Serbia's diplomatic offensive, designed so that officials in Brussels to convince that Belgrade is committed to democracy and reforms, it ended even before it began, with the decision of the Netherlands not to allow the opening Cluster 3Free kerosene and daily allowance.
"The Dutch Government's assessment of the 2025 Expansion Package still stands: opening Cluster 3 at this time would not be merit-based, given rule of law concerns."
The performance prepared by the quartet from the first echelon of the Serbian government in Brussels did not pass. How would it be, when Cluster 3 deals with the state of the media, education and universities.
RETURN SEASON
At the recent EU-Western Balkans summit in Tivat, Union leaders already heard the European commitment of Aleksandar Vučić, so he sent the President of the Assembly and the Minister of Finance, Foreign Affairs and European Integration on a mission to fuel optimism. A special panel was organized at which, under the title "Momentum in Serbia's Reforms", the results in the area of the rule of law and improvement of the legislative framework, macroeconomic policy and investment potential, foreign policy priorities or analysis of the reform agenda of the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans were announced.
The emissaries completed the task entrusted to them, they boasted to the regime media that they found understanding and encouragement for Serbia to continue on the European path.
Which way? Vučić's regime is systematically distancing Serbia from the EU because it does not want a rule of law, independent institutions, free media... That road leads who knows where, but certainly not to Brussels. Nothing is accidental. Of all the above, the only thing that is true is that the policy of enlargement is again high on the European agenda. This is confirmed by Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova, but not by Serbia, which long ago forgot that EU membership was its strategic commitment.
In Serbia, the deadline for implementing reform agendas expired on June 30. Within the EU, the Netherlands is not alone in its assessment that Serbia has not only failed to meet expectations, but is regressing. It is supported by Sweden and three Baltic members. No cluster has been opened for five years.
Does this mean that Serbia will not receive the planned funds from the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, the aim of which is to accelerate accession to the Union? Will the money be redirected to candidate countries that fulfill their obligations? Or would she get a fraction of what she could get?
Minister for European Integration Nemanja Šarović says that in Brussels there is not only an administrative struggle for funds, but also a political struggle for the perception of Serbia as a modern, reforming state that is ready to take on the obligations brought by full membership in the European family of nations.
photo: Tanjug...
A BURST OF SELF-ENCOURAGEMENT INDUCED BY NOTHING
Fighting windmills. Who in the EU, apart from zealous right-wing nationalists or paid Belgrade lobbyists, still believes that Serbia is ready to take on obligations? Vučić has been repeating that story for more than a decade. Long enough for them to stop trusting him.
Minister Šarović, in a burst of unprovoked self-encouragement, reiterates that Serbia has successfully implemented a large number of steps from the reform agenda and that he will submit a report on this to the European Commission no later than July 15.
Please? Serbia completed only six of the 34 steps. Such misleading rhetoric can pass in Serbia, but not within the EU, especially not among countries that are openly opposed to the Vučić regime. At the end of June, around thirty members of the European Parliament (EP) from five political groups asked the European Commission (EC) to urgently stop the autocratic persecution in Serbia and protect activists, journalists and students who are exposed to brutal state retaliation for telling the truth about the use of sonic weapons in March 2025.
The commission will check everything and then make a decision whether or not to approve the payments of the second tranche, whose deadline expired on June 30. There is a possibility that around 330 million euros will be redirected to the quartet of so-called "frontrunners". Maybe some money goes to the account of the Serbian budget, but that is still not a confirmation of the success of the reform. It is more about "encouraging" Serbia. It's like when a bad student gets a one, and then you give him a three as a sign of "encouragement". Where is it? What is the EU? A humanitarian organization or a union of states that have voluntarily accepted to meet precisely defined norms?
However, not everyone within the EU is inclined to such charity, which is essentially a disservice to Serbia and a wrong signal to those who are trying to reform. On July 7, the European Parliament discussed Serbia. "There is no looking through the fingers", were the words of the EP's rapporteur for Serbia, Tonin Picula, words that once again made him the target of Belgrade and the regime media as a "Serb-hater".
SERBIA LISTEN FOR YOURSELF
The authorities in Belgrade managed "with some secret connection" to get the populist group EPP, the largest within the EP, to prevent a broad debate on Serbia, which has already become a case in itself. Members of the European parliament previously voted on reports on all candidates from the Western Balkans, and Serbia is a case in itself.
The EPP, of which the SNS is an associate member, insisted that the resolution on Serbia be put to the vote directly, without prior discussion at the plenary session. It did not pass, but instead of a standard discussion with a larger number of speakers, the debate was reduced to presentations by only one representative of each of the groups within the Parliament. The maneuver to protect the SNS was somewhat successful, but harsh criticism was not lacking. Although the EP resolutions to a significant extent set the tone for the documents of the European Commission, they are trying to undermine them in Belgrade. They believe that the EC's annual report will be "significantly more positive and constructive than the previous ones, precisely thanks to the reform momentum that we started", believes Starović.
Ursula von der Leyen can describe "dear Alexander" as a "hero of reforms", but she also had to repeat. She is forced to respect the opinions of MEPs. Not only his conservative people, but also socialists, democrats, liberals and the Greens, who do not spare Vučić's regime.
Belgrade has a ready answer: all of this is the result of sabotage actions by student blockaders and the opposition. Acceptance of the recommendations of the Venice Commission regarding the set of so-called Mrdić's judicial laws, a package of election laws in accordance with Odihr's recommendations, as well as solving the issue of regulation of the media scene through the election of Remo Council members.
There are a lot of manipulations and false improvisations, but maybe the Serbian government succeeded to some extent. It received praise from the European Commission and the Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos. Others saw through Vučić's classic game: I create a problem, then solve it and expect awards. Harmonization with Union legislation is not Serbia's problem. The problem is non-existent implementation and systematic sabotage without any sanctions.
DIPLOMATIC CIRCUS ADRIJA
Serbia once again bet wrongly. She counted on Ireland, which took over the rotating presidency of the Union from Cyprus on July 1. In 2004, Ireland held the presidency of the Council of Europe at the time of the largest enlargement in the Union's history. The Ambassador of Ireland said in Belgrade that, "if we ask", Serbia will open Cluster 3. The Netherlands also asked, whose opposition mainly relates to the state of the rule of law. The "Balance Clause" is clear - if there is no progress in fundamental areas of law, there is no progress in the negotiations as a whole.
Vučić's government is running away from that reform package like the devil from a cross, but it is not giving up selling the fog, even though a lot has changed since Croatia was welcomed as the last member of the Union in 2013.
The merit-based approach is still in place, but new geopolitical realities mean that today there is a catalog of options to make enlargement a geostrategic investment in the peace, stability and prosperity of Europe. Political motives have strengthened.
Candidate countries need a clear perspective of entry, a copy Easter of earlier agreements is no longer sufficient. Each will have a specific reception design, while the EU must simultaneously initiate internal reforms that would preserve and strengthen the values on which the Union was founded.
Reforms from the outside, reforms from the inside contributed to the emergence of more various non-paper documents. Along with Dutch, there is also common non-paper of Austria, Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia on sectoral integration into the EU single market.
Non-paper German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warns that the enlargement process is taking too long and causes frustration among both candidate countries and EU members. A new dynamic is needed, writes Mertz, who on the eve of the summit in Tivat inspired the joint non-paper Germany and France. The emphasis is on the content of the reforms, not the procedural steps.
Belgrade deals with propaganda. The conference in Brussels was only the first in a series of planned events in European capitals. The goal is to present everything that has been done from the highest level of government, in order to "neutralize one-sided narratives."
Potemkin's Serbia continues its tour. Diplomatic Circus Adria.
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