Brothers of interest

"Kosovo is Turkey and Turkey is Kosovo", is the famous statement of the then prime minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, uttered during his visit to Prizren in 2013.

When Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, the first country to recognize it was Turkey. Over the next decade and a half, relations between Ankara and Pristina continued to strengthen. At the same time, the fraternization of the leaders of Kosovo and Turkey also marked the colder diplomatic relations between Turkey and Serbia. In the period from 2008 to 2017, Erdogan visited Serbia once.

The change comes in 2017, when Aleksandar Vučić changes the prime minister's chair to the presidential chair. In the same year, Erdogan - and this time as president - accompanied by a colleague from Serbia arrives on a historic visit to Novi Pazar. Thus he became the first president of Turkey to come to Sandzak, where he was greeted with shouts of "Sultan Erdogan" and "Allahu ekber" (God is great). According to AFP, the two leaders then "concluded reconciliation".

It seems that the Turkish president liked the Balkan hospitality - two years later, Erdogan found himself in Serbia again. He did the same in 2022. The latest reception for the Turkish president was held last week, from October 10 to 11. Belgrade dawned decorated with Turkish flags, the two presidents enjoyed lunch with Serbian and Turkish specialties, and Serbia and Turkey signed a total of 11 agreements and memoranda.

Thus, the Erdogan who shouts "Kosovo is Turkey" in Prizren has become the Erdogan who congratulates Vučić on his glory and who, according to the President of Serbia, even remembers to call if someone in Vučić's family is sick. There are few friends like that.

Of course, this does not mean that the leader of Turkey has changed his position on the issue of Kosovo, but that the two politicians simply decided that it is smarter to put that topic aside in favor of some others, which could benefit both of them.

photo: strahinja aćimović / tanjug

THE GOLDEN AGE

The formula for friendship is simple in politics and business. Behind the strong handshakes, smiles, phone calls and congratulation, there is only interest. Even more simply, interest is most easily measured quantitatively - with money. Since the reason for writing this text is the president of Turkey, it is natural to start with him. Along with the strengthening of the friendship between the presidents of Serbia and Turkey, the amount of money exchanged annually between the two countries also grew.

On Friday, Redžep Tayip, as Vučić affectionately calls him, assessed that the relations between the two countries are such that they can be considered a "golden age". He stated that 850 investors with Turkish capital are operating in Serbia, including 842 companies and 20 factories employing 9600 people.

"In the last two years, we have a trade exchange in the volume of two billion dollars. The investments we have in Serbia exceed 400 million dollars", said Erdogan. This number gains additional importance if it is understood that the value of Turkish investments in Serbia just ten years ago amounted to one million dollars, which was discussed in June by the president of the Turkish-Serbian Business Council, Fatih Karadza, and written by the Turkish news agency Anadolu.

At the same time, according to the data of the Government of Serbia, Turkey's exports to Serbia amounted to 2020 billion euros in 1,73, and will increase to around 2022 billion euros in 2,5. As Vučić pointed out, "we will end the year 2024 at 2,6 billion euros, and Erdogan said that the goal is to reach an exchange of five billion".

DRONES IN THE SERVICE OF PEACE

Cooperation between Erdogan and Vučić does not stop at trade exchanges. During the latest visit, they also signed an agreement in the area of ​​the arms industry. According to Erdoğan, the possibilities that Turkey has in the domain of defense air assets, i.e. drones, could be one of the bases of cooperation in the domain of the dedicated industry of the two countries - as well as "a way to preserve peace in the Balkans".

"Regarding joint steps in the field of dedicated industry, Serbia has certain capacities and we have certain capacities. As friendly countries, we can develop our capacities together", Erdogan said.

The story of Turkish drones is not new. Vučić also said during Erdogan's previous visit in 2022 that he wanted to buy Turkish drones "Bajraktar", but the purchase was never realized. What has changed since then? This year, the Turkish "Bajraktar" was bought by Albania and Kosovo. In addition, before the visit to Belgrade, the Turkish president was in Tirana, to which he promised to donate a "significant" number of kamikaze drones.

photo: Tanjug

UNEXPECTED COLLABORATION

Erdogan was escorted from Tirana by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. There, two officials attended the opening of the largest mosque in the Balkans.

Turkey and Albania, as culturally close countries, have a historical friendship behind them. That is why the close relationship between Rama and Erdogan is no surprise to anyone. Much more interesting is the gradual friendship that developed over the years between Vučić and Rama. Once upon a time, the leaders of Serbia and Albania were bitter rivals on Twitter. Today, they tour Belgrade together on the water and take photos for the official Instagram account of the President of Serbia, bragging about the "never better" relations between the two countries.

When they say "relationships", it is clear that they mean economic relations - the latest research by the Faktor plus agency from 2018 showed that two-thirds of Serbs have a negative attitude towards Albanians, as well as two-thirds of Albanians towards Serbs. Six years later, there is almost no progress.

Although the two nations have not yet found a common language, Vučić and Rama do not have that problem. The key to the rapprochement of the two politicians is the "Open Balkans" initiative on the free flow of people, goods, capital and services, which was launched in November 2019 by Vučić, Rama and the then Prime Minister of North Macedonia, Zoran Zaev.

Thus, the trade exchange between Albania and Serbia began to grow. In 2023, it was worth 311,4 million euros and was 23,2 million euros or eight percent more than the year before, according to the announcement of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce.

"Open Balkans" is not the only link between Vucic and Rama. Over the years, the two politicians have faced accusations of autocratic tendencies. In Serbia, Vučić's party has been in power for 12 years and from year to year it is continuously collapsing democratic institutions in the country. In Albania, Rama has been prime minister for 11 years, and is hoping for a fourth consecutive term next year. Meanwhile, the state fails - or does not try - to solve the problem of organized crime, corruption and weak institutions, and a former member of Rama's government tells the German "Spiegel" that "there is no public procurement that does not end up in his wider circle". Modus Operandi well known to Rama's friend from Serbia.

Both Vučić and Rama are the leaders of countries that are officially candidates for admission to the European Union. Unofficially, bringing these two countries closer to Europe seems like an unfeasible endeavor at the moment.

photo: fonet / instagram of the president of Serbia

BEST FRIEND - VIKTOR ORBAN

However, there are also countries that are already in the European Union, but it seems that they are moving away from it. First on the list is Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. In 14 years in power, the leader of the Fidesz party managed to declare "anti-liberal democracy", build a wall on the border with Serbia, take control of the press, make corruption systemic and, in addition, in his speeches, he regularly pokes his finger in the eye of the European Union and ridicules it. "European values".

It is quite understandable that a politician with such a vivid biography becomes Vučić's best friend. In May, the president of Serbia, in a guest appearance on TV Prva, said that he values ​​his friendship with Orbán so much that he will immortalize him with monuments in honor of the Hungarian prime minister "when he is no more."

There is every chance that Orban could retaliate against Vučić in the same way. The benefit from this friendship is mutual - Vučić gained a "protector" within the European Union through Orban, and the Hungarian Prime Minister and people close to him in return receive lucrative jobs within Serbia. The BIRN organization revealed five years ago that since 2016, a group of Hungarian, Serbian and Slovenian companies in the public procurement process received contracts worth more than 25 million euros for public lighting renovation works in several cities in Serbia where the Serbian Progressive Party is in power. party.

TENDERS FOR BROTHER-IN-LAW

At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the same companies received several new contracts with a total value of around 22 million euros, announced the Public Procurement Portal. In Užice and Valjevo, the holder of this work is PLC Internergo. The contract of this and two other companies will be executed for 15 years and is worth around 8,1 million euros in Užice, or 9,8 million euros in Valjevo.

They also have subcontractors in the business, and one of them is the company ESCO Elios, connected to the Hungarian company Elios. This company opened its subsidiary in Serbia in 2014, just a few months after Vučić, then prime minister, and Orban held the first joint session of governments. At the time of arrival in Serbia, the company was managed by Orban's son-in-law Istvan Tiborc and his friend Balint Erdei. Tiborc left the company a few months later due to an investigation by the European Anti-Corruption Office. Erdei left Elios in 2016, only to be bought out a few months later by his other company, Redwood Holding.

Apart from direct economic benefits, Orbán uses his relationship with Vucic to expand Hungarian influence beyond the borders of his country. The Union of Vojvodina Hungarians has been a loyal coalition partner of the Serbian Progressive Party for years. Since coming to power, Orban's government has launched several economic programs in Vojvodina, but also in the central part of Serbia in cooperation with SVM - that is, through the "Prosperitati" foundation, which is run by that party.

The Hungarian capital is also connected with the football club TSC from Bačka Topola, which in the past few years has achieved remarkable results in the football Super League of Serbia. By the way, it is known in Hungary that Orbán's favorite hobby is investing in football and football clubs. Since Vučić has also been caught up in the "football fever" in recent years, and is building stadiums all over Serbia and pompously announcing the National Stadium in Surčin, the two friends found another topic to talk about.

HOW FRIENDSHIPS ARE MAINTAINED

Common interests are really important for maintaining friendships. Politicians from this text share several of them. For example, one of the moments of their gathering is the way of government, the so-called "spin dictatorship", which is discussed in the book Spin dictators, write Daniel Treisman and Sergey Guriev.

Spin dictators stay in power using softer methods compared to those characteristic of old dictatorships - apparent democracy, covert censorship, neutralizing the opposition... They are populists and regularly check the level of support among the people through public opinion polls. They harass independent media, but they don't ban them. Vučić and Orban and Rama can also fit into these frameworks, while the government of Vučić's recent guest and loyal friend Erdogan - especially since 2016 - is much harsher and tends towards a "dictatorship of fear".

Just as a bundle of rods is stronger than a single rod, so too are spin dictators stronger when paired together. The Serbian people like to say that "like rejoices with like". This is true, especially if you are the leader of the so-called "countries in transition" and you are trying to balance between covert authoritarianism and facade democratic conditions required by Western partners to pour huge amounts of money into your country. It is much easier when in the turbulent world of foreign policy you find like-minded people who understand that pockets can be filled without jeopardizing the levers of power.

Mutual agreements

Vučić is not the only one who enters into various types of cooperation with Hungary, Albania and Turkey. The leaders of these countries help each other and cultivate mutually good relations.

While Erdogan and Vucic met in Belgrade, Edi Rama was Viktor Orban's guest in Budapest. During that visit, Albania and Hungary signed two cooperation agreements: in the field of agriculture and in the field of public administration. In addition, the leaders of the two countries expressed their readiness for further deepening of cooperation and Hungarian investments in Tirana.

Both Erdogan and Orban have found a common language. In December of last year, the Turkish president gave Orban a car during his visit to Budapest, and in return he received a horse from the Hungarian prime minister.

One less factory

Although Erdogan boasts of the number of Turkish investors, one less Turkish factory has been operating in Serbia since last year. "Kayra textile" from Mali Zvornik stopped working a year ago and moved to Belgrade, emptying the plant in the west of Serbia overnight. In January, when the whole story reached the media, the company said that work was only "temporarily suspended" and would resume in April. However, that did not happen. Almost a year after the factory shut down, dozens of workers have still not been paid. During the visit of the President of Serbia to Mali Zvornik in August, one of the former workers of the factory turned to him for help due to unpaid wages. As a potential solution, Vučić mentioned the possibility of the state paying back wages to workers as "social aid or support" - even though the debts of a private investor are involved. According to him, the state would subsequently collect those debts from the investor.