Photo: Tingshu Wang, Pool Photo via APSome future government will not be completely powerless, but it will have an account for "steel friendship" whose amount is hidden by the National Bank.
International treaties do not cease to be valid when the government changes. For decades, the citizens of Serbia will return loans to China for projects that were awarded to Chinese companies
Aleksandar Vučić visited at the end of May China ninth time since he has held the highest state positions. Meeting with the President of China Xi Jinping called the "crown of his career", and in addition to the awards he received, the president and ministers returned to Serbia with a double-digit number of signed documents on cooperation between the two countries.
They are signed. Memorandum, protocols, agreements and programs from a wide variety of fields - from education, media and technological development to the action plan on cooperation within the "Belt and Road" initiative from 2026 to 2028.
However, the question is what will the "steely friendship" between Vučić and Xi leave for the new government. Could a future government end some of the agreements it finds harmful? And will the citizens of Serbia continue to pay for the political and economic decisions of Aleksandar Vučić?
Contracts are not signed by the regime, but by the state
International agreements are not concluded by the "regime" but by the Republic of Serbia, and the change of the president, government or parliamentary majority does not in itself cancel the state's obligations towards the international partner.
However, this does not mean that every agreement is eternal. The Vienna Convention from 1969 contains explicit provisions that allow the state to challenge the validity of the contract if consent to that contract was obtained by fraud or corruption of its representative, but for such a thing concrete evidence is needed and political evaluations that a certain deal was bad or non-transparent are not enough.
Photo: Tanjug/ Dimitrije GollSerbia's exports to China amounted to 1,06 billion, while imports from China reached approximately 3,26 billion dollars.
Also, not all documents signed during different state visits are equally important. Igor Novaković from the Center for International and Security Affairs told the BBC in Serbian that the documents were signed in Beijing mostly lower-level agreements that open the possibility for future cooperation and represent a kind of "testing the ground".
China is not only a trading partner
Serbia is currently repaying more than ten loans to China. According to the data of the Public Debt Administration, which was transmitted by "Radio Free Europe" at the beginning of 2026, the debt to the Chinese state Export-Import Bank amounted to about 2,8 billion euros, which is approximately 11 percent of Serbia's foreign debt. And that's not the whole picture of Serbia's indebtedness, because the National Bank of Serbia refused to provide "Radio Free Europe" with Serbia's total debt to Chinese banks and the state of China with the explanation that it was confidential data.
As "Radar" wrote at the end of 2025, the current government entrusted Chinese companies with jobs worth more than 12 billion euros in 13 years, and only three big Chinese players - CCCC, CRIC and CRBC - are engaged in projects worth more than ten billion euros.
Photo: Tanjug/ Jadranka IlićSerbia is currently repaying more than ten loans to China.
That's why not every project of Chinese companies can be called an investment, because in many cases it's not about investing Chinese capital in Serbia at all, but about state jobs that the citizens of Serbia will pay off for decades.
Agreement on free trade between Serbia and China
However, Chinese companies in Serbia are not only contractors of major infrastructure works. Company Zidjin became the owner of RTB Bor, HBIS took over Smederevo Steelworks, Linglong opened a tire factory in Zrenjanin.
The free trade agreement between Serbia and China entered into force in July 2024 and covers more than 20.000 products and foresees a gradual reduction or abolition of tariffs.
As Blic wrote, in the first six months of 2025, the foreign trade exchange between Serbia and China amounted to 4,33 billion dollars. Serbia's exports to China amounted to 1,06 billion, while imports from China reached approximately 3,26 billion dollars.
The relationship is therefore quite uneven.
What Serbia exports is also important. Among the leading products are copper ores, concentrates and cathodes from refined copper, and a significant part of exports to China comes precisely from companies that are already in Chinese ownership.
According to the data published by "Radar", only two companies owned by Ziđin exported goods worth 1,9 billion euros from Serbia in 2023, and a year later the export increased to 2,8 billion.
Therefore, China is not only a market for products from Serbia, but it is also the owner and producer and exporter and creditor and contractor.
Photo: Tanjug/ Dimitrije GollAleksandar Vučić and Xi Jinping
European money, unlike Chinese money, is looking for reforms
While the government is "steeling friendship" with China, Serbia could be left without more than one and a half billion euros from the European Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. The money is temporarily held in the accounts EU until Serbia fulfills the recommendations Venice Commission which refer to Mrdić's laws.
Minister of Finance Sinish Mali he tried to downplay the importance of those funds, stating that the state did not even count on that money.
At the beginning of May, he stated in the show "Hit Tweet" on Pink TV: "We have already withdrawn two tranches, somewhere around seventy-eighty million euros. Otherwise, it is about loans - one billion and one hundred and fifty million, plus or minus are loans, the rest are grants. So, it has a neutral effect on our budget in that regard, nor, to be honest, I count on it in the budget. If it happens, it happens."
What is left for Serbia after Vučić
When everything is added up, after the regime of Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia is left with not only Chinese debts, but also a whole model of cooperation that was built for years without any control.
In this model, Chinese banks lend to projects, Chinese companies get jobs, the state assumes obligations that will be paid back for decades, and part of the benefits end up with domestic subcontractors.
Some future government will not be completely powerless, but it will have an account for "steel friendship" whose amount is hidden by the National Bank.
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