Croatian officials and the media have repeatedly stated that Serbia has a new supersonic quasi-ballistic missile by rocket Chinese-made CM-400, whose range is at least 250 kilometers. An air-to-ground missile was spotted on a MiG-29 fighter plane, and Plenković announced that he had written to the Secretary General about it. NATO Mark Rutte, etc.
photo: Tanjug / Ministry of Defense / Miloš Savić...fewer and fewer people
RENEWAL OF TECHNOLOGY AND SHORTAGE OF PEOPLE
"There is no doubt that in the past decade, Serbia has invested huge financial resources in the acquisition of new and used weapons, and in the modernization of the domestic weaponsVojkan Kostić, editor-in-chief of the BETA agency, told Vreme. "Exact information is not available, but it can be indirectly concluded that three billion dollars were spent on weapons from the end of 2016 to 2024, after which a contract was signed for the purchase of Rafal aircraft for 2,7 billion euros." To all this, we should add purchases from domestic factories and several very valuable contracts for the purchase of weapons from Israel, which in total may exceed the amount of two billion dollars. There isn't a single segment of the Serbian armed forces that hasn't received a new asset in the past decade or in which the modernization of existing ones hasn't been initiated - from mechanized and tank units, through artillery, air surveillance, anti-aircraft defense and aviation." According to the prestigious Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Serbia ranks 37th in the world in terms of arms imports. In the first half of the past decade, Serbia's share in the world's arms imports increased from 0,2 to 0,6 percent, which is an increase of some 200 percent. "61 percent of arms imports come from China," continues Kostić, "from France 12 percent, and from Russia seven percent, but it is possible that some recent acquisitions were not included in those statistics and that the real picture is somewhat different. On the other hand, there can be a lot of debate about whether the money is spent as planned, whether systems acquired from different sources can be purposefully integrated and whether that process sometimes takes too long, but it is not in dispute that many weapons arrived or were ordered."
The main question, to that extent, is not whether Serbia has the money for new weapons, but whether it has the people who will use them. "It's no secret that the units of the Serbian Armed Forces are insufficiently staffed," says Kostić, "that the age structure of officers and soldiers is unfavorable and that professionalization has failed spectacularly as a concept, which calls into question the existence of any usable reserve. Perennial stories about the return of the obligation to serve in the military are a direct consequence of those problems, but the difficult political challenges faced by the government in Serbia since the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad are the main obstacle to implementing that idea."
Then, we ask Kostić, didn't the whole story with weapons resonate too strongly? "The whole story has been 'overblown' by the media, given that Serbia has had offensive potential of similar capacities at least since the fall of last year. Namely, at the 'Strength of Unity' parade, which was held in New Belgrade in September of last year, Serbia demonstrated that it possesses an Israeli self-propelled multi-barrel missile launcher 'Pulse', which also has missiles with a range of about 300 kilometers. At the time, that premiere went almost unnoticed, even though it was the first moment when the Serbian Armed Forces received a strategic offensive capabilities of that level. Perhaps the reason for this alarm is the fact that this new CM-400 missile is Chinese and that such a military infiltration by China into the hinterland of the European Union and NATO has not yet been recorded. Until now, Serbia has acquired air defense systems from China."
INSTALLATION AND PERCENTAGES
And what about the (regime's) story that Croatia, Albania and Kosovo are preparing to attack Serbia? "The claims that Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina are preparing to attack Serbia one day of the week are completely unfounded," says Kostić and continues, "as such, they can only serve political purposes. It should be borne in mind that Serbia cannot go to war with Croatia or Albania, but possibly only with NATO, of which those countries are full members. Croatia's foreign policy is aligned with EU policy, and the development of its military potential is in accordance with the system of collective defense to which it belongs since it joined NATO wants to tell us that NATO has a plan to threaten us and that we should prepare for a new conflict with that alliance, which is why all the talk about Serbia being threatened by some kind of alliance is redundant. Albania does not have combat aviation, tanks, or long-range artillery either can conventionally threaten Serbia? Of course the relationship between those two states and one territory cannot be considered friendly towards Serbia, but we cannot speak of any real danger."
Finally, we ask Kostić, where does such talk about Serbia's military power come from, on which the regime's propaganda tools insist? "On the external front", says Kostić, "the Serbian government 'buys' the favor of the countries it cooperates with and ensures its survival in power with significant military purchases. On the internal front, it is known that the army is traditionally popular among the people because it is still perceived as one of the few functional institutions of the state (how realistic this is - is another question). Secondly, the current government wants to show that it still controls the instruments of force, which is part of the consolidation process carried out after long-term student and civil unrest protests that have shaken the ruling coalition. Thirdly, there is a need to renew the armaments inherited from the JNA, and this is completely in line with the current European and global trends. And, more importantly, the price depends on the quantity, the delivery time and the international relations. The same tank can cost as much as 28 million for us Let's make an agreement let's agree not to tell anyone what we've agreed on, there's still a lot of room for commissions and percentages."
photo: Zoran Mrđa / FonetDEMONSTRATION OF FORCE: To whom or what?
YOU'LL SEE HIM IN A MINUTE, YOU DON'T SEE HIM FOR A MINUTE
When asked how he understands the "serious build-up" of the Serbian Armed Forces with armaments, Petar Bošković, a military commentator and member of the presidency of the Serbia Center (SRCE) party, says that it is "a cause and effect product of Aleksandar Vučić's broker foreign policy. However, far more important than that is the fact that the Serbian Armed Forces is in a serious morale and personnel problem. Suffice it to say that in the last six or seven years, more than 15.000 people have left the Army. The nepotism that took over and now the decade-long staffing of the SNS led to the fact that only party affiliation is seen in the Army, because how else to explain the dizzying promotions of individuals who until yesterday had criminal charges, such as General Bandić, Momčilović and others."
Nevertheless, Chinese-made missiles caused reactions in the West, especially in Croatia. "The purchase of weapons like CM-400 supersonic missiles," says Bošković, "which the tabloids and on-duty agit-prop journalists called hypersonic in order to be as close as possible to Putin's menacing zircon missiles (and they immediately called them 'Zagrep' missiles"), are just one more in a series of spinning or matchmaking according to the system now you see it, now you don't. So let's go in order. the complete surrender of Kosovo and the last two institutions - education and health, and what he agreed to in the Ohrid agreement - he bought a series of air-to-ground supersonic missiles with a range of 250 to 400 kilometers. Everything else is less important. The fact that the Chinese missile is not and cannot be so easily and quickly integrated on the MiG-29 is important.
Vučić, however, claims that Serbia is neutral. We ask Bošković why the tension with weapons is being raised right now? "In my opinion", continues Bošković, "besides the already mentioned spin with the handover of Kosovo, there are three main reasons. The first is that he thinks that this way buys political favor. This is only to a certain extent, before you have to show perseverance and consistency of what you say and promise in the policy you represent, which is not the case for Vučić. So, let's recall, at one time he flattered Merkel by buying helicopters and weapons for special forces, and Putin by buying MiGs, and then Macron with the purchase of Rafal aircraft at a fabulous price, and in addition to these missiles and the purchase of air defense systems, there is also Netanyahu with the "Pulse" missile system and "Hermes" drones, and in the end there was an attempt by this government to give the General Staff to Trump's son-in-law; in the long run, all of this can be disastrous for Serbia. Second, knowing that the world and Europe are busy with the war in Ukraine and with personal interests around blockade of Ormushki straits and oil deliveries, and that Vučić is deliberately promoting theses about "military power" because he is heavily campaigning for local elections, and he is aware that his electorate is still impressed by "military force". So geopolitically it has no implications, even though his Croatian colleague Plenković, who is similar in many respects, complained more and more to NATO, which is also, according to the same recipe, for internal political use. I mean, a goatherd of absurdities!"
As a reminder that arms deals are far from public view, Bošković points out that "huge commissions in the non-transparent purchase of arms are under the veil of 'military secrets', and that all this is carried out by companies linked to SNS rulers like Tešić and Stefanović. And in order to justify what he is doing, he was supported by the most ordinary military agreement on cooperation in training between two NATO countries - Croatia and Albania, and with the third one, which declared that it would in NATO, by the way, there are dozens of such agreements. However, Vucic has raised it to the level of a "military alliance" and his answer is to acquire missiles and defend Serbia and from whom we defend."
PRIVATE MESSAGE OF INTIMIDATION
"That Serbian MiG-29 fighters are equipped with Chinese supersonic air-to-ground missiles was proudly confirmed last week by President Vučić, who has the ambition to use the country's intensive arming for personal political promotion, even though the megalomaniacal arming is in reverse proportion to the real threats to Serbia's security and is probably financed by new borrowing," says foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić. "Vućić", continues Jakšić, "recently announced that Serbia intends to double its military capacities in the next 18 months in order to strengthen its defense. Arms purchases certainly have an external and internal dimension. The purchases from China, France and Israel, three of the 13 countries where weapons have been purchased in recent years, balance the foreign policy position. NATO neighbors will have to increase defense spending in accordance with Trump's demands, and this also has an impact on the politics of Serbia, whose president also sends a private message of intimidation.”
Vučić, therefore, as usual, tries to play a double role. "Vučić", says Jakšić, "presents himself to the domestic public as a saint, protector of the state, Serbia, Orthodoxy, prosperity... Marketing is an important item of military and internal politics at a time when the regime is facing the most serious challenges during the last decade. By presenting a 'strong Serbia', the message is sent that only the president and his government can ensure security, stability and prosperity for a country surrounded by enemies (except for Hungary). External danger is a classic way of distracting from the real problems that, however, are in Serbia, and not in the region.”
So the classic distraction trick is at work this time too? "There is no doubt that Vučić sees danger in his neighbors from the former Yugoslavia," continues Jakšić, "especially in Croatia, with which he has some personal unfinished business. He considers the tripartite cooperation of Zagreb, Tirana and Priština a real threat. He speaks of the quite possible outbreak of the third world war, to which the re-ignited Western Balkans could be a prelude 'at some point in the future', or 'They are just waiting for the moment'. Such apocalyptic predictions, which the president calls 'realistic', have at least two dimensions - that Vučić presents himself as a visionary, but also that he keeps Serbia and the region in a tense state, since he believes that he works masterfully in situations of chaos."
The regime, however, we draw attention to Jakšić, repeats that it does not intend to attack anyone. "That sounds realistic," says Jakšić, "bearing in mind that all NATO members (except Bosnia and Herzegovina) are in the area, so the accelerated arming can rather be interpreted as a strengthening of the negotiating position regarding Kosovo, which received American anti-tank missiles 'javelin'. It is the inclusion of Kosovo in the Balkan 'little Entente', as well as Kosovo's entry into Trump's Gaza Peace Committee, that is a thorn in the side of Vučić, who cannot help but reciprocate even though the dimensions of the tripartite cooperation between Zagreb and Tirana are and Prishtina quite limited within the framework of NATO."
