Lithium and public opinion

This is a shorter version of the paper "The Project for the Opening of a Lithium Mine in the Jadra Valley in the Eyes of Serbian Public Opinion" which should be published as part of a publication (monograph) on which an interdisciplinary group of scientists is working, and which will soon be presented to experts and the general public

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Company intention Rio Tinto to implement in the area of ​​western Serbia "Jadar" project, which includes the research and planned exploitation of jadarite, a mineral containing lithium and boron, elements currently in high demand for the needs of new technologies, caused numerous discussions, doubts and resistance both in professional circles and in the general public.

After large protests and under public pressure, the Government of Serbia canceled the spatial plan for "Jadar" project, as well as the permits that were issued in this connection. However, immediately after the end of the parliamentary and local elections in Serbia, in June 2024, the Govt is reviving the controversial plan and on July 16, 2024, makes a decision on the continuation of the lithium mine construction project. As a reaction to this decision, riots erupted throughout Serbia during the summer of 2024 even more massive spontaneous protests by citizens, who, allegedly, brought the already adapted topic back into the very center of public attention.

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How Serbian public opinion reacted to this topic and the controversies that followed it, we tried to determine through a series of four synchronized surveys conducted in the period June 2024 - March 2025 on a representative sample of adult citizens of Serbia (without Kosovo), and some of the most important results of those surveys are presented in this text.

SEP/July 2024.

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Our first survey in which we asked the respondents a question about the attitude towards the exploitation of lithium in the Jadra valley ("Do you support the intention of Rio Tinto to open a lithium mine in Serbia?") followed exactly at the end of June and the beginning of July, when the debate about this project flared up again in Serbia. That first finding said that more than half of those surveyed, 55,5 percent, were AGAINST the exploitation of lithium in the Jadra Valley, about a quarter, 25,6 percent supported this idea, and 18,9 percent did not have an opinion at that time or did not want to express themselves.

It unequivocally turned out that the youngest respondents (population aged 18 to 40) show the greatest aversion to the project. Namely, as many as 77,1 percent of young people were AGAINST, and only 10,1 percent of them supported the construction of the mine. Middle-aged respondents (from 40 to 60 years old) also said NO with an overwhelming majority of 58,7 percent, while 18,6 percent of them in this age group viewed Rio Tinto's plan positively. Only in the oldest population, over 60 years old, a different attitude was observed: 42,6 percent of those surveyed supported the potential mine, and a third, 33,1 percent, were AGAINST.

It is easy to see that, in addition to the age category, the level of education of the respondents significantly influenced the attitude towards the exploitation of lithium. The majority of support for the mine was received only by respondents with incomplete primary and elementary school (44,7%), while 19,1 percent of respondents from this category declared against the opening of the lithium mine. At all other levels of education, convincing majority opposition to lithium mining in Serbia was recorded. Respondents with high school education: FOR - 24,7%, AGAINST - 51,1%. Respondents with a high school diploma: FOR - 17,8%, AGAINST - 68,9% and, most drastically, respondents with higher education: FOR - 14,9%, AGAINST - 78,5%.

AVGUST/SEPTEMBER 2024.

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The next survey with the same question was conducted in August/September 2024, i.e. two months later. Then, unusually for the summer period, protests against lithium mining flared up, spread and took place simultaneously throughout Serbia, and affected local communities where there had been no protests until then. The identically asked question ("Do you support the intention of Rio Tinto to open a lithium mine in Serbia?") recorded the following results: less than a quarter, 24,8 percent supported the lithium mine, 59,4 percent declared AGAINST, and 15,8 percent had no opinion or desire to declare. In other words, despite the extremely strong and at times very aggressive regime campaign during the summer, the number of supporters of lithium mining remained practically the same, while the number of opponents increased by four percent compared to the previous, June survey.

Looking at the demographic characteristics, the situation has not significantly changed compared to the previous survey, except that in certain categories there is a clearer difference between those who are in favor of opening the mine and those who oppose the plan. The younger and more educated respondents were still in the majority against, with an even more convincing difference compared to June/July, and the older and less educated stratum (probably due to the intensive prolithium campaign that took place during the summer) supported the government's proposal to exploit lithium in the Jadra valley in a slightly higher percentage.

The most educated stratum of society convincingly opposed the project - 80,9 percent with higher education, while only 8,5 percent of them were in favor. 60,6 percent of respondents with a high school diploma said they did not want a mine, compared to 23,8 percent who supported lithium mining. This time, slightly more than half of the respondents with primary school education, 52,9 percent, would give the green light for the opening of the mine, and a fifth, 20,7 percent, would say STOP the mine. In the category of the least educated, we find the largest number of undecided, without an opinion, those who hesitate or cannot/will not declare, 26,4 percent of them.

Another potentially interesting segmentation of respondents was carried out in the August/September survey. We have determined to what extent the attitude towards Rio Tinto and the "Jadar" project differs in relation to the political choice of the survey respondents. 64,8 percent of respondents who sympathize with the ruling parties (SNS, plus SPS and satellites) would support the lithium mining project, and 9,4 percent said they would not. A little more than a quarter of those surveyed, 25,8 percent who prefer the parties in power, did not say anything. A drastically opposite finding is found among respondents who would choose opposition parties: 96,2 percent are against mining, and only 1 percent (that is, every hundredth respondent who sympathizes with the opposition) thinks that the exploitation of ore in Jadr is a good idea. Finally, respondents who remained undecided on the issue of political preferences also opposed lithium mining in the majority and in a huge percentage - 70,1 percent of them, against 9,4 percent for ZA.

DECEMBER 2024.

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About three months later, in December, the last survey in 2024 was conducted. Due to the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad and the series of events that followed, all topics, including the one concerning the project of the Rio Tinto company in Serbia, fell into the background. The public was preoccupied with the event in Novi Sad and the echoes of that tragedy, and protests began, as well as student blockades of the faculty. All these circumstances, as expected, affected to some extent the mood and motivation of the respondents, and consequently, there was a slightly higher percentage of those who did not want to express themselves about the "Jadar" project (20,6 percent of respondents). Accordingly, the percentage of those who are FOR mining lithium, as well as those who are AGAINST, has slightly decreased. In December, the percentage of opponents of excavation was two percent lower than a month before, but still convincingly more than half - 57,5 percent, while at the same time a three percent drop in support for the project was recorded (from 24,8 percent in August/September to 21,9 percent).

As before, the youngest and middle-aged respondents were still overwhelmingly and absolutely majority-oriented against the "Jadar" project. More than 80 percent of younger people, from 18 to 40 years old, declared AGAINST the mine (in the subcategory of 18 to 30 years old, even 88,2 percent of them). However, the biggest shift was observed in the oldest population of the respondents. From 45,1 percent of those who supported the mining of ore, the percentage fell to 37,2 percent and significantly approached the percentage of those who were AGAINST - 34,9 percent.

A significant finding and a certain change in opinion was noted among those who support the ruling parties. The percentage of respondents who vote for the government and support the "Jadar" project dropped from 64,8 percent in August/September to 56,7 percent. Conversely, the percentage of those who vote for the government and do not support mining increased from 9,4 percent to 15,5 percent. The situation has not changed among opposition sympathizers, still only 1 percent of them supported the mine in Jadro, and more than 95 percent were AGAINST.

MART 2025.

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In the first half of March 2025, the last research in this series was carried out. So, three months have passed again, and we asked the respondents the same question - Do you support Rio Tinto's intention to open a lithium mine in Serbia? The finding changed again in the same direction and confirmed the trend of declining support for lithium mining in Serbia, as well as the increase in citizen resistance to that project. The percentage of those who support the "Jadar" project in this March survey fell below 20 percent, to be precise, it is 19 percent, and the percentage of those who oppose it increased by six percent, so it is now 63,5 percent. (17,5 percent of those who still do not have an opinion or do not want to express themselves.)

The differences between the age categories remained the same, but the numbers and percentages again noticeably and additionally changed in favor of the opponents of lithium mining. Close to 85 percent of respondents in the youngest category, from 18 to 40 years old, are expressly AGAINST, and only 3,6 percent of respondents support the intentions of the Rio Tinto company. Support for lithium mining also fell in the middle age category - from December's 17,6 percent, supporters of mining fell to 14,5 percent, and opponents rose to 68,8 percent. But the biggest change was recorded among the oldest population, so for the first time in this category we note that the ratio of those who are FOR and those who are AGAINST lithium exploitation has reversed in favor of Rio Tinto's opponents.

In the March survey, no significant difference was observed compared to previous surveys when it comes to the educational level of the respondents. Only 8,2 percent of the most educated stratum, respondents with a college/university education, support the lithium mining plan, while about 80 percent of them oppose it. We note the most significant change in respondents with primary school, where there was also an increase in those who oppose the mine in the Jadra valley. Their percentage is now 27,9 percent and has increased compared to the previous survey, when 22,2 percent of opponents of lithium exploitation in Jadr were measured in this lowest educational category.

Finally, comparing the respondents' attitude towards the Rio Tinta project in Jadro and the relationship of closeness to the ruling parties, i.e. the opposition, we see that while in August/September 2024, 64,8 percent of those who prefer the ruling parties supported the Rio Tinta project, in December 2024, that percentage drops to 56,7 percent, and in the last, March survey, it barely exceeds fifty percent (51,5%).

CONCLUSION - END OF THE GAME?

Summarizing the above findings, both in total and relevant intersections with key demographic and other parameters, the conclusion is that, at least as far as public opinion is concerned, the so-called. "lithium debate" practically ended in Serbia, and that its outcome is definitely negative in relation to the intended opening of a lithium mine in the Jadra valley. This is unequivocally indicated not only by the direct findings and answers to the basic question, where at no time during the nine-month period did the support for the opening of the mine exceed one quarter of the total number of respondents, but such a conclusion is strengthened by the clearly observed tendency of even that more than modest support to fall from 25,6 percent in June/July 2024 to 19 percent from the beginning of March 2025. At the same time, the already high percentage of opposition in the same period increased by as much as 8 percentage points (from 55,5 percent to 63,5 percent).

Both the absolute numbers and the trend shown support the above conclusion. And segmenting the results by key demographics
skim categories, that conclusion and that trend additionally supports and strengthens. ONLY the oldest and least educated part of the population of Serbian citizens supports the project "Sailor", and even there, from research to research, could clearly see and follow the line of decline. On the other hand, the younger the age and (especially) the higher the educational level, opposition to lithium mining is growing stronger and stronger.

Practically, the political, demographic and social corps of the ruling party (that is, the coalition) represents the only remaining stronghold and bastion of the lithium mining project. But even there, as the above test, we hope, clearly showed, there is a noticeable certain fluctuation and shedding.

It should be noted that the current government, which has always been the main representative and promoter of this project, tried several different strategies in the past period to bring the "Jadar" project closer to the Serbian public, and that they all ended in failure. During the summer months of 2024 (June-August), a brutal media-political campaign was at work in which lithium mining was presented as a "done deal", and all critics were branded as "enemies of Serbia and progress".

Since such an aggressive campaign caused a counter-effect and resulted in a wave of mass protests across the country, ending with a large gathering in Belgrade on August 10, the government suddenly changes its approach and in the following period (August-October 2024) the regime with President Vučić at the head tries to present itself to the public no longer as an aggressive lobbyist but as a "fair arbiter" in the dispute over lithium exploitation ("nothing has been decided yet", "let the profession have its say", "I will be a strict judge"). And considering that even this strategy, although somewhat more effective than the previous one, did not give the desired result, the lithium topic was abruptly sidelined and withdrawn from the top of the regime's media agenda, which by no means means that the project was abandoned, but only that the prevailing assessment was that the given goal would be easier to achieve if the matter was kept as far from the public focus as possible.

So, in a short period of time, the government tried three different strategies on the issue of lithium, ranging from aggressive imposition to quietly putting the issue aside, and the epilogue was the same every time - a further decline in support for the lithium mining project in Serbia.