Regime debacle in Novi Sad

Thanks to the unfortunate events in front of the Assembly of Serbia, two magnificent, sad and determined, dignified and encouraging days in Novi Sad promptly faded into the background. Some political conspiracy theorists will say: since the regime was not allowed to produce incidents on November 1, it used Diana Hrka's hunger strike to provoke them in Belgrade in the most primitive and completely inhuman way, precisely so that its great defeat in Novi Sad would be quickly forgotten. And he was not allowed, even though he wanted to imitate previous protests, to make a "pitchwise" on the commemorative day, certainly not out of respect for the victims, but because dozens of foreign media teams were in Novi Sad that day. It would not suit the regime if the main news in the European media that evening were hordes of masked criminals in black doing mischief, and consequently police beatings and arrests of peaceful citizens. Not to mention the air cannon and illegal chemical agents.

Whether the conspiracy theories were at least partially correct or completely unfounded, one thing is certain: what happened during the night of October 31, when students and citizens who came from all parts of the country on foot to this city were welcomed in Novi Sad to demonstrate steadfastness, and during the sublime commemoration, in the presence of an endless sea of ​​people, of the anniversary of the tragedy at the Railway Station - is the biggest nightmare of Aleksandar Vučić and his pyramid of power and shamelessness. Of course, not only those two days, but also everything that preceded them - we mean, of course, the lavish receptions of students (especially those from Novi Pazar) in cities and municipalities throughout the country. The fact that many eyes of Europe were focused on Novi Sad on Friday and Saturday is a great defeat for the regime.

photo: marija janković

"A MILESTONE" AND A TURNING POINT

"Prekretnica" is the name of the student film series about the tragedy in Novi Sad and the protests against the regime, which was shown on November 1 on large screens that were installed along Novi Sad's Liberation Boulevard. Indeed, the fall of the canopy is a historical event that changed Serbia - already on the morning of November 2 of last year, it was no longer the same country, because of the autocracy, organized public commemoration and hopelessness. The gruesome deaths shook her and restored her will for life, normal society, humanity, justice... With everything that the regime systematically took away from us all these years. This is not only about corruption, crime, lawlessness, but about the deep destruction of society. The students gave their will youthful, uncorrupted strength, the lump rolled and over time became, so to speak, a planet. In Novi Sad on November 1, it became really visible, so to speak, tangible. The gun-toting regime media cannot hide it, even if they all sang in chorus.

The regime's big defeat is also the fact that the citizens, together with the students, have matured politically - at least the vast majority of them. And that was seen in Novi Sad, heard from the statements of citizens and students. There are fewer and fewer impatient people who expect that something can change overnight or in one day. The goal is close, but you still have to stomp to get there, all with wounded legs. Those students who marched to Novi Sad with socks bloody from blisters symbolically showed that determination exists and that nothing can stop them. That it is clear to them that, as has been repeated many times before, it is a marathon with a handful of pitfalls, and not a sprint without hurdles. Many thought we were in for an autumn that would look like a duel between two groggy boxers staggering around in the ring. Novi Sad showed that only one of them was groped and that the final blow was awaited. He can barely stand on his feet, but he won't fall on his own. And these are not students and citizens. But even that final blow should be delivered carefully and wisely.

Some hoped and some feared that the energy of the rebellion had been saved. Novi Sad has shown that this is far from the truth. On the contrary, Novi Sad proved that the calling of early elections in Serbia is the only realistic scenario for getting out of the crisis and that Vučić is no longer a guarantor of security and good business, but an outgoing autocrat.

GROWING CONTINUITY AND POLITICAL LITERACY

As we said, there are fewer and fewer people who say: here is another rally and nothing! Or, let's say, there was supposed to be a change of government on March 15, but someone betrayed - and similar nonsense. We would like to hear what that coup would look like in practice - do they imagine the Fifth of October or some other overnight historical "turning points"? What exactly would happen according to them? The police would come out and hand over their weapons, and Vučić and his team would fly away with a plane? Did they forget, for example, that the fifth of October was preceded by the electoral defeat of Slobodan Milosevic? And that this autocrat was previously let down by almost all his collaborators, including the powerful countries of the world. Although he learned a lot from Milosevic's mistakes, Vučić may be riding towards a similar development, but that still needs time. And of course – elections fail.

But even if there was a coup overnight, who would come to power? How would foreign countries react? And a few hundred more similar questions. A government that would change on the street, even if we assume that it could happen without a previous electoral defeat, would not have legitimacy and legality, not to mention what structures could surface in that chaos. All this belongs to the domain of political literacy, which understands that Novi Sad's growing continuity is a bigger blow to the regime than an intrusion into institutions.

By the way, we also need political literacy for the day after. This Vučić era will go down in history, but what will await the next government, one would not wish even on the biggest enemies. In short, a burnt country, dysfunctional institutions led by incompetent persons, empty budgets, powerful criminals who hid hundreds of millions of euros of our money on exotic islands, turned them into gold bars or cryptocurrencies, their media that will bark like rabid dogs, who knows how many unfavorable secret agreements with various countries for Serbia and who knows what other hidden problems that we cannot even imagine at the moment...

Vučić has, and that is obvious, gathered around him domestic, but also parts of international crime, to which he has widened the borders of the state. Serious control of the new government will certainly be needed, but it must be competent, not populist and spoiled. It was not, and cannot be, the Sixth of October as the lay people imagine it. All these are long processes, against opponents who will be powerful even when they fall from power. I guess we learned something from the stupidest political action in the history of mankind - "white tickets".

CAUSES OF THE DEBACLE CALLED VUCIĆ

Here we come to another important question. How did this society allow Aleksandar Vučić and his entourage to find themselves in a position of omnipotence, and to ride and whip us for so long? That is the question of all questions, to which we must give an answer, so that something like this would never happen to us again. Of course, the aforementioned "white papers" are not the main culprits. Perhaps they are not even millimeter guilty, but more a diagnosis of a shallow-minded political passion. The previous government is the bigger culprit, there is no doubt about that. Boris Tadić, instead of trying to continue to engage in political work, would be wiser to write an honest memoir and reveal to us his knowledge about the causes of the downfall, including his mistakes. Of course, it would be good if other actors of that time also spoke. For example, Kostunica. Get a loop and write something, now you have artificial intelligence too, if it's hard for you to hit the keyboard, but make it authentic!

Much deeper and stronger reasons for the debacle of Serbia called Aleksandar Vučić are social ones, including primitivism, mythomania, nationalism, revision of the past, rejection of the truth about the wars in the territory of the former Yugoslavia and, in general, the lack of self-reflection and awareness of the real importance of this country in the international framework. We read these days - some "ultra-bourgeois" have risen up and claim that nothing in Serbia will change if the deep causes of the progressive scourge are not removed. That's about as politically idiosyncratic as believing that overnight the progressive regime will fall like a rotten pear. We have already placed too much of a burden on the students, does anyone think that in this situation, in this kind of social and political atmosphere, they can deal with problems that have been accumulating for decades? And what does all this actually mean - should Vučić be left in power?

Of course, these problems must be put on the agenda after the changes, after the change of government. However, it must be done carefully, smartly, with surgical gloves, not a shovel. The way the Novi Pazar students were welcomed is an indication that Serbia can be a modern European society, and not a society of hatred, forever stuck in the canyons of the past. Also, those who fought against nationalism all these years and decades should self-reflect and see where they went wrong. If your team keeps losing, sit on the bench or at least pull yourself together! Not to mention the fact that some undisputed fighters for all justice at least once embraced Vučić's regime as their own brother.

"ISSUE" SO-CALLED OPPOSITION

Somehow this is where we come to the opposition. It can be understood why many opposition members are offended in some way: citizens do not trust them, students shun them. Some deserved it less, some more by their actions. Their merits are also forgotten, for example serious work aimed at changing the attitude of European institutions towards the Vučić regime. It is also forgotten that they work in impossible conditions. They are victims of the dehumanizing campaign that the regime has been waging against them for decades, against political parties in general and the democratic, multi-party system as such.

On the other hand, this is a historical moment that demands to overcome vanity and petty calculations, to abandon politics as a game of intrigue. If it proves to be the most effective, if it is possible and necessary to create a referendum atmosphere, they should wholeheartedly support the student list, providing them with their infrastructure and support without calculation, asking for nothing in return. It is not only a matter of ethics but also of pragmatism. So the cards fell, what to do! This is how they buy the future of their organizations. Otherwise, the wind will blow them away forever.

Of course, it is possible to show that the chances of Vučić being removed from power are greater if his opponents were to go in two or three columns. At this point it seems unrealistic that it is a better option, but it should not be ruled out. But such a decision should be made very carefully, with serious polls of public opinion. And again without vanity and scheming. If they decide to do so, the least they can do is make a non-aggression pact and jointly control the elections.

Vučić is probably preparing the biggest election theft so far, but it will be a big challenge for him and his collaborators: there will be active citizens at every polling place, and the election process will be under the surveillance of the West more than ever. In addition, the progressives on the ground will not agree to break the law so easily, because now - unlike in previous years - it seems that they could be held accountable for it. In addition, the quarrel with Dodik may threaten the "importation of voters" from the smaller entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Public opinion polls also show Vučić that he is losing the elections, which he - as he says - hides from his associates. If it were not so, he would have called elections a long time ago, because he needs them like a wet umbrella, in order to regain his completely shaken legitimacy.

Basically, if thanks to their foolishness Vučić remains in power, many opposition parties will end their careers forever and go to the barn before him. Especially if they fall into the trap and think that they have the same interest as the progressives, when it comes to the student movement.

WITHOUT LEGITIMITY AND LEGALITY

Vučić's government, as we said, lost its legitimacy, and that irretrievably. But also legality. Not only because all previous elections organized by Vučić were full of irregularities, which is a diminutive for serious election theft. The legality is also questionable because he carried out a kind of coup d'état a long time ago, but these days it is visible to everyone. He completely undisguisedly takes under his control all three branches of government, despite modest constitutional powers. The good news is that it is clear to everyone, and the bad news is that this realization has no value if it is not verified in the elections. The meeting in Novi Sad showed that students and citizens are determined, consistent, persistent, and will not give up their legitimate demands. He also showed incredible civic solidarity (we thought it had disappeared from this area forever), which is a key strength in the fight against an autocratic regime. He also showed the organizational ability and thoughtfulness of students and citizens in the rebellion.

The regime has no "antidote" for any of that. But, at the same time, every subsequent move of the "rebel" must be considered and wise. Self-confidence is important, but it should not be overdone. New enemies must not be created, on the contrary. Citizens should be won over, they should never be underestimated or insulted. Plenums have proven to be good places for reflection and making good decisions, but it is important that they be as inclusive as possible, as they generally were, and that they do not allow passion to decide, but reason. Some ways of fighting proved to be effective at one time, but with the passage of time they began to have counter-effects.

Experts should be listened to, but also citizens. The good news is that at the request of the students, and with the help of our people from the diaspora, public opinion polls are being conducted. Novi Sad showed that victory is close, but there is still room to make serious mistakes.