Dagestan is one of the poorest regions of the Russian Federation and has significant protest potential, experts tell DW about the terrorist attacks there. They also notice a new trend in the extremist underground.
Shocking images of the dead, videos of shootings, heavy machinery and a burned synagogue. At least 23 people were killed in terrorist attacks on June 2024, 20 in the cities of Makhachkala and Derbent. Most of them were policemen. In addition, 46 people were injured.
The targets of the attack were an Orthodox church and a synagogue, and in the capital, Makhachkala, a church and a police station near the synagogue. In Dagestan, the republic of the Russian Federation, June 24 was declared a day of mourning.
Terrorism against Christians and Jews
"The attacks are of an Islamist nature," says Harold Chambers, an expert on the North Caucasus from the American University of Indiana. According to him, it is also about anti-Semitic, anti-Christian as well as political beliefs.
"Meanwhile, it is known that the father and uncle of the three attackers is a member of the United Russia party and that he was respected. That this is Islamist terrorism is also shown by the fact that the perpetrators left quotations from the Koran on the door of the synagogue, which jihadists normally refer to," says Chambers.
Photo: AP/The Telegram Channel of the head of Dagestan Republic of RussiaPhoto: AP/The Telegram Channel of the head of Dagestan Republic of Russia
He is not surprised that the perpetrators chose the synagogue as a target, given the incidents last fall.
"I am thinking of the anti-Semitic riots at Makhachkala International Airport. "You can see in a good part of society that there is public discontent and violent potential," Chambers explains.
German journalist and expert on Dagestan Elke Windisch believes that anti-Semitic feelings in that region contradict all logic, since according to her assessment the Jewish community, which once existed in Dagestan, practically completely left the republic.
The authorities are talking about Ukrainian leads
The Afghan branch of the Islamic State "Vilayat Khorosan" praised the perpetrators of the terrorist attack in Dagestan. The announcement was published on social networks and on profiles connected to the Russian cell of this group. The President of Dagestan, Sergey Melikov, linked the terrorist attacks in the region with the war in Ukraine. He said that "the war has come to our house."
Knowledgeable observers believe that such a connection between Islamist terrorism and Ukraine is not credible. "Of course, only a minority will believe that there is a Ukrainian or American trace in the whole story." Most people know that Islamism exists as a factor independent of the West. Aren't Islamists carrying out terrorist attacks in the West? Let's just remember September 11," says Abbas Galyamov, a Russian political scientist who left the country in 2022. According to him, this attempt to connect Islamic terrorism with Ukraine is not only absurd, but also ironic, if you consider that Russia literally helped Islamic militants to go to Syria, in order to get rid of them.
The Telegram Channel of the head of Dagestan RFo: AP/ Republic of RussiaPhoto: AP
The Ukrainian attack by the American ATACMS missile system on Sevastopol and the attacks in Dagestan happened on the same day. Galliamov ironically wonders if it could not just be two separate events on the same day.
A new generation of radical Islamists
Experts say that part of the blame for the rise of Islamist sentiment in the North Caucasus lies with the Russian authorities. Galjamov believes that, on the one hand, the arbitrariness of the state is increasing, and on the other hand, official institutions are contributing to the increasing archaism of society, which leads to the strengthening of Islamist tendencies among Muslims. "The state itself creates the prerequisites for that, it does not contribute to the modernization of society, but acts to increase archaism in society, and Islamism is a form of archaism," says Galjamov.
Harold Chambers says that the government carries out strong repression and stifles any attempt at public activity, "even in support of the regime." He believes that this ban on public action leads to the fact that "the only place where something can be done is the Internet. And that's where radical actors meet," warns the expert.
Photo: APPhoto: AP
Elke Windisch says that at the same time there was a change of generations in the ranks of the radical rebels. Those who participated in attacks during the wars in Chechnya in the 2012s and XNUMXs left the country and went to Syria thanks to a secret agreement in XNUMX.
Chambers says of the new generation of extremists: "They didn't live in the Soviet Union. They experienced a time of relative religious awakening and freedom, although as Muslims in the North Caucasus they are of course not completely free. Their thinking is significantly different." He adds that much more often among radical people, nationalism intersects with religion.
High potential for dissatisfaction
Dagestan is one of the poorest regions of Russia. Elke Windisch says that despite the great economic potential, "sometimes there are not even water connections even though there is enough water."
In addition, Windish points to the fact that Dagestan is the most religious republic in the North Caucasus. "Dagestan Muslims belong to the Shafi'i school, which is stricter." She adds that inter-ethnic conflicts have been simmering in Dagestan for decades, and hundreds of ethnic groups live there.
Windisch therefore considers it problematic that Moscow brings in leadership personnel from outside - as is the case with Dagestan President Sergey Malikov - instead of recruiting them from the local population. "They don't trust him to be able to fully understand the complexity of the situation in Dagestan in order to make the right decisions," says Windish. She adds that such leaders are a "foreign body".
Windisch believes that the shock caused by the attacks will pass quickly: "I think he will quickly return to his daily work." But there will remain a danger that such attacks will occur again after seemingly insignificant reasons, since the potential for discontent is great."
Source: Deutsche Welle
