MOL takes over 56 percent of shares NIS at a price between 900 million and one billion euros - claims the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić. He published this as inside information because Serbia is not actually selling anything, but the Russians are selling their share to the Hungarians.
For broker Nenad Gujaničić, the figure of a maximum of one billion for the decisive package of shares is the lower limit or something similar to the lower limit of his projection of the company's value.
"My projection was that the current price for 100 percent of NIS shares is between two and three billion euros," Gujaničić told Vreme. "If it happens, the transaction price will be somewhere below market expectations, but we must be aware that it was decisively influenced by the circumstances accompanying this sale, and not by the objective value of the company."
The sellers, in this case the Russians, were forced to sell a package of shares because American sanctions, and the customers knew it.
"It's like any other sale - when it's known that you really want to sell, no one is going to give you a great price," explains the broker.
Is it selling cheaper or more expensive now than in 2008?
When this potentially concluded deal with the Hungarian MOL is compared with the initial sale of NIS to the Russian Federation in 2008, some might again conclude that the most valuable company in Serbia left - too cheaply.
Because, even 18 years ago, Serbia sold the majority stake in the company to Gazprom for only 400 million euros, and many disputed the amount of this purchase, saying that it was even obscenely low. The price of NIS shares was criticized from the beginning, because all valuations were much higher - it was even said to be several billion euros.
Then the NIS buildings in Belgrade and Novi Sad, refineries in Pancevo, Novi Sad, Elmir, about 500 hundred gas stations, 1600 internal stations, 44 warehouses for kerosene supply, numerous tanks, shares in companies, the right to use stocks, oil fields in Vojvodina and concessions on oil fields abroad were also sold.
Particularly controversial in this agreement was the mineral rent - it remained at around three percent, although according to the law it should have been seven percent. This means that we have been charging the Russians more than twice as much for digging our own treasure all along.
Weighted sale
However, along with this "friendly market" there was also an agreement on production South Stream, which was supposed to go through Serbia and bring the country a lot of money. This project was canceled in 2015 and left Serbia with nothing, so the weight that broke the sale of NIS to the Russians is actually lost.
It is difficult to compare today's figure of almost one billion and then 400 million euros, so that one could easily say that the NIS has become worthless even now. However, Gujaničić says that we must not forget that we had unusual circumstances this time as well. Just as then the promise of South Stream lowered the price, now the weight was - the imperative to sell.
"It should be clear to us that Gazprom made NIS a much more successful company than it was in 2008. If they wanted to sell it in 2023, when NIS had record results, they would certainly have received several billion euros for 56 percent of the shares," he claims.
That is why, although Serbia is not affected by the amount of the sale of the Russian part, it is still important for the country that one of the largest companies, in which the state still has a stake, functions.
We would have given double, but no one asked us
Vučić told TV Blic that Serbia was ready to pay double for that part. He also called as "nonsense" the claims, which he says he read in some media, that MOL bought part of the largest Russian-Serbian giant in the country, precisely for 1,7 to 2,5 billion euros.
"We had prepared the money and two billion euros to pay. Even to pay more than that," repeated Vučić.
He also added that it is easy to explain to himself why the Russian share in NIS was not offered to Serbia, but he did not want to state this publicly, so as he pointed out, he would not endanger the interests of the state.
"To me, those reasons are clear, unambiguous, understandable, but whether they are acceptable or not is another matter," he said.
Vučić also said that it was clear to him that this share in NIS would not be offered to Serbia even before this situation arose.
When asked what kind of relations Serbia has with Russia now, he said "good".