As the progressive ship began to sink

The results confirm what some public opinion polls - even if they are not too comprehensive and representative - show: rating, that is, electoral influence progressive it is in free fall even in smaller communities, where media deserts rule and where citizens are much more blackmailed and intimidated than in larger centers. It can be seen from the faces of the president and the progressive chauvinists on election night that it is clear to them that this is an irreversible process that cannot be stopped. Things can be repaired about as much as a plastic garden chair can be restored to its original state, torn into a hundred pieces, under the burden of arrogance and kleptomania. Or, as Zoran Đinđić would say, it is possible to make fish soup out of an aquarium, but you cannot revive cooked fish and make an aquarium out of it.

Photo: Vreme / Tijana Stanić

Given that the regime has turned all elections in Serbia, and even those for local communities, in which parties are not allowed to participate, into a vote for and against Vučić, this year's local elections in Zaječar and To Kosjerić compare with the results of the parliamentary elections at the end of 2023. Vučić and his subscribers then won almost 70 percent of the votes in Kosjerić and more than 60 percent in Zaječar. So, in less than a year and a half, they fell by twenty or fifteen percentage points. It should be said that in Kosjerić and in the republican elections, the turnout was relatively high - slightly more than 68 percent of citizens voted. In the previous local elections in Kosjerić, in 2021 - which was boycotted by most of the opposition, but there were still anti-regime lists - the governing parties received 22 out of 27 councilors, with a turnout of 73 percent.

AND THE PRICE OF A VOTE - NEVER BIGGER

This year's results for the progressives are even more disastrous if you take into account the very visible fact that they have invested in them everything that can be invested, from the budget or budget reserves, which are in their party-private safes. For all of them, these elections had a strong symbolic significance, because they drew a line under the effects of several months of student-citizen protests throughout Serbia. Therefore, the price of votes paid by the progressives increased significantly: besides the fact that "sureties" were paid out by a larger number of reds than in previous years, various technical goods also poured into eligible households of these two local governments. Some received refrigerators, some stoves, some microwave ovens, and larger and more influential families allegedly even got tractors. The roads were paved in three shifts: according to Nemanja Nenadić from Transparency, as many as two thirds of all works were carried out by Roads of Serbia in these pre-election municipalities.

Of course, all this is combined with the usual and significantly bold progressive election folklore, i.e. irregularities and frauds of all kinds - from blackmailing voters employed in the public sector and their families, Bulgarian trains, to intimidation of citizens, in which joint police units and major criminal groups participated. There is, of course, the official campaign, every regime shun was in Zaječar and Kosjerić during the election period. And the gruesome media violence, which aimed to portray the elections as a struggle for the survival of Serbia, in which students and citizens, that is, opponents - enemies of society, Ustasha, criminals, thugs, parts of the Vatican-Comintern conspiracy, mass murderers and what not.

Precisely on a symbolic level, this is a big defeat for the regime. Because they needed a comfortable triumph, that's the only thing that got them out at the moment. And that didn't happen. The government is very concerned about the messages these results send to its interest circle. It is known that a large number of people around them have been looking for various deviations for months, and now that process will be strengthened and accelerated. Many, but not many, are in the mood to sink together with the progressives, now that the regime is further wounded, and water is entering the ship through countless cracks.

photo: nebojša jovanović / fonet

THE MESSAGES ARE CLEAR

Even the key coalition partner SPS will have to think carefully about what to do if it is not going to disappear from the political scene, if it is not going to remain below the census everywhere like in Zaječar or to melt into the SNS forever. The great turbulence in this party, which has existed for a long time, will only increase. And the pro-regime parties of national minorities will also have a big problem: how to explain to their voting body that they should be collaborators of a completely insane president and his party, who completely renewed the ultra-nationalist, xenophobic and totalitarian narrative from the nineties. The recent elections in the Slovak national community, in which the regime's representatives were beaten to their knees, clearly show the direction in which things are moving. Not to mention those who have made a fortune and are thinking about how to protect that wealth. Vučić testified, he sat in the box and watched how the tycoons created by Milošević turned against their master.

One more thing is important here. International actors, for whom Vučić has long been annoying - because he has become a certain political nuisance despite the fact that he offers Serbia as half a piece in a butcher's shop - have been saying for more than a decade that they do not see a serious alternative to the hybrid regime that can be discussed. Here, now they have it, these small elections have shown it. Admittedly, it is not yet clear who exactly to talk to from that alternative, but that too will crystallize over time.

That it was a catastrophic victory for the regime is illustrated by the "touching" scene from the presidential terrace. Better than us, Vučić knows what, according to him, the bad results in Zaječar and Kosjerić would have been if there had been no electoral "irregularities" and if he had not invested all available state resources in them. He also knows what the results of parliamentary elections can be, which will be incomparably easier to "manage" than these local ones. All with cherries and strawberries in his throat, he invites "those who think differently" to dialogue from the terrace. The question is, is the so-called a broad public debate that he abolished, killed like a rabbit, a long time ago.

It seems that the president has decided to forgive us for beating us, stomping on us, destroying our lives and careers, robbing us and making us forget all these years. However, he was at least ten years late. Smart rulers preserve institutions, opposition and public debate, they don't destroy them with hydrogen bombs because they can somehow preserve them when the time comes.

He would like to, but he is too late to be the new Lukashenko. He wanted both the goat and the money.

photo: nebojša jovanović / fonet

A DEFEAT THAT PROMISES MUCH

As disastrous as the victory in Zaječar and Kosjerić was for the regime, the defeat of the student-citizen-opposition bloc is so promising. Paradoxically, he shows that the regime can be defeated despite the irregularities, despite the unequal struggle. In football terms, they played barefoot against a team in equipment worth tens of millions of euros. The rich had judges on their side, they beat their opponents in the shins with football boots, the media threw stones at them, and they drew a draw. It's not a little, not at all!

Well, certainly the victory in these elections would have a stronger reach, it was needed by the citizens, it was seen by the great celebration in the streets. Maybe the opposition needed a declaration of victory on election night, or maybe it didn't. There are better ways of communicating with citizens, especially when you can be proud of the result despite the defeat. Of course, this does not mean that we should not insist on irregularities, prevent them, ask for a repeat of the election where it is possible and meaningful. In the end, all Vučić's elections are irregular even before they are announced. "Crta", which came out with the results on election night and experienced a "hot rabbit" on social networks - because it interrupted the celebration - came out with a detailed analysis of the election process, which is terrifying. I guess in the fierce competition of Vučić's elections, this represents the greatest extent of the regime's shamelessness.

So there is no room for disappointment, on the contrary. This must be communicated as a victory, it really is. But of course there is no room for triumphalism either. This burden of several tons should be lifted from the shoulders. Hannah Arendt often repeated: this should not have happened (she was referring to the Holocaust). Vučić should not have happened to Serbia, and everyone should reconsider how much they participated in it, or how much they helped cement his power through their actions and inactions. But now we are where we are and everything should be done to stop "this" and never let it happen again. And what kind of trouble we are in will be seen only when there is a change of government, and a calculation of the political, social and economic reality is made.

As Miloš Bošković, a Niš political activist, told "Vreme": "These elections are a clear indicator that the struggle of students and citizens against the regime is yielding results, but at the same time that it will take time. The regime will use absolutely everything to retain power. There is no retreat for them, they will push to the end, unhindered. We will have to be ready for it. You can see the direction, we are on the right path, and there is light at the end of the tunnel. Victory is certain, but it will take effort and time."

And the USA, SLOWLY, STAND ON THE BALL!

And the direction in question is the unification of all forces, from students, activists, cultural workers, public figures, to the opposition. At the head, of course and without question, should be students. Of course, control of the election process is needed, as much as possible, at least to the extent that it was seen in Kosjerić and Zaječar. To prevent part of the theft by all legitimate means, to point it out. Then, encourage citizens, send them positive messages, not exclusively negative ones.

Some like to say that this in Serbia turned into a kind of Manichean battle, a fight between good and evil. Be that as it may, here the citizens were really divided into those who receive benefits from the regime, plus those who are confused and intimidated - and, on the other hand, those who have hope. Hope is the greatest enemy of the Vučić regime, and we are certainly not referring to the political coalition of the same name, but to the young people who have given back to this society the hope that it is possible to exist in a civilized and normal way.

Politics is also a craft. Perhaps the most complex, certainly the oldest. We need those who have serious knowledge and experience, long-term strategies and activity plans should be made. The students, as we said, fought to be at the forefront of the movement, but it would be foolish to think that they are the smartest in the world. It is necessary to intensify and expand the already good contact with the citizens, and expand the front wisely. And the regime will shoot at them from the right and the left, just as it has shot at its opponents so far. We are here, at the end of the road, no unnecessary slips should be allowed.

If parliamentary elections are called, one should definitely think about one electoral list, led by students, as in the case of Kosjerić. The synergistic effect is important, many warn. But this is also an area of ​​science and research, so we should give up pre-made dogmatic decisions: it may turn out, as others claim, that two lists can achieve a better result.

TREND SAYS - PROGRESSIVES ARE DOING BADLY

Political scientist Milorad Đurić in an interview with "Vreme" also claims that the progressive victory is "Pyrrhic" and that the student-citizen block has no reason to be dissatisfied.

"Situations like this are rare, in which the so-called winners have no reason to celebrate and in which the 'losers' have no reason to be dissatisfied. So, one could truly say that it is a victory for the 'losers' and a defeat for the 'winners.' the ruling party uses more and more 'resources' and achieves worse and worse results", says Đurić.

He warns that the striking absence of any optimism in the election headquarters of the Serbian Progressive Party is precisely the consequence of the fact that the party has recognized an unstoppable and undoubtedly declining trend. On the other hand, the student-citizen-opposition conglomerate without the "resources" at the disposal of the regime achieves better and better results.

"This was evident in the organization of mass protests in the past months, and now that potential has been tested in the circumstances of local elections. The outcome of that test is even more significant when we consider that it was an isolated election, which enabled the ruling regime to concentrate all imaginable (as well as unimaginable) means in the pre-election campaign in order to win these elections," says Đurić.

He says that these elections should be seen in the widest possible context and conclusions drawn.

"First, the spirit of liberation from long-term political hypnosis, the spirit that students have been carrying for months, has undoubtedly affected smaller places, not only urban centers. This is a very important fact, and accordingly, student visits should be intensified in as many places as possible, primarily in rural areas. Blockades of faculties and roads are becoming secondary at this moment. The effect of 'clearing up' produced by students is a phenomenon for which the ruling regime does not have an adequate response. And it cannot have one, because It is about a completely different political, but also a culture that draws a clear line of distinction (even visual) in relation to the supporters of the regime. In the case of Kosjerić, it is more than obvious that the argument that multiple members in the electoral committee produce a synergistic effect. And third, the opposition parties should carefully evaluate the scope and form of inclusion in these processes a pragmatic approach and assessment is much more important to the work effects achieved in the electorate. And in accordance with that, preference should simply be given to those who are more successful in that", concludes Đurić.

A BROAD AND COORDINATED FRONT IS NEEDED

Đorđe Pavićević, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences and deputy of the Green-Left Front, says that in some more normal and happy political circumstances, the results of the opposition lists in the elections in Kosjerić and Zaječar would be a great success.

"Serbia is definitely not such a political society. Elections in Serbia are not only elections for temporary and replaceable representatives in institutions, but also a struggle for a political society in which important things in the lives of citizens, including election results, do not depend exclusively on corrupt and criminal networks, violence, blackmail, bribery, fraud, hoaxes or manipulation. Regardless, whatever the results are at the end of this process, these results are a kind of success," says Pavićević in an interview with "Vreme".

According to him, the elections show that there are two almost equal political forces in Serbia, which, under unequal conditions, are competing for the electoral majority.

"It's not just about whether citizens think the government is bad, but about the possibility of turning such beliefs into votes despite obstacles and limitations in terms of resources, media image and abuse of the levers of government," he says.

In addition, Pavićević believes, these elections have once again shown how difficult it is to replace an autocratic government in elections, that is, that it requires a broad and coordinated front that would have action unity on the ground, with a clear goal and without unnecessary waste of resources. This does not mean the unity of all opposition actors, but the best strategy and synergy.

"Finally, for the umpteenth time, we have become convinced that it is difficult to defeat this government only under the impact of street pressures and cheer-politics that are waiting for their momentum. They are necessary, but in order to win the elections, it is necessary to develop an organizational structure that is capable of acting on the ground and solving the problem. It will not spontaneously arise or fall from the sky, therefore it cannot be created anew for each election cycle. That is the path to another electoral failure", he believes.