When will Vučić call the elections: "Only when he can steal them or if the elections stop the protests"

The only condition is that the president of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić calls for elections, it is obvious that public opinion polls show that he has a chance to steal those elections, director of the Institute for European Affairs Naim Leo Beshiri tells "Vreme". On the other hand, Darko Obradović from the Center for Strategic Analysis believes that elections will be called only when there is an assessment that this act will put an end to protests.

"Little people are making a strategy for Vučić to steal the elections"

Beshiri adds that Vučić expects and is working on the fact that the focus groups in research will tell him which approach to change in order to win the elections or to buy as much time as possible for "the little people who work for him to make a strategy to steal the elections".

"Every time we think it's over, Vučić remembers something that none of us thought could happen. Thus, before the last local elections, a large number of mayors and presidents of municipalities resigned so that the government could make a migration of people and gain enough by manipulating the electoral system that they could steal the elections a little," recalls Beširi.

Show the numerical decline of protests

He emphasizes that one should not be fooled, because Vučić and his party still have enormous support among citizens who are somehow dependent on the state budget.

"Vučić understands the situation in Serbia very well, and this can be seen from the campaigns for the local elections in Zaječar and Kosjerić. He is aware that he will lose convincingly in the cities and in the central municipalities, but he also knows that half of the electorate is in the villages. Then, depending on which village he goes to, he illegally allocates aid in goods and white goods. Everyone who lives in Zaječar knows this, we all know it, but it has been tolerated for years," says Beširi.

As a strategy by which Vučić wants to create the conditions for winning the elections, Beširi cites the government's idea to show that the number of protests in Belgrade and other cities has decreased.

"It's just a story for his electorate. In essence, the protests have become decentralized to such an extent that it is the biggest danger for Vučić, because there is no municipality, town or village in which at least one protest has not been held in the past seven months, even where there have never been any protests. This decentralization is seriously shaking Vučić, because it is the first time that people who want change are going to the most remote parts of the country. However, due to the large resources that he can abuse, Vučić is still at a slight advantage compared to students and the opposition," Beshiri points out.

Possible calculation by election date

He also adds that Vučić could calculate the date of the election, as he did in several previous election cycles, so that the choice of the date for the election harms the opposition the most.

"That's how Vučić can call elections during the summer holidays, in mid-July, when a large part of citizens who want change are planning vacations, and his electorate, which is mostly poor, acts on command: 'if the president says there is no vacation, you don't have a vacation'. Nevertheless, even such organized elections can be dangerous for Vučić because in hot weather, older people will not want to go to the polls," says Beširi.

The Expo must not fail.

He emphasizes that in any scenario, Vučić will in no way endanger Expo 2027, "because it is the crown of his corruption and the serious enrichment of people around him, who have allowed him to stay in power all these years."

"Vučić must appease those people, or they will replace him, not the opposition," concludes Beširi.

At this moment, Vučić is demonstrating that he is in charge

On the other hand, Darko Obradović believes that the issue of calling elections at this moment "is not a matter of tactics, but the calling can be thought of as a form of concession by one of the parties".

"This means that the very act of calling an election is a trump card in the hands of whose perception in the public needs to be fought for. When Boris Tadić 'shortened' his mandate, the progressives presented it as a resignation that they forced him to do. Let's remember that Miloš Vučević resigned and that did not lead to a significant change in the protests. One side is trying to present the calling of the election as a victory for its pressure and use of the potential it believes it possesses, while on the other hand, President Vučić is currently demonstrating that authority and that he is wondering when he will call the elections, convinced that those who are looking for them do not have the strength to force him", says Obradović for "Vreme".

According to him, the announcement of elections will follow "only when there is an assessment that this act will put an end to the seven-month protests".

"Until such a belief matures, the elections are a resource around which everyone builds propaganda messages. We are attending a 'long game' in which the actors are faced with serious considerations as to whether the time works for them. From the point of view of President Vučić's strategy, he can wait for one of the major economic or infrastructure victories, perhaps even an international result, with which he will go to the elections," says Obradović.

"Lithium Mine Misinformation"

He emphasizes that guarantees that the election results will stop the protests are unlikely.

"Certainly a third of the government's voters do not represent a hard nationalist core, but pro-Western citizen-oriented moderates who need to be won over on the front that 'attacks' part of the students and the opposition. This category of voters is the one that brings and takes away from power in Serbia. On the one hand, the economic situation does not affect this group of people, but that is why they are susceptible to forming opinions based on misinformation about the lithium mine, accusations against Expo 2027, the slowing down of EU integration or Chinese "Unfavorable loans. The determination of that group of people is what has led the government to enter the cycles of extraordinary elections. That group does not go to public events, but goes to the elections," says Obradović.

European Union requirements

As another factor that could help with the forecast of potential elections, Obradović mentions the reforms required by the European Union.

"It is not realistic to call elections if the basic prerequisites in critical sectors are not met, such as the media and voter lists in which the EU is strongly interested. Finally, we see that the Russian Federation is also analyzing the possibility of early elections and has taken active measures on its part to weaken the position of the SNS, by no less than the Russian foreign intelligence service accusing Serbian companies of participating in the killing of Russians. I don't think that early elections will happen in the near future," concludes Obradović.