in the middle of winter.
EPS, due to the import of electricity, creates a deficit of several tens of thousands of euros - per hour, says a newsroom source, which on a monthly level creates a deficit in the budget and creates new borrowings that are measured in millions.
"We have been importing electricity from the surrounding area for some time," energy analyst Miodrag Kapor told Vreme. "It doesn't mean we're going to be without power, it's just that we're going to have a serious blow to the budget."
Crisis upon crisis
To the collapse of Serbia's two power poles, coal and water, Russian gas, that is, oil, should be added to the equation. Mostly because of the American sanctions imposed on NIS, which will cause the disappearance of Russian oil here, but also the threat of the EU regarding the long-term suspension of the Serbian Stream, which could also cause the disappearance of Russian gas.
Serbia already had in 2009 gas crisis, when Gazprom, having failed to conclude a new contract with Kiev, reduced gas deliveries through Ukrainian gas pipelines. Moscow then accused Kiev of diverting gas, and because of that, it completely cut off the supply. As many as 20 countries, including Serbia, were threatened by the gas crisis. There was no heating in households, but also in some schools, hospitals and public institutions throughout Europe. In Serbia, industry was also threatened because numerous factories depend exclusively on gas.
"The EU then came to the aid of Serbia, and according to current messages, the same could happen again, but with oil, if Serbia is subject to blackmail by Russia, that is, by Gazprom," says Kapor. "We have already heard that from Ursula von der Leyen, but also indirectly from Marta Kos. It remains to be seen whether the aid would come in the form of a grant or at market prices."
Whether and how much the EU will charge for this aid is an additional question and pain for the budget of the Republic of Serbia.
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