Lithium mining has definitely become, and will be for a long time, the most important political topic in Serbia. The progressive government found itself in the most awkward position in the last decade or so. It seems that she is not helped by spins, false information, attacks on political opponents and environmental activists, or money waving, thanks to which not only the citizens of western Serbia, but also all the Serbs of the world - will have yachts anchored in the southern seas. We can rightly assume that Vučić, when he reads regular public opinion polls - which, along with propaganda kits, is probably the only literature he consults - gets hair on his head, seeing the attitude of the citizens of Serbia, and a good part of his electorate, towards the lithium mine that would should be based in the area of Jadra and Radjevina. And elsewhere in central Serbia.
When Ana Brnabić said that the project of the multinational company Rio Tinto was "put an end to", hardly anyone believed that it was really so. The famous progressive buying time ("let's prepare the ground"), tried, for example, in the case of solving the Kosovo problem, also played a decisive role here. The regulation of the Government of Serbia on stopping the exploitation of lithium was made in such a way, say lawyers, that it could be annulled. It was only necessary to wake up the Constitutional Court from its deep sleep. Classic legal entanglements that take place between institutions in hybrid countries, which fictitiously follow procedures. For example, an indictment is written in such a way that it would fail in court or a verdict is passed that is easy to overturn later.
"The point was made" less because of the big protests at the time, and more because of the views of citizens expressed in the aforementioned public opinion surveys. Things had to be managed. The progressives knew that it was a banana peel country that could easily slip on.
For the same reasons, lithium was not an important topic in last year's and this year's election campaign, and not even the previous one. Votes could be lost, and now just look at the dramatically increased number of lithium media coverage in the regime media after the election. Rather, "patriotic" stories prevailed in the primaries, such as Vučić's "titanic" fight against the Resolution on Srebrenica and his "great victories". He succeeded just as well as the Serbian football team at the European Championship in Germany: we were eliminated immediately, but it could happen that we didn't even qualify; we lost 1:0, but we could have won 7:0. Or the stories about the great danger of Vučić, against whom the entire humanity has conspired, and which at the same time respects him incredibly much.
And then the elections went as they did, the government was formed, and the implementation of the project went full steam ahead. No one who even knows the character of the regime thinks that the project is being realized for the benefit that Serbia and its citizens will have from lithium: it is always about the interests of the progressive elite. And there is one more thing: Vučić must show power in this case. He has to implement the project because that way he will show "foreign partners" that he is still a man who can be counted on in full capacity. But all this does not go without a lot of trouble.
WHO IS DIGGING ANOTHER PIT...
No matter how the lithium story ends, there is a sort of cosmic justice in this whole mess. The progressive government is about to sink into the political pit that it has dug for so long and thoroughly. Everything looks a bit like she's in living mud - her every movement, especially a sudden one, means she's sinking deeper. At least for now. They have all the power in the world, all the money they need, media, police, secret services, whatever, but it doesn't look like they will emerge victorious from this position, at least not without major political damage.
Let's go in order. Let's mention the Constitutional Court and its "verdict" according to which the Government's decree is unconstitutional. Who here believes in the authority of the Constitutional Court, which has been turned into a tragicomic repository of party cadres? Who believes that the decision was really made in this institution, and not where all important decisions are made, in the head of the "main boss"? Chairs in this body, which in normal countries are looked upon as gods, are traded like in the market. Let's remember, for example, that a potential dangerous opponent of the regime, specifically the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians, Tamas Korhec, was appeased by being given a place in this institution, with the accompanying powers. Let's also look at the party background of some other constitutional judges.
Even citizens who vote for Vučić (rarely those who vote for progressives), at least for the most part, do not trust any institution except the president. Maybe a little to the church and the army, if necessary and for traditional reasons. But even that can be easily changed. Distrust is, above all, a consequence of the experience of citizens. Then, the fact is that the "great leader" daily tramples the institutions in front of the media spotlight, consciously sending the message that we don't even need them while he is alive and well. The consequence is that - in general - they are full of unprofessional people, whose only recommendation is obedience and a tendency to trample on their own dignity. The destruction of institutions and all public services returned to the progressives, in the case of lithium, like a boomerang.
Recently, the signatory of these lines witnessed, together with his neighbors, how the institutions in this country function. For the umpteenth time, actually. In the part of the city where he lives, strained feces began to pour out, raising sewer shafts. And that in the worst heat. A nearby construction contractor was pumping underground water into the sewer system, which was certainly not designed for that, without any permission. The local public company told us that this is the cause of the faeces tsunami, but that they cannot do anything because the investor is close to the authorities, privileged. Then, after several days of calling, the municipal inspector came and asked the builders to turn off at least one pump, and they - well - had mercy.
Such situations are, to say the least, common. It is certain that every resident here can tell similar stories, and in buckets. Let's not talk about illegal deals when it comes to large foreign investments that do not even two percent of the state and its laws, about which volumes and volumes have been written in the independent media. Who with such experiences and knowledge can believe that the institutions will wholeheartedly and thoroughly control a high-risk project such as a lithium mine, which can potentially have unfathomably bad consequences for the environment?
Experts who support lithium mining in Serbia also agree that there are potential risks. Where they won't when many countries with lithium mining have had problems. Even Franciska Bratner, the German State Secretary in the Ministry of Economy and a member of the Green Party in the Bundestag who supports the "Jadar" project and whose expertise Aleksandar Vučić referred to the other day, will say that the protests of environmental activists in Serbia are welcome - precisely because of the potential dangers .
TERMINATION OF PUBLIC DIALOGUE
The government suddenly, pushed into a strait, starts to stand up for the word of the profession. Admittedly, the profession has already expressed itself on many occasions, but not exactly in a way that would suit the regime. In general, high officials repeat, a broad public dialogue of experts is needed, who would talk about the lithium mine, its advantages and risks, from various angles, various expertise. Therefore, a serious approach to the topic is called for in order to avoid possible irrationalities, incorrect information and interpretations.
Few would disagree with the dialogue, not even the staunchest environmental activists. But there is one big problem here. It was the government that abolished public dialogue in society, and that thoroughly, wanting to abolish dissenting opinion. It is not possible to establish a dialogue , as long as the government really wants it, in a society that it has torn apart. We have seen what their dialogues look like (remember the unfortunate dialogue about Kosovo). We know that she responds to every "inadequate" attitude with an ax to the head or fierce artillery, not by any means with arguments. So now you debate with them.
We don't need to go far west. Let's just jump to Croatia, which - when it comes to media freedom - is a country with serious challenges. However, if this kind of project were to be implemented there, there is no doubt that dozens and dozens of serious dialogue shows would be broadcast on the first television channel HRT. These would be fierce, but very likely fruitful debates that would allow citizens to have a relevant opinion on what this is actually about. But our government exclusively hunts in the dark, nothing but darkness and fog suits it.
In those debates, of course, not only environmental aspects would be discussed, but also economic and other aspects. Let's say why the price of lithium on the world market has fallen so much in recent years, and what can be expected from the development of other replacement technologies for lithium: such as sodium, magnesium, zinc, aluminum and other batteries. Admittedly, Croatia would not discuss whether it is possible to round off the entire lithium process, from ore extraction to the production of flying cars, because no serious local politician would allow such a Munchausen story.
By canceling the dialogue, the government actually enabled political opponents and some activists to launch unproven anti-lithium bombs, in addition to well-founded criticism. Beating the government with its weapons, as it were, and it must be admitted - quite effectively. Again the pit that the regime dug for itself. If it were not such a serious topic, a person, looking from the side, could enjoy the pains of the progressives and rioters.
The regime's media are also going through the same thing. And they walk on the skins of the banana-country. Even those who have been loyal to them all these years, despite everything, believe less and less in their primitive prolithium campaign. It seems, especially since the visit of the German chancellor Scholz to Serbia.
THE ROLE OF GERMANY
Realizing that his authority built up over the years is not enough in the case of the "Jadar" project, Vučić organizes a "mysterious" visit to Serbia by the German state delegation, led by Chancellor Scholz. What was the point? The Serbs hold a lot of grudges against the Germans, but they believe in their incredible organizational ability and technical superiority. Now, if they say that the mine is safe, Serbia will flourish - here's Vučić with a strong argument. Especially if the above-mentioned official of the German Greens, the party that "hates" Vučić, says so.
But things didn't quite go as planned. This visit seems to have been an own goal. And where won't it be? Since coming to power, pretending to be European, the regime has been conducting an intense anti-Western and anti-democratic campaign. Serbia is further away from Europe than it was in 2012. Building on the nineties, the regime says every day through its media and "analysts": Western countries wish evil to Serbia, our friends are in the East. What democracy, what liberalism, what coppers - we need an authoritarian leader who will protect us! The Germans are our arch-enemies who want to occupy us and drain our wealth, and we are the richest country in the world, both in terms of natural resources and human resources. Here, look at Novak Djokovic! All Serbs are like that. And so, you know what...
Not to mention that the Western secret services, the media write, little by little want to kill Vučić. Even Vučić himself tried to do a somersault and accuse the Western secret services of stopping the "Jadar" project. Why? That is why they would prevent Serbia from developing enormously and that highly skilled workforce from, for example, Sweden would not flock to it to work as day laborers. Progressive propaganda is generally contradictory, but it is still difficult to explain to citizens that the West wants lithium from Serbia, and at the same time tries to prevent its exploitation.
Moderate opponents of exploitation raised the question after the visit: what are the mechanisms by which the EU and Germany will ensure environmentally perfect lithium mining? Probably the same ones who ensured the rule of law and media freedom. So ridiculous and impossible.
The fierce ones, mostly from the right, and some from the extreme left, welcomed Scholz's visit with a volley. It is idiotic that they compare the current Germany with Hitler's, especially since Germany has nothing to do with this project, apart from the fact that it has promised to buy local lithium. It is idiotic that opponents of "lithium mining" use primitive nationalist and xenophobic rhetoric and draw swastikas on social networks, but the government itself is mostly to blame for that. Her propagation of ultra-nationalism, xenophobia and Russophilia backfired on her. Now he would like to return things to a rational framework, but it will be difficult.
Especially if we bear in mind - it is obvious - that the government will try to replace the shaken patriotic image with various "all-Serbian" nonsense, by promoting nationalism with the support of Milorad Dodik. Neighboring Bosnia will in some way also become a victim of lithium. It's playing with fire: this progressive nationalist farce can turn into a tragedy again.
INTERNATIONAL POSITION
There is no doubt that Soltz's visit was aimed at repairing Vučić's damaged image in the West. There, no one questions anymore that the president of Serbia tramples institutions, laws, media freedoms and political opponents with boots and heels. He answers them: take what you want, but don't touch me. Let me do what I'm doing, and we'll see later. This has been going on for years, a decade or more, and it is not excluded that the thing will continue to work. It will depend, however, on many current unknowns. But it is certain that the image can no longer be repaired.
When it comes to Germany's attitude towards local lithium, there are different opinions in this country that are worth listening to. On the one hand, it is believed that the lithium arrangement will benefit the German car industry. He will then bring Belgrade closer to Europe and distance it from China and Russia. Of course, it is also pointed out that Europe will be less dependent on Chinese batteries there, and the lithium story will influence Vučić to be more cooperative when it comes to the Kosovo problem. We will not now deal with the degree of reality of these estimates.
However, problems are also mentioned. Some warn that Scholz's visit is actually support for an autocratic ruler who does not intend to bring his country into the EU. In addition, German experts warn that the extraction of lithium could have catastrophic environmental consequences, and not only for Serbia. They fear that ecological standards will not be met, that Serbia is an unreliable partner, they remind that it has special relations with Russia and China and that it is risky to rely on it.
And they point to the development of alternative technologies that can throw lithium into the third plan, but also to the need to change global policies, which would entail reducing the volume of car production and strengthening other forms of mobility, such as public transport.
ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE OPPOSITION
The government's lithium campaign is based on another contradiction. Little by little, they accuse the "former government" of bringing Rio Tinto to Serbia. If lithium is a salvation for Serbia, then I guess the "former government" should be praised. Aside from the fact that a serious analysis would show that this "former government" actually largely overlaps with the current one. The SNS is a party of flyers, we have already written about that.
Admittedly, this kind of exchange of theses succeeded the progressives back then, when they blamed the "former government" for the Brussels Agreement. They also accuse her of the fact that Kosovo became an institutionally rounded country during Vučić's time. Is it Borko Stefanović's fault?
However, the opposition, the relevant and serious one, should show high political and social responsibility in this situation. It is clear that one should be clearly determined according to a hot political topic. But it would not be appropriate to throw out empty slogans, but only serious arguments. And they have so many at their disposal. It is also an opportunity for the opposition to consolidate on this topic. And let fools draw swastikas.
