Assembly Republika Srpska decides on the referendum after the revocation of the mandate Milorad Dodik. Given that the mandate of the members of the Republican Election Commission has expired, today (August 22) the deputies will first discuss the amendments to the law on the referendum, which would enable the formation of an ad hoc commission for its implementation.
A similar thing was done in 2016, when a referendum on Republika Srpska Day was held, which was carried out by an ad hoc commission headed by the then General Secretary Milorad Dodik, Sinisa Karan, the current Minister of the Interior, writes Deutsche Welle.
The key in the referendum question
The referendum on the decisions of the High Representative Christian Schmidt, as well as the decision to revoke the mandate, should be held on October 18 or 25.
"Does the people accept that Christian Schmidt is destroying the constitutional order of the Republika Srpska and that an unconstitutional court is destroying the Constitution and replacing the officials elected by the people" - this is the referendum question that will be decided by the citizens at the end of October.
"The final wording will be clear, but that is the essence. We expect the people to say a big 'no', to reject those stories, and that's why we invite people to vote," says Dodik.
By not stepping down from the post of president after the revocation of his mandate, Dodik risks new criminal acts and dragging the RS into the abyss of isolation, this is the opinion of the majority of the professional public, as well as the opposition. If the referendum is held, it will not have any legal force, not even an advisory one, because only the entity cannot express itself on issues that concern the entire country.
"If the referendum question refers to the finality of the judgment against Dodik, then it will be unconstitutional," says Milan Blagojević, a legal expert from Banja Luka.
After me the flood
The opposition in Republika Srpska still does not have a unified position on whether it should have a common candidate and whether it should participate in the early elections at all, after the CEC stripped Dodik of his mandate. On the other hand, regarding the referendum, they are united. They say it's about adventurism and a crazy move.
"We will not follow that insane policy that is causing enormous damage to the RS, and which now remains without a government and without a president," says Nebojša Vukanović, from the List for Justice and Order, warning that Dodik wants to stay in power by force.
"Under the slogan, after me, the flood. They are dragging all their associates into the abyss because they cannot bear that one of them has authority and power," says Vukanović.
The referendum has no legal force, but its constant mention and withdrawal over the last 20 years - without any concrete results - created the illusion that the one on secession could really be held and that its results could be implemented.
Draško Stanivuković, the leader of the opposition Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), warns against this, and believes that now is not the time for such an adventure. Announcing a resolution or declaration on self-determination, he says, could lead to escalation.
This week's mandate
"What the leadership of the RS is doing in the last few days can only cause the continuation of sanctions and isolation, which the Republika Srpska cannot withstand. We cannot be an isolated island and therefore there is no need for such a single resolution," said Stanivuković, who will attend a special session of the National Assembly.
Political analyst Tanja Topić does not expect anything until the referendum, which can only be of an advisory nature, without a binding character. However, that character can be mobilizing, Topić believes.
"We are already hearing that the SNSD will also have its own candidate in the early elections so that others would not 'lay a coward's egg' on him. Therefore, through the referendum saga, a halo will be created around the former president as a victim of the actions of 'colonial powers' so that the election can be profited from that spin", Topić believes, stressing that the change of government and the election of a new one can be read as "revenge of bad students".
However, SDA deputy in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska Ramiz Salkić says that it is unconstitutional for the entity parliament to consider and take any position on the decision of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to Salkić, the assembly should consider who will take over the office of president.
"Milorad Dodik is ready to do anything for the realization of separatist goals. These actions and the situation we are in should be taken extremely seriously," Salkić believes.
Procrastination until the 2026 elections.
As for the new government, the mandate should be known in the next day or two. The names are still being bid on, from Igor, Milorad Dodik's son, to party "champions".
According to the Constitution of the RS, only the president appoints a mandate holder, and given that Dodik is no longer the "force of the verdict", after the election of the new government, an appeal is expected to the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which could overturn the government, most experts agree.
Also, one of the theories that are emerging these days is that Dodik is consciously going to the election of the mandate under such conditions, so that the Constitutional Court would overthrow the government, which would create a political blockade that would "drag" until the regular elections in October next year.
In addition to the referendum and the resignation of the Prime Minister, the session will also include "Information on the verdict of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina pronounced on the President of the Republic of Srpska and the decision of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the termination of the mandate of the President of the Republic Milorad Dodik and taking the position of the National Assembly on the future activities of the institutions of the Republic of Srpska". Conclusions are also expected on this point, which will be known during the session.
