RIA Novosti: Direct connection between Vučić's resignation and his conversation with Putin

Between decisions Aleksandar Vučić to resign as president of Serbia and his telephone conversation with the Russian president Vladimir Putin, conducted the day before, there is a direct connection, assesses the Russian agency RIA Novosti.

Author Dmitry Bavirin states that the entire operation would have been brought to the brink of failure if Vucic had not managed to get support. Kremlin, with the assessment that the price of possible failure could be high - the Serbian state itself, reports Beta.

Bavirin interprets Vučić's move as leaving office with the intention of remaining a key figure in the political system. According to his opinion, the plan is for Vučić to be elected as prime minister after the presidency, which would keep his decisive influence regardless of the title of the office he holds.

The author states that it is crucial for Vučić's political future that Serbian Progressive Party win the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 25. If this does not happen, Bavirin estimates, Vučić would lose political control over the system he led for years.

RIA Novosti assesses that this is the first parliamentary campaign in Serbia after many years, the outcome of which is not obvious in advance. Although Vučić and his party, according to the agency, have better chances and a higher rating, the author recalls that during this and the previous year it seemed several times that his political era was coming to an end and that the "vertical" of the government in Serbia was seriously shaken.

As a politician, Srdanović is not Vučić's competitor

As the biggest rival of the SNS in the elections, Bavirin cites the Student List, led by medical professor Ilija Srdanović. However, according to his assessment, Srdanović as a politician is not a competitor to Vučić in terms of political format.

Bavirin recalls Vučić's longevity on the political scene and his ability to survive political changes and defeats. He states that a quarter of a century ago there were plans for him to end up in The Hague together with Slobodan Milosevic, but that Vučić, despite losing the war at that time, outlasted numerous political opponents. The author describes his endurance and ability to simultaneously maintain relations with different power centers as a political talent, and his reference to Winston Churchill and Xi Jinping in his resignation speech is even interpreted as an expression of a kind of admiration, not just a criticism of his policies.

According to RIA Novosti, Vučić's policy suits part of Serbian society because he tries to avoid conflict with various international power centers. Bavirin describes Serbia as a poor country that is emotionally close to Russia, while at the same time it is politically and economically oriented towards Europe. In such a position, the author assesses, the goal is that Serbia does not come into conflict with Moscow, Brussels, or Washington because of Kosovo, nor with Beijing because of Chinese investments.

That is why Bavirin assesses that Vučić's main opponent is not a politician of a similar format, nor European integration, for which he states that there is an interest in them among a smaller and smaller part of society, but fatigue from his long-term rule.

In the text, the dissatisfaction of the citizens of Serbia with Vučić is compared to the internal criticism to which former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was once exposed. Bavirin reminds that Orbán, despite describing him as a people's tribune with popular politics and multiple electoral victories, ultimately lost the elections.

The election outcome can be uncertain

The author therefore concludes that the election outcome in Serbia can be uncertain. He cites the price of gas as one of the most important factors, judging that market prices would be unsustainable for the citizens of Serbia.

The fact that Serbia's contract with Russia on the supply of gas at preferential prices expired on September 30 gives special importance to this. Bavirin estimates that Vučić's long-term political career could have ended in a month if Putin refused to extend the contract. In that case, the rise in gas prices would not only represent an economic blow to Serbia, but, according to his interpretation, would show that Vučić is no longer capable of maintaining partnership relations with Moscow.

RIA Novosti assesses in the text that Brussels does not openly support either Vučić or the students. According to the author, the ultimate goal of the West in the Balkans since 2014 remains the isolation of the region from Russian influence and its full inclusion in NATO. Bavirin states that the Serbs are not ready for such a policy, but that the Europeans will prepare them for it, while Vučić is consciously seen as an obstacle.

In such circumstances, the text states, Russia's decision to extend preferential gas prices to Serbia becomes simpler, especially bearing in mind that due to sanctions there are quantities of gas for which there is currently insufficient demand.

The author states that it would be much more difficult for Russia to support Serbia if, as he writes, "Serbian 'Maidan' was suffocating in Russophobia", if the relations between Moscow and the European Union were normal and functional, or if supporting one side in the elections would automatically mean confrontation with the other side in the event of its victory.

However, Bavirin emphasizes that, according to his interpretation, Russia did not support Vučić in Serbia, but rather Serbia and Serbs. In doing so, he points to Serbia's dependence on Russian gas and assesses that citizens will not consider such support a bribe, even if they do not support the government.

At the same time, the author leaves open the possibility that dissatisfaction with Vučić is greater than the optimists estimate. The text concludes with a warning that, if the situation develops in that direction, it could subsequently be said that those who wanted to hit Vučić actually hit Serbia.

Real journalism costs money, and we will not be bought by tycoons and corporations. Support us with a one-time or monthly donation. The time for it is now!