Since the first results of the elections held on December 17 last year, the media has been busy uncovering the secret of Branimir Nestorović's success, who won five percent of the vote at both the republican and municipal levels. Today, his movement, albeit under a completely different name and structure, seems to be even more popular than it was just three months ago. What contributed to that?
Dr. Branimir Nestorović's movement "We - the voice of the people" achieved incredible success in the parliamentary elections in December 2023, as it won as many as 13 parliamentary mandates in the Serbian Parliament. At the same time, in the local elections in Belgrade, this movement won six council seats in the city assembly, which attracted a lot of attention from the public, analysts and politicians in the post-election turmoil between the government and the opposition regarding the issue of the formation of the government in Belgrade. In the meantime, since its foundation a few months ago until today, the movement has disbanded twice, and Nestorović recently launched the movement under the new name "We are the strength of the people" or more simply - "Pravi mi".
According to the latest public opinion surveys conducted by a foreign agency, this movement occupies an incredible 9 percent of the electorate in Serbia. This reassured everyone who expected that the internal friction within the movement would somehow reduce voter confidence. There are analysts who stated in previous weeks that the divisions in the movement will have a bad effect on the ratings before the elections in June, but there are also those who claim that Nestorovic will not suffer any damage despite the fact that some members left him.
At the recently held forum on the occasion of the founding of the new movement, Nestorović himself mentioned the popularity of that list in the Serbian electorate and emphasized: "The projections are that we can get up to 12 percent of the vote, that is, up to 15 councilors, so we would be a serious party in Belgrade, right behind the SNS ". As reported by "Danas", Nestorović said on that occasion: "Until now we were a voice, but now we are really a force" and predicted that the formation of the government in Belgrade in the upcoming elections will depend on his movement. According to the latest information, all the money allocated from the budget to parliamentary parties based on the number of votes won in the elections will completely belong to the (new) movement headed by Branimir Nestorović, and not to the one with a similar name.
Since the first results of the elections held on December 17 last year, the media has been busy uncovering the secret of the success of Branimir Nestorović and the movement that won five percent of the votes at both the republican and municipal levels. Today, the movement, albeit under a completely different name and structure, seems to be even more popular than it was just three months ago. What contributed to that?
CHARISMA CANNOT BE FABRICATED
Ivana Jakšić, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, who teaches social psychology and political behavior, believes that the success of the movement is solely the success of its leader, which illustrates the strongly present global trend of personalization of politics when voters trust parties based on prominent leaders. Jakšić states that for understanding the success and politics of Branimir Nestorović, two dimensions of social perception are key, on the basis of which we evaluate leaders, that is, on the basis of which we see what the electorate recognizes as important in a leader.
"One dimension is called agenticity in the literature, and we can translate it as a kind of focus on the task, or a dimension of competence, and the other academically would be called communality, or in a more free language, a kind of warmth, focus on people, togetherness. Nestorovic seems to have very high scores in both of these dimensions. Even before he became a public figure, he made his way into public opinion based on his medical expertise. It was said in the public that he was an excellent pulmonologist, who saved children from many diseases, and then this dimension of competence was enhanced by his presence in the media", explains Ivana Jakšić and adds that the second dimension, which refers to warmth and orientation towards people, comes from Nestorović's personality itself.
"It is not something that can be easily manufactured. He is undoubtedly a very charismatic man, approachable, smiling. In the perception of the voters, such leaders are people who have an insight into what the people need, what are the people's concerns, whom they believe will put the people's interests before their personal interests. It is interesting how Nestorović in his media appearances emphasizes that dimension of his which stems from his charm and charisma, but he emphasizes it even more when he says that he does not get into politics for some personal interests", emphasizes Ivana Jakšić.
Apart from provocative ideas, interesting media appearances and flirting with conspiracy theories, voters could hear from Nestorović and people close to him that they are neither classic politicians nor a real political party. This anti-political, anti-party narrative is, according to Ivana Jakšić, one of the main elements that influenced the movement's popularity.
"So, he is saying that they are not politicians, we see a discursive turn away from calling relevant political groups pauses because politics has become disgusting, and the word party is a dirty word, so they are a movement. This is one element that indicates that they are not classic politicians, nor are they a party, so they send the message that 'we are something different from the regime and from others', and this goes over well with a part of the voters", says Ivana Jakšić.
What all falls into that narrative? First of all, there are numerous media appearances and the adaptation of messages to different media platforms. In shows on YouTube channels, he communicates with an audience that does not necessarily believe in science, but is more inclined to deal with conspiracy theories. Shows on YouTube and posts on special groups on Facebook also have a huge number of views, and the topics they cover range from considering the great truth about the world, origins, identity, world powers, paranormal phenomena, encounters with aliens, passage through time, etc. He also has his own YouTube channel, the podcast "Positive with Dr. Nestorovic", which is followed by about 50.000 people, and the video shows cover topics about the soul, anxiety, the origin of life, and even tips on how to protect yourself from the sun or lose weight. These shows have a very practical purpose, are processed in an interesting way and hold attention.
"When you listen to Nestorović, he is a very intelligent man, but it is not always a coherent narrative, nor are the sentences with a message. These are very often some associations, and at the same time he seems very casual and confident while saying it. And he often includes some examples from his personal life, so it's easier for people to relate to him and that's why they trust him more", analyzes Ivana Jakšić and adds: "That type of competence that springs from his medical degree and successful career, plus his likability and overall personality, and the entire social context, and even the communication in which he found the recipe for firing those verbalisms is maintained on the voters. When you finish listening to the interview with him, you have a feeling of good mood and you have the impression that you can trust this man. It seems very different from everything else that is offered on the stage, and then for some unsophisticated voters with weakened media literacy and critical thinking, of which there are many, it can seem like a very tempting choice", according to assistant professor Jakšić.
DISSATISFIED PEOPLE TOGETHER
Dušan Spasojević, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, believes that the success of Branimir Nestorović in the December elections, as well as the current popularity of the movement, is reflected in the fact that Nestorović is part of the establishment in that he has access to the media and public space, and at the same time presents himself as an alternative in compared to the rest of the political scene.
"An element of his success is his platform, i.e. the topics he talks about, which normally belong to the margins of politics. It is the concept of 'fringe politics', in which he gathered various types of disaffected people who are at a great distance from all other parties, who are interested in some specific topics packed into the local context. There is this love for big foreign policy topics from which we talk about various other things: when we talk about vaccines, we also talk about big business, how big money is made from vaccines, so it's not about medicine, science and evidence, that kind of anti-global, anti-Western attitude is already combined with some more concrete elements", explains Spasojević and adds that Nestorović used a whole series of platforms to address all these groups. This makes him more adaptable than other politicians because he addresses different audiences on different topics and uses different channels to achieve this. For example, he was a guest in educational and scientific programs of RTS, news programs of national television, and the most watched entertainment programs.
"He brings that kind of humor into politics, he can say something completely stupid and get away with it, so people see him as someone who entertains a little, and as such provokes. These are all those YouTube shows that the general public occasionally makes fun of, we watch clips and the like, and they address a part of society that has been politically unrepresented so far. In one such situation, as it was in the previous elections, he used the opportunity to build a very specific position, which is at a distance from the classical government and the opposition, relying on the public space in the mainstream as well as those channels. it is clear that he is closer to the ruling parties", says professor Spasojević.
The disintegration of the movement, as confirmed by American research, did not even dent the confidence of part of the electorate in Nestorović's politics. The interlocutors of "Vremen" explain this phenomenon with expressed leadership, but also with strong media promotion of positions and communication with a targeted, specific public.
"When we talk about that movement, Nestorović is the first, so there are ten empty places behind him. None of the other people are even remotely important. They contribute, but every one of them is spent, even these people who have left the movement. They are too little known to the public, even to that targeted public, for it to have any significant impact. Therefore, Nestorović is pulling those voters", explains Spasojević. He reminds us that we could see this in the elections where Nestorović supported the Dveri list: "He made a significant contribution to their election result at that time".
For Ivana Jakšić, the aura of the winner, which Nestorović symbolically carries since December 2023, can have a significant impact on the determination of voters in the June elections. "People love winners, and since the December elections there has been that one kind of positive association about Nestorović. He carries the political structure of the movement, he always carries that whole structure in whatever else he gets involved. At that time, he received enormous media and political exposure, and criticism that he is a Trojan of the regime actually lives on in opposition communication channels. That electorate, for which he was an acceptable choice, was probably not even touched by those criticisms, and he received confirmation that he is still what he is. The disintegration of the movement itself was communicated so that people do not really understand why it disintegrated, something happened to those people, and Nestorović came out of it and kept his aura with such communication", concludes Ivana Jakšić.
In the context of the upcoming Belgrade elections, according to Spasojević, Nestorović's new movement can address the voters of the People's Party, the Dveri-Zavetnica coalition, and even those who vote for Saša Radulović. "Nestorović is a man who has a certain number of followers and since it is a small, specific group, it is very difficult to assess how he will react to these post-election matters and how the voters of other parties will react. And when that one big field of maybe 10 percentage points opens up, it is very difficult to predict in which combinations and how the voters will be divided. "I wouldn't expect Nestorović's big decline, maybe there will even be growth," concludes Spasojević.
The author is an associate professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade
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