Where are we and what should we do?

Almost a month after the election on December 17, 2023, the Republican Election Commission adopted the General Report on the results of the election for deputies at the session held on Friday, January 12, 2024. According to that report, which was voted for by the majority of members of the REC, the list of the ruling coalition gathered around SNS under the name "Aleksandar Vučić - Serbia must not stand still" won 46,75 percent of the votes and will have 129 deputies in the new convocation of the Serbian Parliament. , while 23,66 percent voted for the list "Serbia against violence" and will have 65 deputies.

A few more statistics: the list "Aleksandar Vučić - Serbia must not stop" won 1.783.701 votes, and the list "Serbia against violence" received 902.450 votes; the list of the Socialist Party of Serbia won 249.916 votes, it will have 18 deputies. The NADA coalition, which received 191.431 votes, and Branimir Nestorović's "We - Voice of the People" list, with 178.830 votes, will each have 13 deputies. List "Union of Vojvodina Hungarians - for our president, for our community, for the future!" in the new convocation of the republican parliament, there will be six deputies, two deputies each from the list of Usama Zukorlić and "SDA Sanžak - Sulejman Ugljanin", and one each from the list "Political struggle of Albanians continues - Šaip Kamberi" and "Russian party - Slobodan Nikolić".

Out of 6.500.666 voters registered in the voter register, 3.820.746 voters went to the polls, and 3.815.007 voted. There were 3.710.978 valid ballots and 104.029 invalid ones. RIK President Vladimir Dimitrijević said that "as of today, the 10-day deadline for the assignment of mandates to MPs runs."

WHY IS THE AUTHORITY IN A HURRY?, AND THE OPPOSITION GETS HARD

The decision of the RIK is final and will not be affected by the objections and arguments of the opposition representatives, for which "all the legal means known to the legal order of Serbia have not yet been exhausted, and which concern the holding of elections and disputes that arose after the held elections", as he stated Professor Tanasije Marinković. If this is how the decision of the RIK is understood - which will be published in the "Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia" - the mandates of the deputies will be confirmed until Monday, January 22, 2024, despite everything that happened after the elections. In addition, local assemblies and provincial assemblies are being constituted, and we will see if the constitution of the Belgrade parliament, which is the subject of the greatest controversy, will take place.

This sequence of events leads to the constitution of a new parliament, which the ruling party announced after the presidential session on January 15, 2024, when they announced that they would move quickly towards this and, further, the formation of the new Government of Serbia. For the first time, it seems as if the government is in a hurry, and the opposition is making it difficult to constitute the parliament and form the government, which in the previous decade was the method of the ruling regime to buy time by procrastinating until the deadline in order to get rid of the pressure of making important decisions.

The opposition united around the "Serbia against violence" list gathered for another protest on Tuesday, January 16, the day commemorating the murder of Oliver Ivanovic in Kosovska Mitrovica six years ago. The protest was in front of the RIK, and then we went to the Church of St. Mark in Belgrade to light candles for the repose of the soul of the murdered Ivanovic. The regime characterized this act as vulture and abuse of the "tragedy", and the opposition tried to send a message that in this case, as in the case of election theft in Serbia, the institutions do nothing, and to arouse some additional emotion in their supporters.

After that protest and mention, the leaders of the largest opposition list will have to quickly decide whether they will enter the parliament despite the fact that they said that the elections were stolen and that they did a lot in that field by collecting and showing evidence. At the same time, this decision is neither simple nor overly difficult, because from the moment that "dilemma" was reached, there were reasonable voices who claimed that it was difficult to expect the regime to bow down and admit the theft, and repeat the elections, and self-expulsion from parliament pushes the opposition to an even greater margin and narrows its space for political action.

A month after the elections where some change was expected, Serbia seems to have remained in the same situation institutionally and at the level of political power. But the election results, everything that preceded them and everything that came after them, show signs of changes that could be the dominant trend in the coming months and years. In order for that to happen and for change to occur, the momentum created in these elections should not be left aside, but an even stronger alternative to the government should be built on that wave and try to win the next elections, which will come much earlier than the promised one. in 2027.

WHAT DID THE OPPOSITION DO WELL AND HOW DID THE REGIME RESPOND TO IT?

1. The public agrees that the unification of a group of parties and movements into one list "Serbia against violence" was a good move. After years of persecution over how to participate in the elections, in how many columns and directions, this time the voters got the opportunity to have a large list on which there are various voices and which are unequivocally oppositional. In Serbia, being the opposition means being the one in politics who will not form a coalition with Vučić and who explicitly tells you so. And indeed, it was a point of unification that was clear from the beginning and acceptable to all who voted for this list - of which there were the most since 2012. And that's not because Vučić is a demon, but it's okay and politically correct that there is an alternative to this option that has ruled Serbia since 2012. The regime, with the help of its media machinery, tried to present this approach as an attack on Vučić and his family, which is, of course, something. Vučić usurped the political space, he usurped the campaign in the elections in which he was not a candidate, so he set himself up as an opponent to those who do not support him. The opposition forced him to lead a "campaign to the death", to "tear himself", to show all methods of avoiding the democratic process. After these elections, there is no one who believes that the elections in Serbia are as they should be, and it is a question of the strength of the opposition to use this fact to their advantage.

2. The opposition managed to monitor the process from the beginning through its representatives in the City Election Commission and REC and pointed out irregularities. As never before, we had the opportunity to see in all the ways the regime compromised the process - from the way in which the elections will be held, through gathering signatures for numerous lists that do not really exist in the political world of Serbia, and rewriting the electoral lists, to establishing some kind of electoral engineering pattern by moving large numbers of voters to places where additional votes were needed. The opposition established, noted and documented examples of electoral irregularities, reported them to the institutions responsible for the process, and the fact that they did not react is not the responsibility of the opposition but of themselves. The state's silence on numerous examples of election theft and fraud also speaks to the state they are in after 11 years of Vučić's rule. The opposition organized protests in the streets, submitted applications to the institutions, went on hunger strike, tried and partially succeeded in sending a message about what is happening in Serbia when it comes to elections through influential media in the world.

3. The opposition gathered around the "Serbia against violence" list showed that it is the opposition. In addition, for the time being, the "Hope" coalition consisting of POKS and New DSS remained on the opposition table. Although it sounds banal, it is not easy to prove in Serbia like this because the power of propaganda and relativization has already driven away hundreds of thousands of people from the desire to participate in the political life of the country at least in the elections. The leaders of the opposition do not have a great and significant reputation in Serbia, but unlike those from the ruling regime, at least they exist, which is an alternative to the bot system of Aleksadr Vučić, who turned all his associates into mere executors of his own will. There is no single will in this part of the opposition, although it is often said that Dragan Đilas makes all the decisions. Politics and political association is not a marriage, it is not an emotional but an interest relationship, and it is possible for people to come together around a common interest, without having a high opinion of each other. Đilas has been branded on social networks as a traitor and someone who has a secret contract with Vučić, for which no evidence has been offered. But such organized "attacks" succeed in causing confusion among the opposition, which is still weak, disorganized and lacking in self-confidence.

4. The opposition managed to interest the international public to a greater extent for the first time. Many people in the world reacted to the election irregularities - reservedly, but they reacted. And the European Parliament, which is said to have little influence, debated on Wednesday, January 17, about it, and everyone is waiting for the report of the ODHIR observation mission, which will hardly be positive. In the last month, numerous articles appeared in major world media that negatively assessed the situation in Serbia and the post-election crisis for which the regime of Aleksandar Vučić is responsible. Although such texts will not immediately lead to a change in the political attitudes of certain governments, they influence the public opinion of those countries, and politicians are sensitive to changes in public opinion. Vučić also knows that, and that's why he tried hard to react. True, not to the extent he did after the "Banjska case" in September 2023, but he traditionally appeared every other day on TV to explain his view of things. Some doors have opened for the opposition in the world, they are recognized as a factor in Serbia, with an account of almost a million votes in impossible conditions. With this capital, they should perform in the future if they stay together. Vučić's political opponents understood that there would be no magic wand from the outside, but they continued to press and demand answers from all partners in the international arena. For the first time, it doesn't look like a mere random action, which Vučić understood even better than his opponents, so he lost control of his behavior at certain moments. For example, when he insulted by name and publicly the observers who monitored the elections in Serbia and who were guests of the country he represents, or when he said that he would publish a written document showing which foreign country wanted to cause a violent change of government in Serbia (thinking to Germany). He managed to "charm" most of those who come to Serbia from abroad because it is in the interest of the international community to "resolve Kosovo", and he is slow to do so. However, he did not manage to prevent the debate in the European Parliament, nor to influence the final report of the observation mission, which could be a guide for further humanizing the electoral process in Serbia.

WHAT THE OPPOSITION DID NOT DO WELL AND HOW THE REGIME RESPONDED TO IT?

1. Although it finally managed to gather on one list, the opposition gathered under the name "Serbia against violence" did not have the strength to carry out the campaign in the right way, which is the assessment of numerous experts. It turned out that the very act of unification was the most that could be done at this moment and that the leaders of the movement and parties were not capable of taking another step and conducting the campaign even better, whatever the conditions. It was criticized that there was no face in the campaign and that the performance was pale and weaker than what was done by the informal group "ProGlas". Against them, they had rich and powerful opponents who have all the big media and all the money in Serbia, and who have been there for a long time, but they started to repeat themselves and, as a result, people got bored because the voters are asked to confirm loyalty and obedience every year. The minus on the account of the opposition was the fact that there was no other list, the one of the right, and the events after the elections show who was the "coward's egg" in the agreements of the right before the elections. That is - that the "Zavetnici" were still closer to the government, even though they swore something else, and that Miloš Jovanović, the leader of the NADA coalition, was right when he demanded that before the elections, everyone should clearly state whether they would go into a coalition with Vučić. or not. That watershed was crucial to clear things up and bring a good result to the newly invented right "We - the voice of the people". In sum, without a consolidated "right column" it was hard to believe that an opposition list could win in Belgrade - which almost happened - when you take into account the scale of electoral irregularities in the capital.

2. Indecisiveness and lack of "leadership" is another shortcoming of this opposition list. It is often not known who is doing what and why, there are no clearly divided responsibilities, both in the campaign and in the events after the election. Although no one expects Vučić to be opposed by another autocrat, more organization would be helpful. In addition, the incoming messages were not always clear, and there was a delay in reacting to events. When problems arose on the day of the vote, there was no decisive reaction, and after the election, it remained unclear whether the opposition had any idea about the results or were waiting for Vučić to announce them. The latter eventually happened. Although a victory was expected in Belgrade, it was hard to imagine that Vučić would allow it unless such a large margin was created that the regime could not fill it with its election management and overturning the will of the voters. The opposition seemed to believe, as some of the leaders said, that "the regime cannot steal that much". The group of voters who were not in favor of the regime also believed in that. However, it turned out that Vučić and his team are not leaving anything to chance, but even so they are not sure about the possibility of managing Belgrade.

3. The "Serbia Against Violence" list did not come out with a clear vision of what it intends to do in the future. It is clear that they are dealing with whether it is possible to overturn the election or not, but these are legal matters. A political reaction and a message to the public is expected from them, whether with the end of these elections that coalition has ended its activities or whether it will serve as an instrument of wider and further gathering. And if so, who are additional allies in that field? It goes without saying that the most terrible idea for Vučić is that they all stay together and strengthen their inclusivity, so the media is used to show the leaders as quarreling and to introduce all kinds of doubt into the common idea. Concretely - the change of this regime and the system installed in Serbia. The sooner we come up with that idea and the sooner we respond to the call of the opposition right to define strategies for future action, the more valuable this political option will be in the next elections.

THERE ARE NEW ELECTIONS TOMORROW

These elections are proof that things are not right in Serbia. Vučić announced them out of habit and because he loves campaigns, but also to show up on Sunday night and say how he won once again and how he is the best. Aside from this amateurish and far-fetched psychologization - unlike in other countries, in Serbia under Vučić, elections inflame crises instead of neutralizing them. He managed to show the whole world that there are no regular elections in Serbia under his administration and he showed that he is a champion in inventing new methods of electoral engineering. And he does all this out of the strange idea that he must not lose power at any level, so he made Serbia a Titoist system in which he calls elections once a year or every two years to show that they are unnecessary. Just as Putin, Lukashenko and similar magnates from the east are doing.

The opposition radicalized the crisis because it was the only way to draw regional and wider attention to what is happening in Serbia. If she succeeds in getting rid of the reactions to the bazaar stories ("Twitter throwing") and works on strengthening her gravitational force, maybe already in the elections that will take place at the end of spring, we will have changes that even Vučić's electoral engineering will not be able to stop. It's literally tomorrow.