"We had a long conversation and I have been preparing for this for days. After visiting Kosovo and Metohija, I lived for this, it's six hours more here, so I was just preparing for it. So I was nervous, now I don't know if anyone heard us or not, and my hands and legs were shaking, but I did what I promised to the citizens of Serbia and called President Xi twice during the conversation. It was only the third time, at the end of the conversation, that he answered and gave a direct order to Wang Yi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, to organize his return to Belgrade. When President Xi gives that order, then you know that it is the end, that he is coming to Serbia. (...) I told him, every time I receive an invitation from you, President, I will come, but please, the people of Serbia want to see you," said Vučić on September 18, the penultimate day of the visit of the multi-member state delegation Serbia to the People's Republic of China.
What were the effects of the visit of this delegation, which consisted of President Aleksandar Vučić, NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković, Minister of Energy and Mining Aleksandar Antic and Minister of Finance Siniša Mali? Why didn't those who "in order" should be the first - Prime Minister of Serbia Ana Brnabić, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dacić and President of the National Council for Coordination of Cooperation with the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China Tomislav Nikolić - go on this trip? And what was in that black suitcase that Siniša Mali took out of the plane after landing in China, which was not supposed to go as ordinary luggage?
And although some answers to these questions would be more interesting than others, we will limit ourselves to the boring part, first - what were the effects of the visit.
Media-wise, the effects were great. All kinds of things could be heard from China, and the president was very much in the mood to make anthological statements, like the one from the beginning.
For example:
"President Xi spoke emotionally about the Smederevo Iron and Steel Plant, he said that it is a different story from all other investments, he said that he is personally connected to the workers, that he was touched by their attitude towards him, when he was visiting Serbia, and that he will always take care of the business of HBIS from Hebei province."
* * *
"We will also sign there with that man whom I called Gjao, and now whether he is Gao or Gjao, I really don't know, 100 million euros." Maybe you are laughing at me, Vucic like this or that, but 100 million euros is his... he deals with zinc, the investment is also in Zrenjanin."
* * *
"Every time I think 'I'm not going to ask the Chinese for anything anymore,' I always come up with something new and ask them."
* * *
"Tomorrow I will do something that I cannot yet tell you in what way, to ensure the arrival of President Xi in Serbia." When President Xi comes to Serbia, there are no problems for everything else. And I have another idea. "I want Serbia to achieve a comparative advantage in innovative technologies compared to many countries in the region and many countries in Europe, so I will have strange requests for President Xi, I hope that he will not laugh at me, and that in the best of faith to understand what I want for Serbia. But I have to tell him that first, and only then you."
* * *
"We have so many ideas, in every area, I who have gone through every project, through every agreement, now if you ask me, it will be difficult for me to repeat each one." And that includes everything, from all the railways to the roads, from all the possible companies that we are discussing about their arrival to the fact that in the next six months we will solve the issue of the export of pig's feet, so also hooves, and, I don't know, pig's heads, and so on. "
* * *
"Hey, hello, I'm going to dinner now, there will be the Estonian president, the Latvian president and the president from Samoa." Everyone recognized Kosovo, so I will talk with them a little about that topic. Come on, say hello to everyone."
* * *
"We need robots, we need flying cars, we need chips, everything we've struggled, struggled, failed to do until now."
WHEN THERE, HOWEVER, THAT: The second, "non-media" part seems much less spectacular. Namely, the retinue from Serbia rarely signed binding contracts in China: they were mostly various agreements, memoranda and other letters about intentions and good wishes, with a mandatory program about what is "thought", what is "planned", what will be perhaps to be "discussed", which means that the number of mentioned (not signed) projects rises to a double-digit number. Even what was signed was agreed upon earlier in Serbia - it could have been done here as well, without sending the delegation on such a long journey, and without the need for Siniša Mali to drag such a suitcase around the airport.
First, a contract was signed to take over the Mining and Smelting Basin of Bor (RTB): the company Ziđin Mining won the tender for RTB, which was announced at the end of August. According to the announcement of the new majority owner of RTB, Ziđin should pay at least 100 million dollars as recapitalization of RTB on the date of closing the contract, and a total of 350 million dollars of recapitalization in six years after the closing of the contract.
Also, the plan of Ziđin, which won the tender, predicts that RTB Bor, now in their majority ownership, will invest another 910 million dollars in investments (technological upgrading, expansion or construction of mines and smelters), and that these investments will come from capital increases, net cash flow from operational activities of RTB, and loans from banks that will be raised by RTB Bor. In Ziđin's announcement, there is no mention of the 200 million dollars that should be returned to RTB's old debts: from Minister Antic's statement, it can be concluded that those debts will be returned from the 350 million intended for recapitalization.
Also, "in the presence of the two presidents", a contract was signed on a state concession loan for the ring road around Belgrade, i.e. for the section of the bridge over the Sava near Ostružnica.
Siniša Mali signed a total of eight "important agreements", as it is written on the website of the Ministry of Finance: one is the one above "in the presence of the two presidents", followed by: Framework Agreement with Shandong Linglong Company on investments in Zrenjanin, Memorandum of Understanding with Shijiazhuang Company Jiji, Memorandum of Understanding with Shandong Provincial Transport Group, Protocol on the Implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Republic of Serbia and Lanzhou Guantung Company, Framework Agreement between the two governments on the provision of a concessional loan for the construction of the bypass around Belgrade, the Agreement on the construction of the Industrial Park in Borča with the Chinese company CRBC, as well as the Agreement on the procurement of equipment, works and services for the implementation of the capital project of traffic surveillance with the HUAWEI company.
Unfortunately - again - the public did not learn anything about this potentially most interesting contract, with the company HUAWEI, but it is known that the future (potential) Industrial Park in Borča will attract "1000 Chinese companies", and they will, according to Minister Malog's expectations, "open up 10.000 new jobs". So 10 per company.
Also, it is not clear why Siniša Mali had to go to China (and drag such a suitcase) in order to sign a framework agreement with the company Shandong Linglong regarding the construction of a tire factory in Zrenjanin, when a month earlier the Minister of Economy Goran Knežević was in Zrenjanin precisely about signed an agreement with the CEO of this Chinese company. Even Vučić did not have to go to China for this, because he attended this signing in Zrenjanin. Vučić announced the signing of a contract with this Chinese company, but it seems that the (new) agreement was the most that the delegation managed to achieve. The announced value of this investment was around 800 million euros, of course, without data on how many subsidies Shandong Linglong will receive.
The State Secretary of the Ministry of Economy, Dragan Stevanović, signed two documents - a memorandum of understanding in connection with Železar (unknown about what), as well as a protocol of understanding for the construction of an industrial park in Smederevo, and the procurement of armed Chinese drones for the Serbian Army was also announced.
WHAT DID WE HAVE?: According to the data of the Ministry of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure (MGSI) from a month ago, among the completed Chinese projects in Serbia, the "Mihajlo Pupin" bridge connecting Zemun and Borča was realized, while work is underway on the sections Surčin-Obrenovac, Obrenovac-Ub and Lajkovac-Ljig. In addition to the roads, the main Chinese project that passes through Serbia is underway - the high-speed railway line Thessaloniki-Budapest - that is, two sections between Belgrade and Subotica (the third is being done by the Russians). The fact that the Chinese do not pay VAT and customs duties for at least one of these two sections of the railway has been known to the public for a year and a half.
All these projects are part of the "16+1" project, in which China cooperates with the countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, and which, again, is a small part of the huge "Belt and Road" project (Belt and Road Initiative), which is envisioned as a new Silk Road through which China will strengthen ties with Southeast and Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
In Europe, the voices of diplomats are increasingly being heard, worried about the possible influence of China on the countries with which it cooperates in this way, especially on countries that have not yet joined the EU. In April of this year, the German newspaper "Handelsblat" had an insight into the report of the ambassadors of the EU countries in China, in which all the ambassadors except one - the Hungarian one, in whose country the future high-speed railway should be completed - criticized the "Silk Road" project. because it hinders free trade and favors Chinese companies.
It is estimated that due to the complicated bureaucracy, countries that are not members of the EU prefer to reach for Chinese rather than European loans, even though the European ones are nominally more favorable. The IMF is concerned that some countries could fall into "debt slavery" because of these projects, as happened to Sri Lanka, and as it threatens to happen to Montenegro because of the highway that should connect Bar and the border with Serbia .
However, as much as the countries of the region are responsible for choosing this "easier solution", the EU is also responsible for the inadequate treatment of future members (I guess). Or, as Ivan Krastev told a "Balkan joke" in "The Guardian" in June: When it comes to EU membership, the difference between pessimists and optimists is that the optimist believes that Turkey will become part of the EU during Albania's presidency of the Union, while the pessimist thinks that Albania will become a member while Turkey holds the presidency of the EU. So, never.
