A cargo plane German parcel service DHL crashed in Lithuania, two underwater data transmission cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea, and to everyone's surprise, in Romania pro-russian the right-wing extremist enters the second round of the presidential elections. Although nothing has been proven yet, some Western politicians and secret services suspect that Russia is behind everything.
The dangers posed by the Kremlin's so-called "hybrid war" are not new, but experts warn that Russia has continuously expanded its arsenal of hybrid warfare in recent years, and that the danger has increased since it invaded Ukraine in 2022.
"Hybrid war" is actually an extension of a purely military combat operation with the help of espionage, sabotage, cyber attacks, interference in elections, propaganda or disinformation campaigns - with the aim of weakening and destabilizing the enemy from within, writes DW.
Espionage
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European countries have expelled around 500 Russian diplomats. Britain's secret service MI5 classifies at least 400 of them as spies. State-of-the-art communications and spy technology is said to have been installed in many Russian embassies and consulates general.
This cannot be proven with certainty - after all, the buildings are considered Russian sovereign territory and enjoy the status of diplomatic protection.
The Dutch secret service has also warned that Russia is smuggling spies with false documents into Western institutions disguised as businessmen.
Reports accusing Russia of espionage appear regularly. Whether it's the Bundeswehr's intercepted conversations about the Taurus missile defense system, suspicious Russian drones over European air bases and industrial zones, or alleged research vessels cruising the seas of northern Europe suspected of mapping critical infrastructure on the seabed for possible sabotage .
Sabotage
Last week, a Chinese cargo ship piloted by a Russian captain reportedly damaged two submarine cables with an anchor trailing along the seabed. Parallels are being drawn with a similar incident in October 2023. Last month, a warehouse in London that housed aid to Ukraine was set on fire. In July, a package that was supposed to be sent by air caught fire at DHL's logistics center in Leipzig. In these and numerous other cases, Russian sabotage is suspected. However, nothing has been proven yet.
However, European intelligence services warn that the number of sabotage and arson attacks in the EU and Great Britain has increased dramatically in the last year.
Cyber attacks
Germany's Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) warns that cyberspace is also at risk "more than ever". "Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian-linked attack groups were active in Germany, particularly through cyber espionage and financially motivated attacks with so-called ransomware. "Since the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the range of threats has expanded," BSI said.
"The number of DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attacks by pro-Russian hackers" has skyrocketed: the websites or servers of institutions are so flooded with harmful content that they can no longer function. Hacker attacks aimed at breaking into the protected networks of companies or institutions are also on the rise.
Disinformation and propaganda
Another major area of hybrid warfare activity is trying to influence public opinion in a country. For this purpose, false information, as well as pro-Russian or anti-Ukrainian narratives, are being spread, either through so-called troll factories on social networks or through Russian foreign media.
In early 2024, the German Foreign Ministry discovered a so-called "lookalike campaign": 50.000 fake user accounts were spreading disinformation and pro-Russian views on social media, and then those accounts were redirecting users to fake websites - which looked almost identical to well-known media outlets portals - where pro-Russian disinformation was also spread.
Interference in elections and political processes
A key goal of these disinformation campaigns is to undermine popular support for Ukraine. The goal is also to undermine political stability in the (democratic) target country by strengthening extreme parties and their candidates - for example, through financial support.
In April, the Czech intelligence service exposed a propaganda portal called "Voice of Europe", which is suspected of being funded by Moscow. Bribe payments to various European MPs were allegedly made through that page. Among those suspected of receiving such payments is Petr Bistron, AfD member of the European Parliament, who denies the accusations.
Western intelligence services have long accused Russia of direct or indirect interference in elections in Europe, as well as in North and South America. Allegedly, during the US presidential election, the Russian television station Russia Today (RT) produced videos on controversial topics, such as aid to Ukraine, migration and the economy, which were then disseminated through right-wing bloggers in the US.
Among the Russian methods of hybrid warfare is the so-called "hacking and leaking", where politicians or parties are targeted and classified documents — often mixed with forged content — are released just before an election. This happened during the 2016 US election and the 2017 French presidential election.
Targeted liquidations
Targeted liquidations of opposing leaders also fall under hybrid warfare methods. That Russian President Vladimir Putin does not shy away from assassinations abroad is shown by cases such as the murder of the former Chechen commander in Berlin's Tiergarten park, as well as the attacks in Great Britain on Kremlin critics Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and Sergei Skripal with his daughter Yulia in 2018.
Although most of the victims of such attacks were Russian citizens, in July 2024 it was reported that Russia planned the assassination of Armin Paperger, the president of the German military company Rheinmetall. The Kremlin denies the accusations. The Rheinmetall company, among other things, produces Leopard II tanks, which are delivered to Ukraine.
Russia is currently using various methods to influence Europe, explained Zenke Mararens, a Bundeswehr officer and hybrid security expert, in an interview with the public service portal Tageschau. According to him, Russian operatives apply various tactics adapted to the specifics of each country: "Hybrid measures that work in Poland do not work in Germany; what works in Germany would have no effect in Finland."
Therefore, Mararens points out, a wide range of attacks must still be counted on. This implies a high level of flexibility in responding to such threats, in order to effectively counter various types of hybrid attacks.
