Serbia and Hungary signed an agreement on defense cooperation. Previously, Croatia, Albania and Kosovo signed Declarations on military cooperation. Both sides talk about provocation
A document has been signed that operationalizes and specifies the agreement on strategic cooperation between Serbia and Hungary in the field of defense, which was reached in 2023, President Aleksandar Vučić said after the signing. Deutsche Welle (DW).
He pointed out that the key element of those relations is military cooperation, which is reflected in the realization of bilateral and multinational exercises, military-military and military-technical cooperation in the areas of procurement of weapons systems and means.
The President of Serbia believes that this is a step closer to a military alliance between the two countries, but that the Hungarian side, as well as the Hungarian and Serbian parliaments, are also asking about it.
NATO is probably also wondering about it, because Hungary is a member of it.
Answer to Croatia, Albania and Kosovo
The agreement, therefore, is not some great novelty, but it comes after the declaration on military cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, which was assessed as provocative in Belgrade. The signing of the document with Hungary is therefore seen as Belgrade's response to that initiative, which can also be seen as a continuation of Vučić's competition with Croatia.
The practical value of that agreement is not too significant for the well-being of the citizens of Serbia, or their security, and, as the director of the Institute for European Affairs, Naim Leo Beshiri, points out for DW, "when you analyze all the strategic agreements signed by Serbia, it only has such agreements with Burkina Faso."
"That agreement is focused exclusively on economic gains for companies that are close to the two authoritarian leaders Viktor Orban and Aleksandar Vučić. So this agreement can have that PR effect, as a kind of counterweight to the agreement that Croatia had, but fundamentally it has no great significance," says Beširi.
Consolidation of authoritarian friendship
The signing of the military agreement with Hungary is some kind of response to the tripartite agreement between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, Aleksandar Popov, director of the Center for Regionalism, told DW. At the same time, he reminds of the initiatives coming from Montenegro.
"We see that Milan Knežević, the leader of the Democratic People's Party, is asking for Montenegro to sign a military-technical agreement with Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. An additional motive for that agreement is to strengthen even more the authoritarian friendship of the two leaders, Orban and Vučić, and the alliance with Hungary, which is certainly one of the main representatives of Serbia in the European Union. What is worrying here is that, instead of diplomatic initiatives, we have weapons rattling in the region," Popov believes.
Harsh rhetoric costs nothing
The dangers of a new arms race in the region certainly exist, says Naim Leo Beshiri. Because, as he says, "you can always count on the nationalist forces to move forward and tighten the rhetoric."
"The only thing that consoles me is that no one in the region, including Serbia, has the money for such a thing. But, that will not prevent populists in Serbia, Croatia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, from beating themselves up in the nationalist chest. It still seems to me that no one in the region wants to go to war anymore, so I doubt that the purchase of any weapon can lead to someone using it," Beshiri told DW.
Far from a military alliance
Popov assesses that it is certainly irresponsible to make such agreements in the region, especially if you bear in mind that they are signed between countries that are members of NATO and those that are not.
"Hungary, for example, has its obligations within NATO, but at the same time it is a country that opposes the decisions made within the EU in Brussels. This shows that a general confusion that reigns in global relations is being used. For Vučić, it is an opportunity to amortize what is happening to him in the country, and in this sense, the opportunity is now being used for some general realignment, which is uncertain how it will end," says Popov.
Naim Leo Beshiri points out that "all those agreements cannot have the full force of a military alliance, because in that case there would have to be some sanctions, and what happens if someone is attacked, and you cannot do something like that if you are a member of NATO. This is more about some kind of cooperation in the exchange of information, education, the possibility of various trainings, exercises, and the like."
Unnecessary psychosis
If we talk about the impact of such military agreements on regional stability, Beshiri says that it "primarily depends on the behavior of the region's politicians."
"How much intolerance will be felt depends on their rhetoric, and my only hope is that no one in the region has the material or human resources for anything more than incendiary rhetoric," our interlocutor believes.
The director of the Center for Regionalism, Aleksandar Popov, assesses that "signing such agreements causes a completely unnecessary psychosis. Otherwise, we have too much incendiary material in these areas, primarily in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in Kosovo, and a lot of internal instability in the countries of the region, and this only adds fuel to the fire," Popov concluded for DW.
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