The majority of Serbian citizens are still not in favor of membership European Union (EU), the survey "Citizens' Attitudes on Foreign Policy" conducted by the Lidington Research organization showed, so in the referendum on membership in Of Serbia in the EU, 52 percent of citizens definitely or probably voted against. At the same time, 39 percent would vote for Serbia's entry into the EU.
Support for Serbia's entry into the EU is somewhat higher among national minorities, in Belgrade, Vojvodina and among the highly educated.
Compared to earlier surveys by some other organizations and institutions, the decline in support for Serbia's entry into the EU is clearly visible.
Thus, in August 2021, the Ministry of European Integration announced that in a referendum, 57 percent of Serbian citizens would vote for EU membership, and that 30 percent would be against it.
In the same month of the same year, a survey by the Center for Social Dialogue and Regional Initiatives was published, which showed that the result of the referendum would be 53 percent to 47 percent in favor of supporters of Serbia's EU membership.
In December 2020, a survey by the Advisory Group of the Balkans in Europe was published, in which, when asked whether they were in favor of EU membership or not, even 64 percent of citizens answered that they were in favor of Serbia in the EU.
Disagreement with EU policy towards Russia
One of the authors of the latest research, Dimitrije Milić from Lidington Research, comments on why there was a drop in trust in the EU for "Vreme".
"If we exclude the smaller number of those who are unsure, it is definitely that the Eurosceptics have a slight majority. There are several reasons, and one of them, which has existed since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, is that there is disagreement with the EU's policy towards Russia, and that among those citizens who are sympathetic to that country," Milić told "Vreme".
He adds that the reasons for mistrust in the EU are "the always topical issue of Kosovo and the negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, which are not the most popular topics in society."
He also states that the third, so far unrecorded factor, is that some citizens who voted for opposition pro-European parties in the previous elections have lost enthusiasm for Serbia's accession to the EU.
Reporting by Tonino Pizzula and Marta Kos
Milić assumes that the reasons for the emergence of this factor are the student protest and the EU's ambivalent attitude regarding the situation in Serbia.
"I assume that part of the opposition-oriented citizens who voted for pro-European parties in the previous elections are disappointed because of the entire complicated situation and the attitude of the EU towards the protests and the authorities, and probably also part of the voters of the ruling party are not satisfied with the attitude of the EU towards the situation in Serbia," says Milić.
It also indicates that the reports of Tonino Pizzula and Marta Kos were negatively interpreted in the pro-government media, which also influenced the decline in support for the European Union among the voters of the ruling party.
"The European Union positioned itself in such a way that it did not satisfy either the opposition or the voters of the ruling parties, and because of this there was a drop in support for European integration," says Milić.
He adds that the results of the research were greatly influenced by how the electorate of the ruling party reacts to the messages sent by the government, "which vary, so any change in that, the largest percentage of the electorate in general, and at the national level brings changes in support for Serbia's membership in the EU".
Attitude towards NATO
When it comes to Serbia's membership in NATO, research has shown that 81 percent of citizens are against it, but Milić notes that before the start of the war in Ukraine, the percentage of citizens who were in favor of Serbia's membership in that alliance was in the single digits.
"When the war in Ukraine started, those single-digit numbers, when it comes to ULSAK in NATO, became lower double-digits. Then a part of pro-European citizens who were for the EU, but not necessarily for NATO, started to support Serbia's entry into NATO. Now that percentage is 14 percent and has fallen slightly compared to the time when the war in Ukraine started, probably because of Donald Trump's critical messages directed at NATO," explains Milić.
Vučić's voters trust Trump, but not the USA
The respondents also stated that the arrival of Donald Trump as the head of the USA will affect the improvement of relations with Serbia, but that he as a leader does not have the capacity to bring about a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
"Many more citizens of Serbia believe that Trump will bring an improvement in the relations between Serbia and the USA, than that he will affect the end of the war in Ukraine. People who voted for the ruling party in the previous elections believe that Trump will bring an improvement in the relations between Serbia and the USA, while the voters of the opposition parties are very skeptical about it. It is interesting that, when you ask citizens about the responsibility for the uncertain fate of the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), the voters of the ruling party predominantly consider the USA responsible, although they now believe in Trump, while the people who believe voted for the opposition parties, they believe that Serbia is the most responsible for the situation regarding the NIS," says Milić.
Just let it be against the West.
Speaking about the result of the research that says that 59 percent of the respondents are in favor of Serbia's membership in the BRICS association (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milić reminds that BRICS dominated the Serbian media space in 2023 and 2024.
"At that time, the tabloids and two Russian media present in Serbia strongly promoted BRICS and emphasized that Serbia should become part of that community, even though the level of the member states is not high, and apart from the annual meetings, there are no significant activities. Nevertheless, it is obvious that a significant part of citizens find it tempting for Serbia to be in an organization in which Russia, or in any organization that is a counterweight to the West. Part of the people who have a negative attitude towards the EU, NATO and the USA find support in BRICS, even though BRICS realistically, it could not be, because it is a very flexible and unstructured organization," concludes Milić.
