Wherever he is asked, and sometimes even when he is not asked, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić says that there is nothing to do with the enlargement of the European Union.
"I don't think that the EU will be able to make decisions about enlargement in the next few years," he said at the beginning of July when the presidents of the parliaments of the EU candidate countries gathered in Belgrade.
He continued in his usual tone that "this does not mean that we should not continue apace on our European path and implement reforms".
Vučić expressed similar theses fatherly before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, all while respecting the guest's optimism that membership in the EU can be achieved quickly.
On the other hand, Vučićević's critics say that he and his government are not interested in joining the EU anyway, that they are destroying democracy and the separation of powers, and that they have no right to talk about the alleged unwillingness of Brussels to accept new members.
This way and that by Marta Kos
European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, who canceled her visit to Belgrade due to the official glorification of Ratko Mladić, tries to spread optimism.
"This autumn will be an autumn of enlargement in two directions. One is the preparation of candidates for membership, and the other is what we are doing inside the European Union to prepare for it," Kos said in a video posted on the X network.
But she again spoke about the "mechanisms" that should force the new members to adhere to the rule of law. It is a kind of intermediate step or installment membership.
Earlier, Kos mentioned that the new members could be under scrutiny for the entire "five, ten, fifteen years" - during which EU membership can be revoked.
That must sound painful, especially in Podgorica, where they hoped to bring all the steps to an end during the first half of 2027. But even Kos mentions "until the end of this decade" as the deadline for new EU enlargement.
Why France?
In the end, both the "pessimist" Vučić and the "optimist" Kos know that the current EU members hold the knife and the cake when it comes to enlargement. Any new entry must be confirmed in all 27 states.
"The biggest risk is France," writes Tim Juda, an expert on the Balkans, in an article for the Economist.
On the one hand, the country has a hard threshold for accepting new EU members because it requires either a referendum or a three-fifths majority in both houses of parliament.
And at the moment there is no will among the citizens or parliamentarians. According to the Eurobarometer, the French are the least in favor of accepting new members, as only 8 percent strongly favor enlargement, and 35 percent somewhat favor it. Opposite those 43 percent are 48 percent of people who reject the expansion.
Apart from France, the camp of opponents of enlargement is stronger only in Austria and the Czech Republic, while it is narrow in Germany (49 percent for, 47 percent against).
The survey was conducted at the beginning of last year, and since then the right has grown even stronger in Europe, so the numbers have hardly moved in favor of enlargement.
They are coming
As Jude writes, the parliamentary road has not been opened in France either. Outgoing President Emmanuel Macron supports enlargement in principle, but his successor could easily be right-wing Marine Le Pen.
In the French parliament, there is "simply no" majority for the admission of new members, said Jovana Marović, the former minister of European affairs in Montenegro.
"That is a very unpopular thing to say," Marović was quoted as saying in the Ekonomista article. "The atmosphere in Montenegro is almost euphoric, as if accession to the EU is a foregone conclusion."
The success of the Alternative for Germany in the provincial elections did not help the expansion either. Although this radical right-wing party acts far from the federal level of government, it often chases the entire political scene before it and forces it to change its policy.
AfD otherwise advocates "privileged partnerships", not EU enlargement. The party itself is debating whether to leave the Eurozone.
Give me what you got?
Commenting on the article by Economist Online X, German journalist Michael Martens recalled his old proposal to admit new countries only to the common market and Schengen, without full membership and voting rights in Brussels.
Martens calls it a "win-win" situation if the Balkan countries and others meet the required conditions.
In Montenegro, which is seen as a future member of the Union, such ideas are perceived as a consolation prize.
However, Vučić and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama see it differently. In February, they jointly published an author's text in Martens' Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. There they wrote that they understand the concerns of EU members regarding enlargement.
"That is why we are advocating the accelerated integration of the prepared candidate countries into the common market and the Schengen area. This would bring tangible advantages to the citizens and at the same time strengthen the EU's economic and geopolitical position, without burdening the EU's decision-making architecture or disrupting its institutional balance," wrote Vučić and Rama.
Admittedly, Brussels is not even close to establishing this kind of "semi-membership" - negotiations will still be conducted on this.
Until we see what and how, years can easily pass, which would mean that Vučić is absolutely right. That quip will still be valid: "We would like to enter the EU, and they would like to receive us."
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