Is Trump sacrificing Ukraine for congressional elections?

Agreement of the American President Donald Trump and the Russian president Vladimir Putin about the export of Russian diesel to the world market caused outrage in Ukraine. According to the American portal Axios, the agreement is interpreted in Kiev as a response to the Ukrainian leadership's refusal to stop attacks on Russian refineries.

Trump further raised tensions by saying that it was time for Ukraine to get a new leader who could make a deal. Such words reopened the discussion about the attitude of the US administration towards Volodymyr Zelensky and the future of US support to Ukraine.

Photo: AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic

The announcement of the agreement came at the exact moment when Ukrainian, American and European representatives were holding talks in Miami. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not hide his displeasure.

"I think our team is just being used as a front. It's definitely not fair," he told reporters, calling Trump's decision "a weak decision by strong partners."

Memories of the confrontation in the Oval Office

For the Ukrainian leadership, this is not the first serious conflict with the Trump administration. Already in February 2025, there was an open verbal conflict in the Oval Office, when Trump told Zelensky that he "doesn't have the cards in his hands right now."

That meeting was followed by a temporary suspension of arms deliveries and the exchange of intelligence between the two countries. According to media reports, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during the negotiations in Miami again mentioned the possibility of suspending intelligence cooperation due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

American representatives later rejected such claims.

Mykhailo Honchar from the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" believes that the current situation is reminiscent of last year's conflict in the White House, but he sees no reason for panic.

"Even last year, there were threats to stop the exchange of intelligence data and delays in the delivery of weapons. Later, the Americans realized that such a policy harms their interests, so they renewed the cooperation," says Hončar.

Trump looking for a scapegoat?

DW interlocutors mostly associate Trump's increased attacks on Ukraine with the congressional elections that will be held on November 3.

In those elections, the entire convocation of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are elected, and high fuel prices have become one of the central themes of the campaign.

Ivan Us from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv believes that the Republicans are threatened with a serious political blow due to energy prices.

"Donald Trump wants at all costs to divert attention from the fact that the high prices are connected to his war against Iran and the problems in the Strait of Hormuz. For that he needs a scapegoat and he decided to make it Ukraine", according to Us.

Photo: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Mihajlo Hončar also believes that the agreement primarily benefits Moscow. "The whole diesel thing looks like Putin's veiled plea to Trump to put more pressure on Ukraine," the analyst said.

Hončar also points to reports according to which investors connected to Trump's environment could be interested in buying foreign assets of the Russian energy concern Lukoil.

How to respond to American pressure?

Oleksandr Krajiv from the Ukrainian Prisma analytical center warns that Kyiv should avoid emotional reactions.

"If we slam the door out of resentment, it certainly won't help us. In that case, military aid and intelligence cooperation would come into question, and we can't afford that," Crajiv believes.

In his opinion, Ukraine should simultaneously work together with Germany, Denmark, Great Britain and France to make deliveries of Russian diesel to the USA politically and logistically unfeasible.

Ivan Us advises against interpreting Trump's public statements too dramatically. "You can say whatever you want, what's important is what's happening in reality," says Us.

He believes that Ukrainian diplomacy should maintain contacts with Republicans and the MAGA movement, where criticism of Trump's agreement with Putin is already appearing.
Some Republicans warn that additional revenues from diesel sales could indirectly benefit Iran and other Russian allies.

Possible legal obstacles

The US does not rule out the possibility that Trump's decision will end up in court. Republican Sen. Tom Tillish told NBC that there is a possibility that the president is violating the 2022 law that banned the import of Russian oil and other energy products.

In Uso's view, announcements about the possible withholding of weapons and intelligence are more about creating political impression than actual policy change.

"Such statements are aimed at convincing the markets that Washington is taking decisive steps and thus influencing energy prices," according to Us.

What after the American elections?

All three experts agree that Kiev should withstand the pressure at least until the US elections are over.

Oleksandr Krajiv believes that Trump may soften his approach after the election. Leaving Ukraine, he warns, would send a signal of weakness to China, which is closely following developments around Taiwan.

Mihajlo Hončar reminds that some Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives are already speaking out against the agreement with Russia. He also mentions the legislative proposal initiated by Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick with the aim of blocking the purchase of Russian energy products.

"Despite all the threats and possible temporary measures against Kiev, it is unlikely that Trump will go much further. The situation should not be viewed apocalyptically," Honchar believes.

In his opinion, the American pressure could also have an unwanted consequence for Washington: an additional approach of Ukraine to its European allies.

That is why many in Kyiv see the current crisis as a serious challenge, but not as a turning point that could change the course of the war or relations with the West.

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