Major global stock market forecaster Polymarket currently calculates that there is a 67 percent chance of the date extraordinary parliamentary elections u Serbia find out by the end of the year.
While that percentage often fluctuates, currently the forecast that an election will be called by the end of the year can be "bought" for 80 cents to get one dollar. That small gain means that people generally bet on that option and consider it almost certain.
However, even those who buy the "no" option have to pay 54 cents to get a dollar, which means that the cream that Polymarket skims off is quite high.
When must the elections be held?
The next regular elections in Serbia should be presidential, in the spring of 2027, after the president Aleksandar Vučić second term expires.
Regular parliamentary elections would have to be held only by the end of 2027, but Vučić has repeatedly said that they will be held earlier, perhaps by Vidovdan this year. Analysts speculate that the most profitable for the SNS could be to merge the elections, where Vučić would again run as a candidate for prime minister.
"The earliest formally-legal parliamentary elections could be called at the end of May, on May 31, and at the latest in March next year. If they were called for March next year, then they would not be extraordinary, but regular. And I promised the people that I would call them earlier, and I would see to it that they take place before the end of the year," said Vučić these days, when he launched consultations with political parties that the majority of the opposition is boycotting.
Not such a crazy bet.
On Polymarket, as far as Serbia is concerned, you can still bet that Vučić will leave the post of president by the end of June this year, but only 17 percent of the chances are given to that, although the prospects may not be entirely bad. Especially if Vučić "shortens" the mandate of the president in order to run the parliamentary race from the top of the list as soon as possible.
Those who bet on it can win a dollar on the invested 19 cents. (If you got inspired here and get it, feel free then donate something to Vreme and independent journalism. If you miss, it's your own fault for listening.)
Polymarket, the global forecast market, normally deals with various political, social and cultural events. There is currently popular speculation as to when US President Donald Trump will announce the end of all operations against Iran.
