Ukraine and Russia have signaled their willingness to rebuild trilateral negotiations under the patronage of Washington. "We are preparing. For October," said Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of staff of the Ukrainian president. Similar messages are coming from Moscow: "We do not rule out such a possibility. We are talking about the foreseeable future," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kiev in the first week of September with the aim of reviving trilateral negotiations and ending the war in Ukraine. The previous round of talks was held in January and February 2026 in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, but without results, as the issue of control over the territories in the east of Ukraine remained unresolved. writes Deutsche Welle.
The issue of territory remains a stumbling block
Vladimir Putin still claims more territory than Russia currently controls, Kushner confirmed on September 12, during an online tap into the YES security conference in Kyiv.
"President Putin has clearly drawn the line of what he wants to achieve. If Ukraine wants to retreat to that line, it is obvious that we have the rest of the agreement ready. Ukraine does not want that at this moment," the American envoy emphasized.
The Ukrainian government has indicated its willingness to freeze the conflict along the current front line in exchange for security guarantees.
According to a survey of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in the summer of 2026, 60 percent of Ukrainians would support such a step. At the same time, the majority of respondents refuse to hand over the territories that Russia failed to conquer, while 33 percent believe that Ukraine should hand over the areas that Putin demands.
Russian air supremacy – a key problem for Kyiv
Few expect a quick success in the negotiations. "In order to end the war through negotiations, there must be parity. There is currently a stalemate on the front and little is changing there, but in the air war, unfortunately, Russia has a significant advantage," political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko from Kyiv told DW.
Ukraine is running out of missiles to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. In addition, Russia has stepped up attacks with new jet-powered drones, which fly faster than older models and are harder to shoot down. Russian airstrikes are increasingly hitting Ukraine's economy - warehouses, energy plants, gas stations and railway infrastructure.
On the other hand, the Kremlin accuses Kiev of opening a "Pandora's box" with long-range attacks on the Russian economy and energy facilities, which have been ongoing since the summer. Kiev claims that these attacks are aimed at forcing Russia to sit down at the negotiating table.
Ukraine fears winter
Kiev's Western allies believe that Ukraine's strategy is yielding results.
"Escalation is not a problem, but a sign of success," said Jonathan Powell, the UK's national security adviser, at the YES conference in Kyiv on September 11. "Of course, Putin is not going straight to negotiations, but is trying to escalate the situation in any way he can."
Powell added that the West must "keep up the pressure" to force Putin into serious negotiations.
However, this optimism is at odds with serious concerns in Ukraine itself about the coming winter. During 2025, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure caused long-term power cuts and left citizens without heating in freezing temperatures.
"We expect a very difficult winter, both because of the critical infrastructure that is being destroyed every day in Russian attacks, and because of the general economic conditions in the country," said Ukrainian Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko.
Zelenski calls for partial de-escalation
Russia has rejected the idea of a ceasefire during the upcoming talks. Kiev is therefore calling for the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure and the unblocking of grain exports across the Black Sea.
"What can even lead us to negotiations? Energy and grain. That's the first step, what we can achieve," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with DW, broadcast on September 12.
Political scientist Fesenko believes that an agreement on the export of grain could be an easier task: "On the Black Sea, both Ukraine and Russia are facing big problems. The export of grain is blocked, the ports are closed, so both sides have an interest in solving it."
On the other hand, an energy truce is difficult to achieve. The vulnerability of Ukraine during the winter gives Putin a powerful tool of pressure that he will not let go easily, Fesenko estimates.
At the same time, the US is increasing pressure on Kiev to stop attacks on Russian energy facilities.
"Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing: He has to stop destroying diesel fuel in Russia," Donald Trump said on Sunday, September 13. "There are many other targets. Don't hit the diesel fuel, it damages the whole world."
The Kremlin rejected the meeting between Zelensky and Putin
The Kremlin has already rejected another proposal by Zelensky - a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders in December, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Miami.
"Putin does not want to negotiate with Zelensky. It has been obvious since last year that he wants an agreement with Trump," says Fesenko. "If Trump insists, Putin could agree to a trilateral meeting of the leaders. But he has no intention of conducting direct negotiations with Zelensky."
If the negotiations start in October, they will be led by negotiating teams, not by the leaders themselves. However, Kyiv insists that only presidents can decide on territorial issues.
"The territorial issue remains burning... Complex issues like this are resolved only at the level of leaders," Zelensky said during the visit of American envoys to Kyiv.
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