"By the end of the year it will be elections, maybe they will be until Vidovdan, we will see when they will be," he said Vucic at the end of May and added that "there is no great philosophy".
However, the very next week, he started confusing things: "If we see a big crisis going on, there will certainly be nothing from summer elections, but if we see peace being made, maybe there will be summer elections."
A week later, another calculation followed.
"They can be until July 10, then they certainly won't be in the second half of July and August, and then they can be from September until the end of the year," Vučić told RTS on Monday (April 13).
Zoran Stojiljković, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, sees all these terms and term changes as Vučić's strategy to preempt the opposition and rebellious students, as well as to mislead the people.
"Vučić is playing with the pre-summer and post-summer dates because he knows that the better-off middle class likes to go to the sea then, and the poor who vote for him certainly don't go. Those who vote for him, who are rich, go in the height of the season," says Stojiljković.
Will it preempt or bore?
Before the student struggle, Vučić was always in a situation to organize elections when it was convenient for him to achieve the best possible result, and that is why they were almost always extraordinary, to ensure that the balance of power did not change in the meantime.
However, Vučić now seems permanently unprepared, so he is potentially afraid to leave the deadline for the last moment, because it is uncertain what kind of political situation he would have in the country. That certainly happened to Viktor Orbán.
"And Orban came to a situation where he became annoying to people who could no longer tolerate his tyranny, and then there is no help for you even if Russia and America are with you together," says Stojiljković. "That's why Vučić is trying to predict the best moment himself, especially if an economic recession is expected, which is never a good thing for elections."
Five deadlines
According to the law, parliamentary elections are announced by the President of Serbia, and no less than 45 nor more than 60 days can pass from the day of the announcement to the day of voting. Vucic said at the beginning of April that extraordinary parliamentary elections could be held on May 31 at the earliest. However, in order for that to happen, Vučić must, by law, announce them no later than today, Thursday, April 16.
The second deadline he mentioned is Vidovdan. This would mean that they will be announced on April 29 at the earliest, and May 14 at the latest.
The third date he said was July 10th. What Vučić missed was that this date is Friday. However, although elections in Serbia are traditionally held on Sundays, the law does not prohibit other days.
Autumn elections - a bloody summer
Vučić's last two terms are September and December, which would mean a potentially hot political summer in Serbia.
"Even with people like Vučić, i.e. authoritarian populists, the rule of political commitment applies," Stojiljković told Vreme. Because when you say something ten times, like he did now about the elections, you are still under pressure to make it happen."
However, Stojiljković says that, no matter how crazy these deadlines sound, Vučić should not be underestimated.
"He often knows very clearly why he declares certain things. The question arises whether Vučić will go for the strategy of a quick campaign and unprepared resistance or for another bloody summer, in which he will suppress rebellions of anyone who raises his head," he adds. "That's why the main item is to wake up people who are only loud in the pub."
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