Electric buses: How Europe became China's garage

The deadline for submitting bids for the procurement tender expired last week 50 electric buses for the needs of EXPO 2027. Bids were submitted by two companies. Both Chinese. According to data from the Public Procurement Portal, on one side is the Chariot Motors consortium, DAT Holding and the Chinese Higer, with an offer of around 33,2 million euros without VAT. On the other side is Shanghai Runtop Electric Vehicle Technology, with an offer of 35,5 million euros without taxes, i.e. over 42,6 million with VAT. The winner of the tender will be decided by applying the "price-quality ratio" criteria, whereby the offered price carries 60 weightings, and the offered deadline for delivery of all 50 buses 40 weightings.

At the moment when European Union is trying to limit its dependence on Chinese industry and protect its own production, tenders like the one in Belgrade show how limited those attempts are in practice. European producers, despite political announcements about strengthening industrial autonomy, rarely appear as winners in tenders. They simply cannot keep up with China's so-called "economy of scale". China is by far the largest market for e-buses, which allows for mass production and lower acquisition and maintenance costs.

Chinese buses are conquering European cities

The main Chinese manufacturers BYD and Yutong together held more than 25 percent of the electric bus market in the EU in 2025. In other words, every fourth electric bus on European streets comes from China - a country that, paradoxically, is the Union's main competitor in green technologies.

Over the past decade, despite all the challenges, China has consistently controlled between 70 percent and 90 percent of the global battery production chain - from lithium processing to finished cells - and produces them faster, cheaper and on a larger scale than any European manufacturer. On the other hand, European cities, pressed by deadlines from the European Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package (which envisages a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 and the mandatory replacement of all buses with zero emissions by the same year), do not have the luxury of waiting for the development of domestic industry. Forced to choose between sustainable goals and budgets, they choose - the Chinese.

The largest electric bus fleet in the world circulates on the streets of London: 1.500 double-decker BYD–ADL Enviro400EVs have been delivered since 2016 as part of the cooperation between the Chinese giant BYD and Alexander Dennis. Amsterdam Airport Schipol has a fleet of over 35 BYD electric buses in its bus system. In Greece, Athens and Thessaloniki put 250 Yutong E12 buses into service in 2024, part of a national tender that includes as many as 1.350 units.

Similar examples can be found in Paris, Barcelona, ​​Oslo and Copenhagen. Chinese buses have an advantage because they offer cold-resistant lithium-phosphate batteries, easy maintenance and a price that is up to 30 percent lower than European competition. According to the company's official data, BYD delivered over 5.000 electric buses in 160 European cities in the previous decade to the European market, and in 2025, despite all the challenges, Yutong remained the leading manufacturer of electric buses on the European market. According to official data, 1801 of their vehicles hit the streets of Europe, which increased Yutong's market share to 15.5 percent.

Brussels on paper, Beijing in practice

The European Commission has tried to respond to China's growing influence. Following an investigation into state subsidies, high tariffs (up to 45,3 percent) were imposed on Chinese electric cars from manufacturers such as BYD and SAIC in October 2024. However, a somewhat obvious loophole in that system is that customs duties apply exclusively to passenger vehicles. Electric buses are exempt, because in European regulations they fall under the category of "heavy vehicles" and are subject to different rules.

The result of this omission is paradoxical: while Brussels restricts the import of Chinese cars in the name of protecting the domestic industry, Chinese buses run unhindered through European metropolises from London and Paris to Athens.

When talks began in April 2025 between the EU and China on the possible introduction of minimum prices for electric cars, that initiative did not include buses either. Thus, the public transport sector has become the biggest hole in the European industrial policy and the only space through which China not only maintains, but also deepens its technological and economic influence in Europe.

The Green Deal and China's response

If European regulations can still be interpreted differently, public tenders leave no room for dilemma: Chinese technology has become standard in almost all new purchases in the EU. In Italy, the city of Bari announced a tender worth 34 million euros in 2025 for 42 electric buses, which should be delivered by the summer of 2026. The national tender Consip, worth several hundred million euros, was opened in July of the same year for the purchase of an additional 600 electric vehicles.

Similar processes are taking place in Poland, Denmark and the Czech Republic, where local authorities, with the support of EU funds, are implementing green plans using Chinese batteries. Chinese manufacturers thus enter European cities not through bilateral agreements or political agreements, but through public procurement financed from European budgets. According to an estimate by the McKinsey Center for Mobility, sales of zero-emission buses in Europe will double to around 21.000 units per year by 2030, while China will maintain a stable 20 to 30 percent of the market.

Today, Chinese buses symbolize everything that Europe aspired to: rapid technological progress, clean energy and efficiency in transport. However, the symbol of the green transition does not bear a European, but a Chinese signature. Instead of becoming an example of industrial independence, the Green Deal increasingly exposes Europe's weaknesses.

If nothing changes, European streets could soon testify not to the success of European industrial policy, but to its vulnerability in the face of Beijing's economic offensive, all of which should worry us.

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