Holy Saturday

A rather absurd position - to write a text about an event that will take place in a few days in a country where you don't know what will happen in half an hour. In addition, March 15 in Belgrade actually already started seven days earlier, on Saturday, and continued with the blockade and events in front of RTS on Monday evening and on the day this text was written (Tuesday). Predicting the scale and consequences of the expectedly large, perhaps "biggest in history" all-citizen rebellion is an additional difficult task due to indications that neither the students, as the unequivocal frontmen of the protest, nor the government have an elaborated scenario for Saturday. Admittedly, some version of the rebellion plan is circulating on social networks, but the students claim that it has not been agreed upon.

Quite understandable caution, because the situation changes from minute to minute. Some even say that Vučić will make a decision on the regime's response to the protest only on Friday evening - he will wait until the last moment, the stakes are high. In a dramatic situation, in which the government is showing all its remaining teeth, with images of police violence and the undisguised insolence and mendacity of the first man of Serbia, the students do not run out of spirit. That spirit is a tremendous force. Some of our colleagues have already started to collect countless creative messages from the months-long protests, making a kind of anthology that will show future generations very well that right now in Serbia there is not only a fight between citizens and the "reborn" kleptomaniac government, between good and evil, normality and abnormality, but also a battle of creativity against banality.

So, for example, jokes of academics from the "inside" who have already left or are planning to leave for Belgrade appeared on social networks: Belgraders started March 15 earlier in order to have an excuse not to welcome them with plenty of food, the way they were greeted and how students are greeted all over the country.

In addition to having spirit, they also have determination and that collective intelligence, which has already been mentioned many times, which is brought to them by the plenum way of managing protests. Sometimes they may be wrong, like with that strange announcement that the people should realize their ideas and interests through civic assemblies. It seems a bit childish. Something that functions as "direct democracy" in higher education institutions may not by default be applicable in all other situations.

Nevertheless, in a huge number of cases, students make good and well-considered decisions. They are not, as some say, closed. They like to listen to the opinion of the older and more experienced, those they value, but they pass it all through the machinery of their own reflection and value system. Sometimes their decisions are not liked by all the rebellious people, but the fact is that they farce.

LET'S PUT WHAT WE HAVE ON THE TABLE!

Regardless of the complete unpredictability of the March 15 rally, regardless of the fact that we do not know whether this date will be recorded in the history books or will be promptly forgotten - let's put what we have on the table and try to analyze its possible scope and outcomes.

There is no doubt that the gathering will be extremely large, hundreds of thousands of people are being talked about. It is not an unrealistic forecast, regardless of the campaign of intimidation that the regime has been conducting in recent days and regardless of the eventual blockade of the roads to Belgrade, which, according to some of the public, the regime is planning for Saturday. Crta announced that at least 410 rallies were held in Serbia during the past week. There is almost no place, or even a village, where the citizens do not publicly show, at least in some way, a strong revolt. Enormous energy will pour into the capital for a protest that has been announced in advance as a crucial one event, after which nothing will be the same. Surprisingly, the protestors-citizens and President Vučić and his parrot subjects agree with the fact that it will not be the same after March 15.

Many rebels sent a message a long time ago that "the matter will be resolved" on March 15 in Belgrade. It is not yet clear what the solution means, which model was chosen exactly, but it is understandable that in some way they wanted to postpone long-term protests, so that they would not create the halo of some kind of ineffective infinity. In doing so, they really regenerated the vitality of the rebellion. Absolutely, at least judging by the social atmosphere and the fact that even the biggest pessimists are preparing for the trip to Belgrade. On the other hand, high expectations can be counterproductive, if, say, Sunday or Monday dawns like any other day after one of the large anti-regime gatherings of the past months and years in Serbia.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

However, if they sought to some extent, the energy of the rebellion will be renewed, and very soon, perhaps even stronger. There will be reasons for that, no doubt. The regime produces them and will continue to produce them, in the hundreds per day. The longevity of these and other anti-Vučić protests speaks in favor of this. It can even be said that protests in Serbia have been going on continuously for years, with some breaks.

The current protests are going to be remembered as one of the longest anti-regime demonstrations in recent history. Most of them all received minor or major changes, except for those that lasted several months in 2020 and 2021 in Belarus, which were violently suppressed and after which Lukashenko consolidated power. But it seems that the Belarusian scenario is still not possible in Serbia, not because Vučić is not willing to realize such a thing, but because, apparently, he is too late. He was screwed by the Novi Sad canopy. He hardly has enough loyal repressive forces to implement it. Lukashenko had the opportunity to kill his country much longer.

Progressives have turned society into an overheated pressure cooker, made of social injustice, lies, open corruption and crime. They were just too late to let off steam and lower the pressure, even if they were ready and/or capable of such a thing. After a period in which they seemed to favor the students, called for dialogue and the like, arrested those who were "prone to falling", they realized that the pressure was not easing. They decided to increase it again, so what the opponent, what both. Now they have increased the repression, so the students are again "thugs", "plenum anarchists", "servants of the opposition"... They lie even when they don't. And that is another sure source of renewal of the rebellion's vigor.

The cruel humiliation of educational workers, who were paid the first part of their monthly salary in the amount of a few thousand dinars, did bring unrest among professors and teachers, but this move also increased anger in the whole society at the same time. As well as the lies about the attacked policeman and Minister Selaković's broken nostril. Even the "fuse", the intrusion into the "infamous" non-governmental organizations, was not particularly successful. And so on.

THE JUDGE BLOWS THE END.!

The progressives say that on March 15, the judge will "blow the whistle", the end of the protests and the "return to normal". They repeat it as one. And what is happening today is the most normal and logical thing since 2012.

The "subject institution" announced back in Sremska Mitrovica (almost a month ago) that it will write a book about how it "defeated the colored revolution", which will become a transgalactic bestseller. He talked about the book to those who see that paper phenomenon as a kind of Pandora's box, from which, if opened, a poisonous snake will come out and bite their nose. He declared victory at halftime of the game, when his team was losing at least 1:0.

The authorities need an "endgame" for the simple reason that they are more exhausted than the protesters and that it is clear to them that with the passage of time things are less and less in their favor. If nothing else, they know very well what the situation is in terms of the depth of the party, how many people are willing to change sides and how many are unwilling to use their shoulders to defend those who earned millions and millions, and threw dice at them.

The president seems less and less balanced, as if his head is buzzing. How far the matter has gone is well illustrated by his demonstrative departure, that is, by interrupting Dacic while he, in Vučić's words, was trying to "justify" himself for police violence in front of RTS. It is one of the few relevant television appearances in which he showed unequivocal spontaneity.

VUCIĆ DECIDED FOR VIOLENCE

There is no doubt that he has made up his mind and is planning a violent scenario on Saturday. He hesitates just how far to go, because he knows that the beating has two ends. And now, the warning about possible violence that will be directed against the institutions and him personally, or rather the call for violence - is primarily aimed at intimidating and discouraging citizens from coming to the rally. It's going to be shit, don't come, who knows what will happen! Keep your head, let politics go! Nothing really new, we all know that trick. But the well-informed say that this is not the only issue and that it is possible that he will make irrational moves, which is of course dangerous, but it is also a game that, as we said, can backfire on him. If there are a few hundred thousand people on the streets of Belgrade, state violence cannot even theoretically work in its favor.

Proof that the government is ready for violence is the tragicomic project "Students 2.0". A few hundred "loyalists" gathered in the park and show their desire to learn. Many of them did not even finish elementary school or they finished high school through a relationship. Everything is precisely documented on social networks, so to speak, every "brother" has a first and last name, but also a short biography that any normal person would be ashamed of. And they were joined by those previously known to law enforcement, such as veterans of the infamous Special Operations Unit. They take pictures of themselves with ultra-rightists and neo-Nazis.

The big question is whether Vučić actually has full information about the support he currently has, or does not have. Maybe his people shouldn't tell him that there isn't a single person in the park who hasn't been paid for it. Apart from perhaps the supreme "caci", perhaps only fame is enough for him. Looks like someone like that. Maybe they are not telling Vučić the truth because they are afraid of the leader's reaction. It would not be the first time when authoritarians or dictators are involved. If he is being lied to, and by all accounts he is being lied to, then he can make a decision that will quickly avenge him. His advisors are probably aware, but they must not tell him that his every appearance in public is a pure own goal. Because he believes in the magical power of his babbling.

Photo: FoNet/Marko Dragoslavić

PROJECT FAILURE 2.0?

Project 2.0 shows just how fragile the progressive force is at the moment. Out of almost 250000 active students in Serbia, they did not manage to attract at least a few dozen of them, all with good fees, instead they had to fill their tents with ruffians and scumbags.

But perhaps the function of the tent "studentaria" does not end only with cheap propaganda. Perhaps they represent the "red scarf" for Saturday's protesters. Of course, the organizers, the students, will not call for violence, they will even strongly oppose it, as before. Countless policemen will be hired, but if the gathering is really massive, not even tanks will be able to discipline the citizens, let alone policemen in yellow. And there will be, no doubt, "inserted elements".

When it comes to tanks, experts say that Vučić cannot count too much on the army, as he has stated a couple of times. The army will protect him if someone attacks him. If anyone touches me, my dad will come, in other words.

He brought the 3rd battalion of the military police to Belgrade, say well-informed people. There are two more available, which can be activated in the meantime. There are also "Cobras". But what can they do against a few hundred thousand people? Tanks would be the most effective though. But they don't really look nice on the streets, they remind us of various events from our recent history and the history of others. And they are not located near Belgrade. Realistically, of those two hundred - only about fifty can happen in a relatively short period, but even their arrival in Belgrade will, even to its voters, seem more like a weakness of the regime than a strength. And not all "loyalists" know how to drive tanks. Tractors are easier to manage.

The one with Dacic says something else, also more or less known. It is clear to Vučić that the SPS - if we exclude the repeatedly blackmailed elite - is not quite ready to share responsibility with the progressives for all their epoch-making inactions. They are preparing an exit strategy, the party is full of depth and breadth.

Not to mention the fact that the other coalition partners are also in an awkward situation in front of their voters. Especially those representing national minorities. They could tolerate Vučić while he was showing a European face and giving them money and provisions, but now that he has returned to the factory settings - showing the true face of an old radical - it is evoking ugly memories of some not-so-long-ago times among the minorities. Generally, according to the information we have, some members of the parties of the ruling coalition will be in Belgrade on Saturday, not in 2.0 tents but on the street with citizens. And with the desire to see that they are there.

TRACTORS 2.0

In addition to the Students 2.0 project, the Farmers 2.0 program package, actually Tractors 2.0, is ongoing. Progressives borrow tractors from "their farmers", landowners who have become enormously rich thanks to privileges, access to state land and favorable credit lines. But neither are they interested in sitting in the tractor and listening to orders about what to do. Not even to send their employees. The progressives are annoyed because it is clear to them that information is leaking from their ranks as if every valve had burst. Sticking on all sides. Thus, videos of warehouses where empty tractors are located, those that will be driven by "loyalists" or members of the BIA, have already appeared on social networks, if there is any significant difference between those two appearances. There are about fifty tractors in the videos, but there is room for a few hundred more.

It is not yet clear what exactly is planned with those tractors. As well as whether those plans will be realized. It will be decided later. One of the scenarios is that they will serve to close the approaches to Belgrade. If they decide to block the roads, it will inevitably lead to conflicts on the outskirts of the capital, and they will be transferred to the center. Another scenario is that they will serve by theatrically joining the "cats" at one point, to protect institutions together or whatever. Like, farmers support "students" and retired JSO. And then, if there are riots, they will participate in the riots. Violence can be an opportunity for Vučić to introduce a state of emergency. Perhaps this is exactly the "playing of the end" he is talking about, but things are not resolved that simply - there is no end until the citizens say it is the end. Speaking of color revolutions, let's remember that Shevarnadze in Georgia tried to stay in power after the stolen elections by introducing a state of emergency, but that the army and police refused to obey. Recently, South Korean President Jun Suk-yeol also tried to protect his position by imposing a state of emergency, but ultimately failed.

We mostly know what Vučić's "playing the end" means. The end of the protests, his return to the position of the all-powerful and omnipotent ruler and a broken society, without hope. On the other hand, we don't know what the end means for the protesting citizens. We can guess, but we don't know for sure.

If the end we sense and wish for does happen, we don't know if it exists and what the plan is for the day after.