Srbija (bez KiM)
2-12 jul 2026.
istraživanje telefonsko
reprezentativni uzorak ispitanika: 1000
......
"No one is happy, and no one is enough." I think that these Njegos verses from Gorski vienci, from Abbot Stefan's famous sermon, perhaps best illustrate the findings of our July research. With all that addition that says: "No one is calm and no one is peaceful".
Most of our reports of the previous year were reduced to statements, including headlines like "Same target, same distance". This time, however, it's not quite like that. There are changes and they are not small. But, again, it's not so much that we can calmly say: "It's over".
The main change is certainly persistent and continuous growth"student lists", which in a relatively short time increased from thirty to nearly forty percent of the target electorate. Truth be told, this growth is largely a consequence of the fact that in the last survey we completely abolished the previous option "I'm against the government, but I don't know exactly who I would vote for", which then pushed the majority of this category towards "students" - and one part returned to "undecided" (which in this survey "jumped" from the previous twenty to around 25 percent). But this is also an indicator of a trend.
However, it remains that, at least at this moment, no one can be completely happy, calm and peaceful yet. The "student list" has grown drastically, but it is still far from an absolute majority, and the question is whether and how it can reach it.
As for Vučić and the authorities, they remained at approximately the same level in this finding, and when and if they all get together (SNS+SPS+SRS), as they most likely will, they can expect to be in first place again.
photo: tanjug / miloš milivojević…and the opposition in the Parliament
The parliamentary opposition is not "dead" as both the progressives in the parliament and the apostles of the "student list" on social networks have been lustily predicting it for more than a year, but it is in a serious crisis, uncertainly squeezed between two dominant political blocs.
Those who are currently above the "line" cannot be completely calm, just as those below are not without chances to get their hands on the census in a favorable scenario. And that is reality, not just a consolation, an alibi or a warning (although there are definitely warning elements).
At this moment, it is not even completely clear who is actually going to the polls, nor in what format. Aside from the fact that the lists have not been formed (which, especially when it comes to the so-called "student list", is by no means without importance), even the coalitions have not been fully defined, and what we have offered here is only conditional and based on assessments of the current situation and recent statements.
STATE OF MATTERS ON PAPER
......
It is not known whether the SNS and the SPS will go together (although I think they certainly will, despite some reservations on both sides). Vučić psychologically, politically and visually cares that his list, i.e. the list with his name in the name, wins "40 plus" votes (and how many "plus" will be in the end, even the militia does not know at the moment), which is why he needs socialists and radicals on the list - and that will almost certainly be the case in the end.
On the other hand, it is also not known whether the "civilian" party group (the former "Serbia against violence", from the last elections) will now come out in one column - which until a few months ago seemed quite certain and which I would recommend - or in two, with SSP and NPS as gravity points. In somewhat "normal" political circumstances, it would make sense to think about it as well (one more "pro-EU", the other more "center"), but I'm afraid that in the current, abnormal conditions in various aspects, it seems like an unnecessary and risky luxury.
On the so-called right-wingers, the current situation is probably even worse than that of their "pro-European" and civil colleagues. Even though the united would have a virtually guaranteed vote, and maybe even a chance to be a "tip in the scales", that - and any - unification on the right is unlikely to happen. And I wouldn't say that it's only about "vanities". Even now, as well as in 2022 and 2023, Vučić is very concerned that this "right-wing" opposition unification does not happen (except, possibly, under his direction and under his control) and he has been more than successful in this so far.
Currently, Nestorović is in a better position on paper - primarily because of his specific charisma and his "medical" internet posts (health benefits of baking soda, garlic, etc.). But his political record is disastrous, it is a big question how much can be counted in the opposition at all, his initial political and parliamentary group fell apart several times and if we except one short reply, he had exactly zero appearances in the Assembly.
On the other hand, despite the recent - from my point of view - many very good statements and announcements by Miloš Jovanović, Predrag Marsenić and other leaders of the "New" DSS and "Monarchists", it seems that some shadows from the previous period are still hovering over the "NADA" coalition, as well as the general frustration of that right-wing and national part of the political spectrum due to the disunited performance of the national parties in the December 2023 elections.
In principle, I would personally suggest to all the mentioned actors (both "right" and "left") a more consolidated performance, not only for the security of the census, but also because in a heated and polarized atmosphere, with two dominant subjects, the space for otherwise logical and legitimate ideological differences is narrowing for everyone else.
SUPPORTERS AND OPPONENTS OF THE GOVERNMENT
......
Be that as it may (and there should be no doubt that Vučić will do everything to turn out as favorably as possible for him), the fact remains that, on the whole, there are undoubtedly more opponents of this government in Serbia than supporters. And even by about ten percent (after all, regardless of these party ratings, see, for example, the results of the answers to the question about Expo).
So what is it that can potentially threaten that seemingly victorious campaign? First of all, a possible brutal theft, which would directly change the will of the citizens. But it, although it cannot be ruled out, can hardly have dramatic proportions. After all, despite popular representations, the biggest irregularities and thefts in the Serbian electoral process have been happening for a long time not on the election day itself, but long before it - from inequality in the campaign, to manipulation of voter lists.
The second thing is, I'm afraid, much more dangerous. That what he has been doing for years with the opposition, Vučić is now focusing and applying to the student list. He may try to compromise it or tear it apart. That is, both. And I think (and I would like to be wrong) that in the coming days we should expect increased efforts of the regime in that direction, i.e. that, using certain perceived weaknesses of student organization and his infamous "gray" logistics, he will try to divide the student list or at least reduce it to an "acceptable" thirty percent.
WHAT IF VUCIC'S PLAN SUCCEEDS??
......
Realistically and objectively speaking (and this is, in Serbian politics and the Serbian public, and more broadly, definitely "the path less often taken"), the responsibility, and not a small one, in case of eventual failure lies on both anti-regime sides. Proportionately larger on whoever is larger - and that is undoubtedly the student list at the moment. Therefore, the inspirers, creators and "founding fathers" of this list will bear the responsibility (of course, the merits) for the moves they make, and primarily for the decision to radically depart from the parliamentary opposition, as well as almost all civic movements and organizations.
Although unfair (especially when we keep in mind certain names that were on the "student list" or around it in the versions leaked so far), that decision was not completely unreasonable. In the SNS of Serbia, opposition is slandered even as a word, and especially in a personal sense, and it might seem to some that keeping away from it is a "wise tactical move" in order to win over "softer" progressive voters. But let's not lie - except, possibly, at the very beginning of the protest, such fencing did not have a great impact on the army of Vučić's followers, while on the other hand, it became a serious bone of contention within the anti-regime front.
Instead of diminishing, that rift has only grown over time. And something that could have seemed like a "cunning strategy" at the beginning, turned into one of the most important pillars of the regime's campaign to stay in power. And provided Aleksandar Vučić with almost unlimited opportunities to seiri, "stew", "fry" and broker according to the opposition, i.e. anti-regime corps.
From the first day, I was bothered by exclusivism and a kind of messianism on the part of the leaders and most ardent supporters of the student movement. At the same time, to be honest, there was much more of this among "fans" and "candidates for candidates" on the student list than among the students themselves. And the opposition public, eager for a victory at last or at least the hope of victory, generally supported them in this.
STRATEGIC CHALLENGES, TACTICAL POSITIONS
......
In any case, the expectations of the "blockade students" and their active promoters that all other anti-regime actors would withdraw and give up in their favor were not realistic. But they seriously wounded and damaged more or less all opposition formations, throwing them to the brink of censorship, frustration and despair. And similar to the real wars that we are currently seeing in the world, periodic "appeals for peace", an agreement or at least a truce generally do not have much resonance.
And just as in a real war "crimes" (in this case, fortunately, only verbal ones) are committed on all sides, so there are no completely innocent people here either. But for the current state of the anti-regime front (in both good and bad aspects) the most deserving and responsible is the strongest one on that part of the spectrum - and that, for more than a year, has undoubtedly been the "student list". They decided on this strategy ("We, the people - and nothing in between"), categorically, permanently and with indignation rejected any idea of a joint performance of all anti-regime forces and de facto practically without a fight agreed to go to the upcoming elections under unchanged i.e. "Vučić's terms".
In my opinion, it was all quite wrong and problematic. But, it must be said (and you can see it with the naked eye), it brought support that the opposition in Vučić's era had never reached. And now the strategists of the "student list" face a dilemma (only apparently "sweet") whether they will continue to trample and destroy the parliamentary opposition in the hope of taking over their remaining voters, or whether they will make some tactical compromise with the opposition in order to secure a majority over Vučić's list. I would recommend the latter and not for sentimental reasons - from Machiavelli to the Bolsheviks and our days we know that there is no sentimentality in politics - but because of the regime coup that I mentioned above and which, in my opinion, is coming their way.
On the other hand, the opposition, which in such circumstances decides to go to the elections against the wishes of the student list, takes on its shoulders a huge responsibility not only for its own result (which goes without saying), but also exposes itself to an increased risk of general stigma in case of failure.
I have already said that in the past period the parliamentary opposition was the target and victim of a terrible campaign by both the regime's media and its own dissidents and disillusioned followers. And it was often not clear which of those attacks were more brutal, cruel and unjust.
Even with the frequently debatable personnel policy, mini-cartelization and oligarchic tendencies, which are more or less endemic ailments of every party organization, the Serbian opposition parties, together with the few media and critical intellectuals, still represented at least a pebble in the shoe of Vučić's omnipotence, and for years, with no small sacrifices of their activists and leaders, they were a kind of dam against the malignant tendencies of growing authoritarianism and the cult of personality.
Do they need conceptual and personnel renewal and ventilation? Yes, certainly. Is there room and need for new people and new political subjects? He certainly has. They are even welcome. And that process happens naturally and spontaneously. Can the student list beat Vučić's list by itself in Vučić's elections? Maybe, but not sure. And that's why, I would say, we shouldn't lightly give up options that would make that victory somewhat more likely.
Should everyone disappear from the scene so that new, "young, beautiful and smart" political forces can march onto the historical stage? Not at all. More precisely, it is neither possible (except in kitschy socialist realist films and "anti-political" dreams), nor feasible, nor would it necessarily and automatically result in positive outcomes. After all, as some readers surely remember, this "young, beautiful and smart" is an allusion to the slogan under which Milo Đukanović, Momir Bulatović and Svetozar Marović once stepped onto the Montenegrin political stage, so we know how and where it ended.
All this, of course, does not mean that there is no room for moderate optimism regarding the future (on the contrary!), as well as the statement that Vučić (at least at the republican level) is entering an election story for the first time, which, at the very least, does not have the already known and guaranteed ending.
This game will be played until the final whistle.
The author is the editor-in-chief of NSPM
Only in August: Save three thousand dinars on the annual subscription to the digital edition of "Vremena"! _Take advantage of the discount here and support independent journalism.
