The current government (SNS plus SPS and satellites) enjoys the support of up to a third of the total number of adult citizens of Serbia (32,8 percent), while the rest goes to opponents of the government (41,3 percent) and those "undecided" (25,9 percent). It should be noted that this is the first time since the SNS came to power that such an advantage of the opposition has been detected in research at the republican level.
Serbia (without Kosovo), 1–10. March 2025, telephone survey, representative sample, 1050 respondents
Just as we said on these pages two weeks ago - on Saturday, March 15, there was no "storm on the Bastille", nor on the "Winter Castle" on Andrićevo venc. There were neither symbolic nor real shots from the "Aurora" to triumphantly herald the dawn of a new age. There was no bloodshed, raids on institutions, arson and chaos that were threatened and apocalyptically announced by Aleksandar Vučić and his media machinery for days. And of course, it's good that it wasn't.
Thousands of Romanians did not loot Belgrade apartments during the protest. Just as there are no billions that were allegedly invested from outside in his overthrow "because he fights and loves Serbia". Admittedly, there was something towards the very end of the fifteen-minute silence in Kralja Milana Street, somewhere between "London" and "Cvetni trg" - and that "something" will, in all likelihood, be part of the international investigation in the coming period.
But let's focus on what undoubtedly happened and why this March 15 will go down in the annals of political life in the Serbian capital. It was the largest gathering in the political history of Serbia. There were hundreds of thousands of citizens in protest on the streets of Belgrade (realistically, between 300 and 500 thousand during the day). There was a symbolic and political delegitimization of this regime.
And there was also the obstruction of the city government and the complete cancellation of city transport that day, as well as the halting of railway traffic (due to an alleged report of planted bombs) in the entire territory of Serbia. But that is less important. It was - not counting minor incidents and what we don't know exactly what they are - everything was very massive, calm and dignified. With obvious attempts not to be so.
"BAITS" FROM PIONEER PARK
Really, what is in the mind of a man who is ready to bring the country into chaos, a state of emergency (in which it already exists), and even a civil war if necessary, just to preserve his power? And at the same time, to make the absurdity even greater, his authority, in terms of the presidential function, is not disputed by almost anyone, but only by its absolutist abuse.
In this sense, the episode with the "ćaciji" ("students-who-want-to-learn") in Pioneer Park around the Presidency, although tragicomic, was more than significant and even more indicative. During these dozen years of his omnipotence, Vučić created his own reality, his own world, his own "elite", his own "opposition", his media and his businessmen - and declared all others to be "false", "scum", "thugs" and "rascals". So why the surprise that he tried to "make" himself "custom" students?
So, he came up with a "cunning plan" to respond to the months-long and massive student protests, which attracted attention and support around the world, by organizing his "student-loyalists" and gathering them as a kind of human shield around him in Pionirski Park. The plan, it is understood, was sloppily implemented, like more or less everything that the person in question does (there is also an objective deficit of real students on that side) and caused mass ridicule and general derision. But that was the price that Vučić was obviously ready to pay for the sake of a "higher goal".
On the other hand, everyone, including the external factor from both the East and the West, realized that he was playing a potentially dangerous game and going for a direct confrontation, and warned him against it. And then he, ostensibly, pretends to be cooperative towards those external factors and "asks" his "students", whom he gathered to act as "students 2.0", to temporarily leave the area around the Presidency (because "the smarter one gives in"). And they answer him that they "have to think" and that they need at least 24 hours for an answer - and then that answer, of course, will be negative!!!
So, as in all the previous years - acting, pretending, lying and foiling literally until the last breath. His or ours.
MORE THAN A GAME
However, this whole thing with "cats" is, as we said, still more serious than it seems at first and second glance. They are (p)left there to be a target and bait for attacks as real as possible, by police "hooligans". And at the same time, an alibi for the (planned?) intervention of the Gendarmerie against "thugs who attack peaceful students". In other words, their function and role was very similar to that of the tractors - to physically protect the president and, if necessary, serve as an excuse for any "measures against hooligans" that may be taken.
Am I saying that the President was going to a confrontation? Yes, I will. That is, I think that, first of all, he went to physically protect himself, but immediately after that - or, rather, parallel to that - I believe that he planned a confrontation with, in the evening hours, the thinned out protesters and the declaration of "victory over the colored revolution" immediately after that.
But why would Vučić even play with fire in various forms and variants? I think there are at least two reasons for that, one psychological and irrational, and the other relatively rational, albeit gambling.
But the bottom line is that, despite the appearance of self-confidence and coolness that he sometimes more and sometimes less successfully feigns, his position is far from good and increasingly resembles a chicken that gets entangled in its own political and propaganda chickens. In other words, he has been getting weaker, as it were, on a daily basis these past months. He himself probably no longer believes in the fairy tale about the "historic" and "never higher" rating (although this is not entirely clear). But, what is more important, his environment and the "middle SNS echelons" believe in it less and less. That's why he needed an "end" and that's why he, not the students or the opposition, pushed the story about "Dan de".
FALL IN SUPPORT FOR THE SNS-U, EXPU AND EU
After all, the research that is in front of you weakens more than "dawn", that is. clearly and coherently shows. Almost 60 percent of Serbian citizens of legal age (59,7%) support the current student protests, while slightly less than 32 percent (31,9%) oppose those protests. Holding the "Expo 2027" exhibition in Belgrade is supported by just over a third of citizens (34,2%), while more than half (51,6%) are against it (14,2% have no opinion). And when asked about voting in a possible referendum on Serbia's accession to the EU, the "against" option prevailed for the first time (43,2 to 38,9, with 17,9 percent undecided).
In general, it can be said that the current government (SNS plus SPS and satellites) enjoys the support of up to a third of the total number of adult citizens of Serbia (32,8%), while the rest goes to the opponents of the government (41,3%), as well as those "undecided" (25,9%). It should be noted that this is the first time since the SNS came to power that such an advantage of the opposition has been detected in research at the republic level.
Another novelty of this research, and a kind of experiment, is a table in which voters are offered lists grouped according to the criteria of political-ideological (and sometimes, factual or personal) closeness. And the result turned out to be quite favorable for the opposition. None of the offered groupings ended up below the census - and all ranked within the margin of 2-3 percent. This, of course, does not mean or prejudge that any future elections, whenever they will be held, will be held in such and such a format, but it strongly suggests and recommends consolidation as a condition and imperative for the survival of opposition formations.
Nevertheless, again the most striking finding, i.e. the finding in which the biggest difference between the options was detected, was the answer to the repeated question: "Do you support Rio Tinto's intention to open a lithium mine in the Jadra Valley?", where the percentage of support fell below 20 percent (19%), and the otherwise high opposition rose to as much as 63,5 percent (so, more than 3 to 1 in favor of the opponent).
On the question of the possible formation of a temporary or transitional government, opinions are almost completely divided (38,3 to 37,2 percent), and there is a certain division on the question of the possible calling of extraordinary elections - although here a clear majority (44,5 percent) is in favor of the option "yes, but only after cleaning the voter list and ensuring equal conditions."
It is interesting that an almost identical percentage (44,7 percent) also supports the idea of students organizing themselves politically and appearing in some upcoming elections - with 26,8 percent saying that they would be inclined to vote for that "student" option (and another 26,3 percent saying that they "might vote for it").
It is not necessary to be a great expert to understand what dramatic consequences this finding could potentially have on the entire - and especially on the opposition - political scene. But, also, you don't need to be an excessive political genius to understand that this research was done in "spade", i.e. at the very peak of the current student ("blockade") euphoria, and that, if a series of wanderings, conceptual conflicts, confusion and disappointment follows after March 15 (and there are indications of such a thing), what has so suddenly and revolutionary blossomed can easily fade away. After all, although they are not entirely comparable stories, there are also memories of the one-time election shipwreck of "Otpora", as well as the fate of the list "One of five million" which is much closer to us in time.
However, more will be said about these and other possible political implications and speculations regarding these findings in the continuation of this series, in the next issues of "Vremena".
The author is the editor-in-chief of NSPM
Less than two days of blockade - that's how long it took to see how weak and powerless the public media service is, both from the outside and from the inside. At the moment of writing this text, it is the eighth day of the blockade, and the sixth that RTS is not broadcasting its program. They also seem to be facing a strike inside the house. And the essence of blocking RTS is not in what it publishes, but in what it keeps silent
In the months after the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, the flames of rebellion spread throughout Serbia. The first protests started in Novi Sad right after the tragedy. The authorities responded with arrests, police cordons and intimidation, but instead of calming down the protesters, new protests followed.
The rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, has been the target of top state officials and regime tabloids for months, who label him as an insidious instigator of student protests, an opportunist, "the face of evil" and "the leader of the criminal octopus." How and why a rector became "state enemy number one"
"I'm standing in the cordon, and my daughter is shouting at me 'aw, aw, killers'. What should I do? If they ordered me - I would throw down my baton and bulletproof vest and stand on the side of my child," a police officer from the south of Serbia, who works as needed in the Belgrade Police Brigade, told "Vreme"
The recent formation of the Đura Macuta government is part of the regime's revenge and cynicism. This can be seen most in the "black troika" of new ministers appointed to deal with the parts of society that are the leaders and symbols of the big rebellion that lasted for several months, the cause of which was the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, which claimed 16 human lives. Education, universities, unsolicited media and parts of the judiciary that refuse to listen to orders, either publicly, with announcements, or hiding behind legal procedures, should be dismantled. Those who will have no problem doing everything they are told, even reinforcing the orders with their own inventions, are chosen for this.
Ministers often call Vučić a class teacher. There is no joy or critical reflection in his classroom. Everyone has to bow their heads over the benches, hum and listen. What this is about, the reader sees on television every day
RTS is blocked, universities do not work, and threats, insults and calls to the prosecutor's office and the police to arrest blockers, rioters and terrorists are pouring out from the top of the government. The Serbian state has turned into a farce
Anyone who condemns the regime's targeting of people from the media, the non-governmental sector, the opposition and universities, must not agree to this targeting of RTS editors and journalists either.
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