The President's fear of the ballot box

Darko Glisic, a man of the regime in charge of special tasks which those who at least minimally hold to dignity, law, morality and civilized existence do not want to deal with - he declared a resounding victory for the SNS in elections for councils of local communities. The progressives, for one thing, triumphed first in Bela Palanka and Babušnica, and then in Dimitrovgrad and Vranje, as well as in the Vranj city municipality of Vranjska Banja.

The victories were achieved simply: the Serbian Progressive Party practically had no competitors - especially poorly organized ones - no one controlled the goat that kept and counted the voting cabbage leaves, citizens were blackmailed and forced to go to the polls, support was also bought - with microwave ovens, thermos bottles, well pumps and vibrators... Everything as usual, as before, only now with a slightly stronger intensity when it comes to the elections for the councils of the MZ. But even so, the turnout was not very big for this boxing match of the ruling party, which fought against an air mattress in the ring and was its own judge.

Apart from the usual irregularities, which is hypocoristic for what SNS does in the elections, another problem arises here. According to the law, parties should not participate in local elections. Local communities are, on the contrary, a rare area of ​​direct citizen participation, a kind of counterweight to party-organized authorities in local self-governments. Not occupied institutions, local committees of the ruling party, as they are now. All in all, SNS won the elections in which it was not allowed to participate and in which, at the same time, it ran alone. Let's paraphrase the folk wisdom: what the cultured person is ashamed of, the progressive brags about!

photo: jovana kulasević / tanjug

WHY ARE THE PROGRESSIVES BRAGING ABOUT THE QUASITRIUMFČIĆ??

But why did the progressives of the tragicomic victory hit all the regime's talambas? Well, because they need triumphs more than ever. The very fact that they boast so loudly about quasi-triumphs shows that the situation with their popularity is not very good, it indicates more weakness than strength: their rating is in a free, unstoppable fall and there is great panic among the members, the party is falling apart before their eyes, the rodents have long since left the "white ship". How much they need symbolic victories is also shown by the fact that elections for local community councils are not called, despite the fact that the legal deadline has expired, where the progressives would certainly smoke the pipe of defeat. Let's say, in Novi Sad. Neither Glišić, nor brother Andrej, nor Zvonko Veselinović, nor Boske would be enough for them to win, all with the united Kavački and Škaljar clans.

Basically, if he knew that the shares were good for him and that he could get them smoothly, Vučić would very quickly fulfill the student demand, launched at the beginning of May, for the extraordinary parliamentary elections. Until recently, the Serbian Progressive Party was a machine that didn't know how to do anything except win elections (by work we don't mean destroying the state and theft of heavenly proportions), and now that thing is seriously failing. Not only are their ratings in decline, but frauds have a significantly higher price. Criminal clans and various other specialized election swindlers raised the price of their services, they felt that they could do it, that the progressives were ready to start withdrawing the money they hid in exotic accounts. And Vučić and his team are not sure that they will remain loyal to them, even if they pay them well. There were already problems in the agreements regarding the hiring of "čacija" tobacconists, they were much more expensive around March 15.

STUDENTS HIT THE TARGET

All this says that when the students came out with a unifying, for some long-awaited demand for extraordinary parliamentary elections, they hit the target. It is true that perhaps, theoretically, it would be better to form some kind of transitional government that would ensure free elections, but realistically - there was not too much of a chance for that. The demand for elections is obviously a much bigger challenge for the progressives, they and their partners don't know what to do with it, which can be seen mostly from their confused statements - like: it can be, but it doesn't have to mean, just take the medicine to my aunt and I'll think about it. The students hit Vučić where it hurts the most, twice in a row: first by claiming that he is an "incompetent institution", and now he has become a "coward". He must not call elections, which he has been threatening every now and then for 13 years, and which he calls when he feels like it, always sure of victory.

Vučić casually answers the question of whether and when elections will be called, sometimes saying one thing, sometimes another, sometimes a third. Let's just say: don't ask too much for them, we'll break you on them. Well then: the color revolution is over, I'm done with student demands. Then: there will be elections within a year and a half. Then: it won't be long. All I have to do is organize the EXPO and there's the choice! On the other hand, Ana Brnabić, Miloš Vučević and Ivica Dacić claim that there will be no special elections, that there is no need for them because the parliamentary majority is comfortable, that they are even dangerous for the security of the state, but certainly no one asks this trio anything.

Basically, it is clear that Vučić is not up for elections, and that, if anything, he will prolong them as much as possible until the situation stabilizes or until he succeeds in branding his new Movement for this and that. Cynics say that maybe there will never be multi-party elections in Serbia if the progressives realize that they can lose them. There may only be elections within the Vučić Movement, following the example of the Socialist Alliance of Working People. The fact is that Vučić has surrounded himself with people who are very eager to turn Serbia into Belarus, Russia or even North Korea, but that doesn't really work for them either. Their arms are short, as it were!

However, no matter how much Vučić is running away, the majority of our interlocutors believe that extraordinary parliamentary elections must take place. The reasons they cite, for which the regime will be forced to announce them, are different, as is the prediction of the time when they could be held. But let's start in order!

photo: jadranka ilić / tanjug

PROUD: THREE TIMES

The president of the SRCE party, Zdravko Ponoš, said in an interview with "Vreme" that he is convinced that there will be extraordinary parliamentary elections, but that it is difficult to estimate when, since many factors influence it. Ponoš, however, does not believe that the blockade of faculties and bridges will force Vučić to call for elections. Even the blockades of the faculties now help him if he has decided, and it seems that he has, to destroy the state universities, says Ponoš and adds: as far as Vučić is concerned, they can last forever!

"There are three scenarios that lead to extraordinary parliamentary elections. The first is that they will be called when it suits Vučić, to try to reset things and rebrand his new company, that Movement, with the accompanying re-composition of the opposition scene, to which he will insert new players who bring confusion. So, as was the case during the past decade. If that scenario happens, then we will have to wait for the elections next year," says Ponoš.

According to him, the second scenario is more likely, but for him it is difficult to estimate the timing. The situation is such that a major event can realistically happen, a trigger that will force the regime to call elections even at a time when it is not ready for them.

"It could be some tragedy, some new accident, or some new big government affair, which he will have to cover up by calling an election, because elections are always a way to draw oxygen from the fire," says Ponoš.

He adds that the ratings of the parties in power, especially the progressive ones, are on a downward trajectory, but that other actors on the political scene cannot boast that their shares are growing either.

"Vučić is counting on the fact that his shares fall, but that they had a high price before, and that even when they reach the bottom, they will be superior to those of the students and the opposition. He believes that he has more resources and can withstand depletion, buying time. But in a situation where there is a lot of uncertainty, he cannot predict events that can explode in everyone's face," says Ponoš.

The third scenario, according to Ponoš, is a possible economic collapse, supported by an eventual organized civil disobedience action, which would entail non-payment of bills, i.e. a reduction of income in state and public company coffers.

"Considering that those accounts are already in the red, it would be a big blow for them, a blow that the regime could not withstand. A big blow would also be preventing the corruption and robbery platform EXPO. It would hurt them a lot and the only way out would be - new elections! The economic system is already collapsing, hence the great nervousness," says Ponoš.

MAROVIC: EXHAUST GAME MODE, BUT THERE WILL BE A CHOICE

Vladimir Marović, a political scientist and activist of the Local Front from Kraljevo, underlines that at this moment elections are certainly not the desired option for Vučić. According to him, things have changed significantly compared to the period of just a year ago, when the regime arrogantly treated election cycles and their regularity, convinced of absolute dominance driven on the "wheels" of Bulgarian trains and regional buses.

"Nevertheless, the pressure he is suffering from the inside, and which is increasingly present from the outside, especially from Brussels, leaves room for this regime for tactical, but not epoch-making, strategic maneuvers. This means that he is now doing everything to postpone the extraordinary elections, but not to completely reject them, trying to exhaust the forces of the other party (first of all, I mean the students) to give himself time for internal consolidation. Such a thing is necessary for him because of the selfishness he has shown so far and the brutal drive to stay in power, which is received its absolutely reduced form - only by retaining power is it guaranteed to remain free. Therefore, the reasons for both calling and rejecting extraordinary elections - are based on the regime's fear, whether it is present because of the anger of the citizens or because of the knowledge of its own inaction," Marović told "Vreme".

Marović points out that external pressure implies increasingly harsh criticism of European institutions, which come in the form of demands for the establishment of media freedom, independence of the judiciary and fair election conditions.

"However, they may receive more visible indicators before the autumn report of the European Commission. Likewise, the new gas agreement with Russia was extended until the beginning of autumn, and it is questionable what will happen with it next. All this could then be a prerequisite for an ungrateful speculation about the possible calling of elections in the coming winter," says Marović.

NOVAKOVIC: TOGETHER WE CAN FORCE VUCIĆ TO ELECTIONS

Borislav Novaković, deputy and vice president of the National Movement of Serbia, believes that extraordinary elections cannot be expected in the foreseeable future, because the regime will do everything to prolong them. The regime will buy time, partly because of the drop in ratings, partly because of the fact that it has a broad and solid front against it.

"The Serbian Progressive Party did not simply begin to lose the support of the citizens, but entered a downward trend. And when you experience a trend of declining trust, you can slow down that process, but you cannot stop it. For the first time, that party has a very broad, determined and solid front against it, which consists of students, citizens and the opposition. The progressives only won in the circumstances of a fragmented, divided and quarreling opposition scene. Now everything is contrary to their expectations. That is why Vučić will give everything in the coming period do his best to weaken both the student movement and the opposition, because that is the only way to enter the elections without the risk of defeat, and that takes time," says Novaković.

Novaković reminds that everything that has been achieved so far - was achieved through the active action of all actors - including students, the opposition, farmers, actors, lawyers, graduates, educators and other citizens.

"This tells us that only when we are together and when we are directed together towards a common goal, we can hope for some kind of result, bearing in mind what kind of opponent and with what kind of resources he is standing in front of us. And the calling of elections largely depends on that, on our unity", says Novaković.

As for the economic reasons for (not) announcing elections, Novaković mentions the "corrupt Eldorado" called EXPO.

"The nature of this government is corrupt. That is why they will not miss the corrupt Eldorado provided by the EXPO investment and the construction of the national football stadium. And that is the reason for buying time. On the other hand, the argument in favor of possibly calling elections is the fact that time is not Vučić's ally. The economic situation is difficult, and it will become even more difficult over time. The revenue side of the republican budget, but also the budget of municipalities and cities, is devastating. disobedience, which would mean a decrease in public revenues, leads to the collapse of the entire budget system. In addition, every day, foreign political circumstances weaken Vučić's rating. Internal tensions and conflicts further complicate the position of his regime, bringing it to the point of unsustainability," says Novaković.

JANKOVIC: WE DID NOT STAND UP LIKE THIS EVEN AGAINST THE TURKS!

photo: phonet

Saša Janković, former Protector of Citizens and Vučić's opponent in the 2017 presidential elections, tells "Vreme" that extraordinary parliamentary elections in Serbia can take place in two cases. The first - if the pressure of the popular will increases to such an extent that the regime considers that its defeat in the elections is the least bad of all possible scenarios. The second - if something bad happens to Serbia, the trends temporarily change, and the regime concludes that the moment has come when it can steal the elections again.

"This second possibility is less likely today, and in that case, their survival would be short. The current situation is as follows: the citizens' rebellion against the pernicious government has never been more massive in the history of Serbia - like this, at the same time, in all cities and towns, we did not even rise up against the Turks! International support for the regime has never been weaker - neither from the West, nor from the East, nor from the EU. Vučić no longer has protection, no matter what he offered or promised. The defeated part of the opposition, which for years served as a controlled disturbance, now it is largely marginalized - they can no longer prevent changes that they themselves do not want or are not able to achieve," says Janković.

According to Janković, because of all this, Vučić, who for years called elections as soon as he was bored, today fears elections more than anything - and is looking for ways to avoid them. It remains, he says, for the student movement to compile a strong list, with untainted people and the most capable at its head, and to continue the victorious campaign of restoring dignity and hope to our country.

STOJKOVIC: VUCIĆ WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AVOID THE ELECTIONS

Biljana Stojković, a professor at the Faculty of Biology in Belgrade and a member of the Presidency of the Democratic Party, says that it is clear to everyone that the elections do not suit Vučić at the moment, but that he will still be forced to call them, in the fall at the latest.

"The political and social situation is such that the state cannot function, nor can the government govern. Entire systems are blocked, for various reasons. They are economic, educational, and many others. He will have to call elections even if he is in danger of losing them. He avoids elections not only because of the ratings, but also because he is aware that he will have to steal more than ever during them, and that this will cause a strong revolt of awakened citizens. He will literally chase SNS activists on the streets. Theft will only increase the tensions in society, but anyway, he cannot avoid the elections", says Stojković.

According to her, the elections will be called in the fall because it is obvious that neither the students nor the citizens who have now organized themselves into assemblies - will not give up their demands. Despite the fact that the universities and their professors are loosening their resolve, the students are not backing down and are not ready to give up on their ideas, for which I congratulate them, she says.

MILIC: THE SNS TERM HAS EXPIRED

On the other hand, Dragan J. Milić, a Niš surgeon whose group of citizens achieved exceptional results in last year's local elections, believes that extraordinary parliamentary elections will not take place, at least not soon, because SNS is aware that it cannot win those elections.

"They don't have that many TV sets, refrigerators, and washing machines that they would give to the citizens of Serbia for a safe vote. Maybe they could 'move' the majority with some other election gimmicks and revive, for example, the dead who would vote for them at least for one day. However, they know that this would lead to an explosion of popular discontent. The progressives have entered a dead end with their arrogance from which they cannot get out," says Milić in an interview with "Vreme".

According to Milić, Vučić is trying to rebrand the "failed SNS" into some kind of "new" movement with the motto "We don't give power".

"I don't expect the elections before the end of next year, realistically - April 2027, when the regular presidential elections will take place, during which the final change of power will take place. The Serbian Progressive Party is now buying time and waiting and hoping for some miracle that will enable it to continue ruling. However, the term of the SNS has expired. The vast majority of SNS VIPs are aware of this, and that is why they are looking for an exit strategy for themselves and the acquired capital. The question is how much influence they have on the main 'designs' "makers" in the party and whether they have the courage to oppose the decision to preserve power at all costs," says Milić.