It may seem unbelievable to some people considering what we have seen so far, but there is no doubt that the upcoming one will parliamentary elections, whether they are announced together with the presidential one or not - to be convincingly the most heathen in the fierce competition of all the previous election processes that she commanded"non-competent institution". There is a long-standing rule that authoritarian regimes, when their fall is approaching, become the most dangerous and are absolutely ready for anything. Analysts often compare it to the behavior of rats when they are cornered. It catches the eye. However, in this comparison, justice should be sought for these unsightly animals who are often unfairly discriminated against. The regime, as we can see, has started preparations for the next elections with all its might, although it probably does not even know when and in what combination they will be held: the real one is waiting the moment, nothing else will work. All our money will be invested in the fraudulent activities that we have witnessed all these years. We will pay well to be stolen from, say the cynics. Maybe there is a list of those who have stolen everything.
THEY CAN DO ANYTHING.!
It is certain that in some central office there is also a giant list of people who supported the student protest: some of them have already been fired or have been sanctioned in some other way, and some are yet to come. It is part of a broad campaign of intimidation and a display of sadistic determination, in the form - we can do anything, you can't do anything to us! Let the others learn their lessons.
There is, of course, the abuse of institutions, the police and secret services above all. In a caricature way. Some may not even have noticed that in the meantime the regime has taken control of the work of the High Council of Prosecutors or at least blocked it. This will certainly have an impact on court processes that are not to the liking of the one whose name is not mentioned without immediate need and whose appearance on the TV screen changes the channel at the speed of light, but also on the already thin legal protection of opponents of the regime.
Almost bizarre, but extremely worrisome and significant, is the cancellation of the popular satirical sitcom "State Job", which was not to the liking of the regime as it made jokes at its expense, and "spoiled" with students. Soon, they will probably start dealing with aphorisms, which otherwise existed even under Stalin.
Of course, the events at N1 (the replacement of Igor Božić), which have long been expected and carefully prepared in the regime's kitchen of satirizing media freedom, are a much bigger problem. The goal is that pre-election media darkness dominates Serbia to an even greater extent, especially in the sphere of the still most influential television media. Yes, there are other, smaller media and social networks, but there is no doubt that the team is figuring out how to get in their way, so we can expect certain "surprises" there as well. She does not seem particularly concerned about reactions from the West.
THE BIGGEST CRISIS - THE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY!
The situation described in this way seems quite dark, but at the same time it is completely pointless to fall into defeatism. And to like the posts of various influencers who claim that the regime is invincible in the elections. This is exactly what the government wants. Remember, many philosophers, sociologists and psychologists have said: the biggest crisis is also the biggest opportunity! The biggest changes rarely come from stability - but from moments when things seem hopeless to many! And it seems that Serbia is currently in exactly this situation, pitch darkness can herald a new dawn. As pathetic as it sounds.
The previous local elections show not only that there is a huge chance that the regime will forever go down in history, but that it is practically on its knees. Backed into a corner. The only thing left for him is to jump in the face, to try to introduce a brachial dictatorship, Lukashenko-style. But it's not that easy, things can turn upside down in no time. Friends are fewer and fewer, and those who leave the sinking ship - more and more!
All this does not mean, however, that things will happen by themselves, or rather that they will happen without knowledge, persistence, sweat and tears. Hope, without serious blood. The student-citizen-opposition bloc and all those who support it have a historical responsibility: to prevent Serbia from falling into a dictatorial abyss. This chance to defeat an ailing regime in the elections may not happen again. One should not be particularly educated and draw the conclusion that this block urgently needs to start preparations for the next elections and remind that politics is also a matter of technique, not only energy and enthusiasm.
WHAT WE LEARNED?
It cannot be said that the student-citizen movement, with the support of some opposition structures, did not demonstrate knowledge of elementary political techniques in the local elections, both when it comes to animating voters, and when it comes to controlling the electoral process, and when it comes to other mechanisms of self-protection against criminal groups. They managed, under difficult circumstances, to prevent, for sure, a large-scale theft, at least the one that was planned during the election day.
On the other hand, they failed to influence the official campaign, "managed" voter lists, migration and voter blackmail, as well as the traditional buying of votes. It should be remembered that the regime must and can be defeated despite these electoral degenerations, especially since the migration of voters will be more difficult to implement in the parliamentary elections.
It is true that it has become commonplace in the optimistic part of the independent public - that the government has focused all its fraudulent electoral potential on ten local governments and that it will be difficult, impossible for it to cover the territory of the entire country in the same way. On the other hand, it will not be easier for the student-citizen-opposition movement to control the election and para-election process in the same way.
Citizens from many cities in the country helped him control the local elections (first of all, representatives of citizens' assemblies). It's easy to say, but difficult to achieve, especially without money: but the prerequisite for success is that the movement has reliable and educated controllers at every polling station or at least 99 percent of them (almost 8300 polling stations, so you count how many people that is). There is a huge human potential for that in every, even the smallest place, as the results of the local elections showed, but organizing all that will be a hell of a job.
It was not too often in the public eye, but in the previous progressive elections, the fragmented opposition never even came close to the ideal of having controllers at all polling stations. And we can only imagine what happened where there were no other than the regime controllers.
This also requires serious organization, a central base, coordination, a precise communication plan, a parallel counting system, legal infrastructure, rapid response systems, security systems and much more that we forgot to mention. However, who are we to train them for this job: the students themselves, at least many of them, know how things should work, and their professors can help them in this, if they are not arrested in the meantime. We are only conveying the message of political scientists: this is a difficult and extremely complex job, and it requires that it be started as soon as possible.
photo: miloš milivojević / tanjugHOW TO PRESERVE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE: After the polls close
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STUDENTS AND THE OPPOSITION
Here we come to a complex issue, which is the relationship between students and opposition parties. There is no doubt that the overthrow of a malignant and capillary regime implies the cooperation of all its opponents, if for no other reason, then at least for the technical aspects of the electoral process, as well as what could happen after election day.
There are analysts who believe that the entire opposition forces in Serbia should appear in one column, that is, students and the opposition together (we have seen that it can work in some municipalities). Still others say that the opposition parties should understand their historical responsibility and support the student list, so to speak, unconditionally - this, for example, proved to be very effective in Kula. Still others say that victory is closer if you perform on two or even three lists. The answer to this question should be sought through serious public opinion surveys, but it is quite certain that the "charkas" within the anti-Vuvučić bloc must be stopped immediately, and that capacities must be unified or at least coordinated. It is also clear that the student-citizen block is currently the strongest political factor in the country, that has now materialized, and that must be respected.
A LITTLE MORE TECHNIQUE
Let's go back to the technical aspects, which can be of essential importance in the elections. What does political science say - what should be done in the pre-election period, apart from preparing the infrastructure for the election day itself, in conditions of lawlessness, media blockade and satanization? How to reach as many voters as possible in difficult conditions, build their trust and encourage them to go to the polls? That again requires an army of trained people and a serious strategy. We have already said that the potential exists, but to use it, it will take a lot of Ali Sirotanović.
Direct conversation with citizens is the key. We have seen students do this well. But when there are parliamentary elections, things will become incomparably more complex. Let's just state that we should have clear and more or less unified messages and people who know how to communicate them, that we should have records of contacts and feedback, which in turn lead to the eventual modification of access and messages. There is also the organization of gatherings, especially smaller ones, which are often much more effective. Of course, there is also the use of social networks, in a knowledgeable way. It's not just about handling new technologies, but also about the fact that people don't like classic propaganda, but conversation, and especially they can't stand "spamming".
Although in the pre-election campaign the battle is fought for the undecided, it is a much bigger task how to "persuade" those who support you to go to the polls, but also to get involved in the campaign in some way. Of course, there is much-needed creativity, but this is where the student movement will have a great advantage, both its own and the support of the majority of creative forces in the country. From creativity, the only thing left to the regime is meanness and gnashing of teeth. There is also a safe vote system that must be used wisely, not in the way progressives use it. This also implies call centers that, again unlike the progressives, will work in accordance with the law and decency.
And one more thing, which is by no means unimportant. Citizens must get the impression that the student list holds the entire election process in their hands. It is completely catastrophic that from 2012 until today we have been waiting for an incompetent institution to announce the election results. This should not be allowed, despite the fact that she has all the possibilities of this world in her hands. It costs of course, but it is very important. The IT community can help with that.
As for the antidote to defeatism, it already exists. Enough to publicly show how citizens in urban centers voted last week. There, the student list won, somewhat convincingly, despite everything. It is not clear why it is not presented publicly!
EPOCHAL MOBILIZATION OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL ENERGY
Finally, we discuss all of this with political science doctor Milorad Đurić, who has extensive practical experience in electoral processes, both as the former mayor of Vršac and as a former high-ranking official of the Democratic Party.
Đurić is a cautious optimist. He tells us that the recent local elections are "indicative in several dimensions". Regardless of the formal "10:0", it is obvious that, according to him, "the declining curve of the regime crossed with the increasing curve of the student-citizen movement".
"At this moment, excluding larger urban centers, where the student-citizen movement is at an advantage, the balance of power is equal, but the trends are not: the student-citizen movement is on the rise, and the SNS is undoubtedly on the decline. Therefore, the time - both short-term and long-term - is working for the student-citizen movement. Another important fact is that this time the polling stations are much better covered by members of the polling committees, which significantly reduced or completely prevented manipulations on the very In other words, full presence in all polling committees is a prerequisite for victory in the next elections. The third important fact is that the political situation in Serbia is clearly becoming binary - on the one hand, the regime coalition, on the other hand, the student-citizen movement," says Đurić.
He believes that outside of these two gravitational political fields, there is less and less space left for other actors, who "will face the risk of remaining under the census". This means that, from the point of view of the opposition, it would be most expedient for all "classical" opposition parties to refrain from participating in the next elections and to support the student-citizen list. According to him, political vitality is unequivocally on the side of the student-citizen movement, and no one can dispute that.
"While the regime is facing the problem of 'squeezing dry dogwood', that is, how to stop the decline and possibly generate additional votes, the main challenge for the student-citizen movement will be how to integrate and structure the various elements of its own rise. It is certain that the 400.000 signatures collected at the end of last year represent extremely significant political capital. What is necessary, however, is to establish communication with these people, to organize them territorially and functionally, and to increase that number to four to five multiplies, so that each signatory of support will secure its own group of votes. For the victory in the future presidential/parliamentary elections, it will be necessary from two to 2,3 million votes. This, in addition to the already mentioned control of the polling stations, is the basic prerequisite for this epoch-making mobilization of social and political energy to receive its institutional articulation," says Đurić.
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