The fight to stay in power

None of the old political partners are suddenly "good" with the progressives as the elections approach. Ivica Dacic announced that the Socialists will go to the elections independently, which is not unprecedented, because they have done it every time so far in the parliamentary elections. However, in the local elections in ten local municipalities in March of this year, when it mattered to them, they were united.

Regime tabloids immediately shouted "treason" in unison and called Dačić a "Trojan horse of the blockade". They wrote that Dacic's move is connected with Branko Ružić and his views on student blockades, that the Espees are "turning the course" of the party and "opening the door for the blockaders".

Branko Ružić, the vice-president of the party in the function of a dissident, repeats how in previous years the socialists renounced their politics for the sake of their positions, which, he claims, should be changed. And in order to restore citizens' trust in Serbian politics, Ružić proposed an apparently radical tactic - to replace the current politicians in power. He also said that their coalition with the progressives is not "real" because socialists always have to agree with a bigger partner. "And a partner who is denied the right to have an independent attitude is no longer a partner - he becomes a stickler," he concluded. Soon, Dušan Bajatović, eternal director of "Srbijagas" and a socialist, called on "Pink" to say that "Ružić will not even be on the SPS list". When "Vremen" asked him to make a statement about it, Branko Ružić said: "I never had the manners to comment on statements or argue in public with the officials of the party I belong to, so I wouldn't even now."

Almost at the same time, Rasim Ljajić resigned from the head of the Social Democratic Party of Serbia - officially because he has too many obligations at the Partizan Football Club, of which he is the president. In his new withdrawal from active politics, the public echoes the fact that the SNS has replaced five officials of Ljajić's party in the last month. So there is certainly no pre-election agreement with the progressives.

"There are no behind-the-scenes calculations here, but there are real political dilemmas," said Ljajić when asked if his resignation was the result of a political agreement and post-election calculations with SNS or perhaps the student movement.

And finally, there is Aleksandar Vulin and his Movement of Socialists, which is rumored to be able to participate in the elections together with the movement of Dr. Branimir Nestorović. Vulin has long attributed his absence from the Government to "pressure from the West", so he too will not be in the eternal pre-election coalition with SNS. In the previous elections, Vučić's list was defeated by the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, which has a separate parliamentary group with six deputies, just like the Social Democratic Party of Serbia. Furthermore, the Socialist Movement, Zdrava Srbija and the Serbian People's Party, which together have a parliamentary club with five members.

THERE IS TACTICS IN THE MIDDLE, BUT WHAT?

Dušan Spasojević, professor of political sociology at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, tells "Vreme" that all these statements of people who collaborated with the progressives can be interpreted as a strategy to ensure a better position before the elections, and then more mandates. Especially in a situation where SNS, according to all independent research, is not leading in the battle for votes, and there is a certain number of people who are not sure who they will vote for. "The tactic of independence may or may not be fake," says Spasojević. "It is very possible that they are aware that in this way they will collect more votes, and then rejoin their old allies, that is, plan a post-election coalition with SNS."

They probably think, adds Spasojević, that the more votes they get, the better their negotiating position will be, so they can ask for more from the leading party. "If the progressives win again, they will certainly be greeted with applause", he believes. Shortly after the tabloid name-calling, Dacic justified himself by saying that he wanted to extend the post-election coalition with SNS, and that he had nothing to do with the opposition.

STANI MRS. FOR SOCIALISTS

The SPS could be at 3,8 to 4,9 percent of the vote, according to the latest surveys of Crta, i.e. the New Serbian Political Thought, from this summer. Dušan Lj. Milenković, a political consultant and one of the founders of "Sprint Insight", a public opinion research company, tells "Vreme" that support for the SPS has returned, so they are currently "dangerously close to the census" according to all the research they conducted and into which he had access. For the sake of comparison, they won 6,7 percent in the parliamentary elections three years ago, which is not a small difference. "A surprisingly large turnout and just one unexpected problem or gaffe can throw the SPS and all their votes below the threshold," says Milenković. "However, their - and Vučić's - calculation is correct: the SPS brings much more to the regime if it goes separately, because a large number of socialist voters do not want to vote for the list with the name of Aleksandar Vučić. The independent exit of the SPS is a big gamble for both Vučić and Dacić, but it gives great rewards if the SPS passes the census, regardless of whether it achieves such a result through electoral manipulations and frauds, which are abundantly used by the regime," he told "Vreme". Milenković believes that the socialists still make all decisions after consulting with the progressives, although this does not mean that Vučić will like all the decisions in the end. Milenkovic thinks that the socialists still care more about their voters than the relationship with the progressives.

COUP AND OTHER GAMES

Both the government and its collaborators, as well as everyone in Serbia, are aware that this may be the first election in which the progressives can lose since they came to power. There, combinatorics is already heating up and possible twists and turns are multiplying, disciplines that neither Ivica Dačić nor Rasim Ljajić are strangers to. Will these two once again turn the political circle around the government and find themselves in the new government, whatever it may be?

"It is not expected that Ivica Dačić, like back in 2012, will be prime minister in a government led by students," says Spasojević. "Nevertheless, one can hope to be a minority partner. The socialists already did something similar in the Government of Vojislav Koštunica from 2004 to 2007. In return, they will survive on the political stage, which is of utmost importance to them and they are fully aware of that." Spasojević has no doubts that, especially in the case of a bad result for Vučić's list, both socialists and social democrats would prefer to nestle in a warm place rather than be exposed to the wind.

While the times for Vučić and the government were still sunny, and a major rebellion could not even be foreseen, at a joint press conference in 2020, Vučić teased Dacić for always being in power, and only being in the opposition for a few years. "Well, I was there and I saw that it's not good," said Dacic, and everyone, including Vucic, burst out laughing. Apart from that Allanford quip that it is good to be in power and bad to be in the opposition, the collapse of the SNS would be welcome to the socialists, because in the future, a lot of progressive supporters and later votes could flow to them.

A similar transfer, Spasojević recalls, took place after the nineties, when the SPS was on the verge of survival because their voters were leaving for the radicals. Thus, the socialists could now finally witness their own "returnees", who have crossed the path from espeesists to radicals to progressives - and potentially back.

LJAJIC'S CALCULATION

Milenkovic reminds that both Dacic and Ljajic - if they pass the census - have an independent position in the event of a close election result, and a great advantage in the negotiations for the formation of the government.

Ljajić also changed sides, when in 2011 he claimed that he was leaving politics and that the next government would not see him, and a year later he was a minister in the progressive convocation. Even though his SDPS appeared on the list of the Democratic Party in the elections. However, after the victory of Tomislav Nikolić in the presidential elections, he flew over to the progressives and supported the coalition that also included the Socialists and the United Regions of Serbia of Mlađan Dinkić. Ljajić immediately became Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Internal and External Trade and Telecommunications. Then, in five election cycles, the SDPS appeared in a coalition with the SNS, and Ljajić served as minister until 2020. From the outside, the relationship with the progressives looked correct even from the beginning of the student protests. Until the students came to Novi Pazar in 2025, and Ljajić openly rebelled against the regime's violence in this city. He condemned the intrusion of private security at the university there, and he reacted strongly to Vučić's statement that he was disappointed with the coalition partners.

This is where the specific role of Rasim Ljajić comes into play, who practically pulls the strings in two parties, both with the acronym SDP. While the Social Democratic Party of Serbia is a classical party, the Sandžak Democratic Party can act as a minority party.

"With the name of Rasim Ljajić, she could perform both regionally and nationally, which means that they would target voters outside the area where Bosniaks predominantly live", thinks Dušan Lj. Milenkovic. "They will probably chase several minority mandates, because the minority census allows them to get one mandate for every slightly more than ten thousand votes. I would say that they did not receive guarantees from the coalition partners that they would get more on their list." The man who is the first and last name of two parties, even though he is no longer officially at the head, reacted in that manner. Like so many times in his career, he closed the door behind him, but he didn't lock it just in case.

"I really cannot prejudge what decisions will be made at this moment. My political engagement in the campaign will also depend on that decision," Ljajić said about his relationship with students and Vučić.

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR DISGUST.

Both Ljajić and Daćić have the capacity and a three-decade long history of cooperation with various political players, and above all the skill of staying in power, whatever the majority in question. That's why Dušan Lj. Milenković says that for him "the essential question is which of the two major political actors, Vučić or the students, will be a better option for them because their readiness for new political agreements has already been proven". Few can imagine how Ivica Dačić cooperates with students, but Dušan Spasojević appeals that this is not the time for "political squeamishness". Because there is a possibility that, like in 2012, everything will again depend on the socialists and minority parties. "There are indeed different voices within these parties and there always will be, and these are people who are worried about cooperation with SNS and have been dissatisfied for years. From that perspective, this can really be an honest dilemma of parties that have been with the government for years, that they no longer do so," he says.

On the other hand, explains Spasojević, one should always keep in mind the primary goal of the rebellious part of society in the next elections, which is the disempowerment of the SNS.

"If the situation dictates the formation of a technical government with a short mandate, the students should accept it, along with all other actors who are much closer to them from the opposition," says Spasojević. "It would be completely different if the Student List plans to become a political party. As such, removing the progressives from power should be their short-term priority." Of the other parties that are traditionally with the SNS, it is important to see how the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians will behave after the fall of Fidesz and Viktor Orbán in Hungary. That minority party has six deputies, but that number could decrease due to higher overall turnout.

There is also the question of how many rigged lists there will be in the elections. In the local elections at the beginning of 2026, there were as many as twelve in ten municipalities, according to Crte data. They are very "useful" for electoral committees, but also to create confusion and confuse some voters. This time, the appearance of such lists will be even easier, since now a citizen can support the candidacy of several lists by signing. In translation, you sign at once for the progressives and for whatever imaginary list they say. Such lists cannot get too many votes, just as they did not in local elections either, but they will certainly be part of the "colour". After all, this will be a duel between two big lists that can be decided by small percentages. And one Ivica Dacic.