Extreme drought: One bad season, years of recovery

A temperature of over 30 degrees is not unusual in Belgrade - but in June. When the mercury in the thermometer crosses the thirtieth division already at the beginning of April, the circumstances are somewhat different. Especially when we consider that the place where 33 degrees Celsius was measured yesterday was under snow a year earlier.

So the weather is unpredictable. This is a minor inconvenience for the citizens of Belgrade and residents of other major cities. Let's say, the bus drivers did not seem to have received the message that the temperatures are summer, and the air conditioners in public transport generally still do not turn on - or, if they do, they heat up.

However, what is a minor inconvenience for the citizens of Belgrade, can be an existential problem for farmers - high temperatures and drought threaten to threaten agricultural production.

Rain is crucial for crops

Simeun Cvijović, a small agricultural farmer from the Užice region, confirmed that the lack of rainfall in the previous period had a negative effect on the crops.

"The lack of moisture in the arable layer leads to difficult sprouting of the sown crops. It also has a bad effect on the condition of winter crops, which are not in satisfactory condition due to the lack of moisture, especially in the areas further from the river," Cvijović told "Vreme".

Crops that were sown before winter are now in the middle of the growing season, primarily wheat and barley. For them, the rain in the coming period will be of crucial importance, he explains.

"The announced rains could arrive at the right moment for spring sowing. "Just let it be, but without low temperatures," says Cvijović.

A single drought can reduce the yield of all crops in the following year, even cutting it in half. However, this year is better than the previous ones.

"It's better than previous springs, at least in the Užice region, where there were floods last year," noted Cvijović.

With the rain, provided there are no floods, there will be no consequences for agriculture, said Cvijović and added that according to the current prospects, fruit growing is not threatened.

Extreme droughts in Serbia

The average maximum temperature in April this year is about eight degrees higher than it was in the period from 1961 to 1990, according to research by the Klima 101 portal. They compared the average temperatures in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš in the first ten days of April with average maximum temperatures from this period of the 20th century.

Thus, they came to the conclusion that the first ten days of April in the capital of Serbia are 7,8 °C warmer than it used to be. Novi Sad is 8 °C warmer than before, while the temperature in Niš rose by 7,6 °C.

The increase in average temperatures and how it affects agriculture, one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change in Serbia. The fact that a large part of the country has been affected by drought in the past two months is particularly significant.

"The situation regarding the drought in Serbia is currently worrying. For example, from April 8 to 14, not a single drop of rain fell on the entire territory of Serbia. When looking at the last two months, almost half of our country is in the category of extreme drought. In order to undo this and to return the moisture content of the soil to the appropriate level, we need to have fairly large accumulations of precipitation in the next month," meteorologist Vladimir Đurđević, full professor at the Faculty of Physics of the University of Belgrade, told Vreme.

Cold weather and precipitation have already arrived in Serbia, and Đurđević indicates that to further improve the situation, it would be good to repeat the same until the end of the next month.

"We should probably have two episodes, like this chill episode that's coming up right now." In the next ten days, in some parts, even about 50 or more than 50 liters of rain per square meter may fall. That will help to improve the situation, but we should probably have at least one more such episode by the end of May, so that the situation can be brought back to normal," the meteorologist points out.

Temperature change: good for everyone, except beekeepers

It's not just rainfall (or the lack of it) that's a concern for farmers. By the end of this week, average daily temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees are expected, and a new potential headache appears - frost. However, Professor Đurđević emphasizes that there should not be much of it this year.

"Farmers who are at lower altitudes should not worry about the potential occurrence of frost, which is normally their big concern. Not without reason, because it happens more and more often and in an increasingly large territory that in February and March the temperatures are very high and that the buds form on the plants because of this, and then at the end of March or the beginning of April there is a severe frost that devastates the fruit production. However, it is very unlikely that it will happen this year," Đurđević points out.

He explains that the cold weather will have a negative effect only on beekeeping.

"Nothing in agriculture is straightforward and there are always winners and losers." In this case, the majority of farmers should be pleased that we are returning to normal April temperatures," explains the meteorologist.

Struggle with adversity

Farmers must be prepared for potential shocks in order to be able to mitigate them, Đurđević points out.

"They should also think about irrigation, about changing agrotechnical measures, and about monitoring production." These are all measures that could help farmers mitigate the shocks that are becoming more frequent. Last year, our Government adopted the so-called Adaptation program, in which agriculture is quite represented. Some of the measures defined by that program are an increase in irrigation, and some are other agrotechnical measures," says our interlocutor.

He explains that these are measures such as tilling the land so that it conserves more water than it would normally conserve, ensuring agricultural production, installing anti-hail nets and a system for warning announcements.

"Farmers need not only to be warned of unfavorable conditions, but to be notified, when possible, in advance if the weather conditions will be favorable to do something earlier than planned, in terms of sowing or harvesting."

In theory, all these measures sound good. It is very difficult to implement them in practice.

"Organizationally, it is very difficult to implement those measures on large areas where agricultural production takes place in Serbia. Municipalities and parts of the country are technologically developed in different ways, they have different economic power and the capacity of the people who live in those areas is different. It is quite complicated to implement, and if we wanted to really help farmers, it would take at least five or six seasons, or years, to establish a more serious system," Đurđević points out.

For small producers, it's a question of 'to be or not to be'

Our interlocutor explains that the role of the state is crucial for the implementation of measures, but that cooperation between government representatives and farmers has still not taken root in Serbia.

"The state should be more active in this matter." To promote measures, to have educational programs and to somehow show that he has understanding for farmers. We generally see the opposite. What usually happens in our country is that farmers have some problem and then the tension starts, whether the state can help or not. That is why farmers are often distrustful of the government," Đurđević points out.

Finally, when talking about the problems brought by unstable weather, it mainly refers to small farmers.

"The large agricultural producers that are beginning to dominate the market, such as Delta Agrar, Al Dahra and others, are mostly technologically and financially powerful, so it is easy for them to suffer such climate shocks. They do not need the state to help them. For small producers, this is a question of 'to be or not to be'. "One or two bad seasons can make life miserable for them for the next ten years," Đorđević concluded.