The renewal of armed conflicts, a new blockade of navigation through Hormuz accompanied by a jump in the price of oil, a barrage of mutual accusations and the exchange of flaming threats - this is the description of the state of the American-Iranian conflict since the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17 was de facto terminated.
When he went to war with Israel in June 2025 and at the end of February 2026, Donald Trump's goal was to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile programs, neutralize the Axis of Resistance, which consists of Iran's regional allies, and "create the conditions" for overthrowing the theocratic regime in Tehran. Neither goal was achieved, but a new problem was created. Today, everything revolves around Hormuz, a strategic sea route through which a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports pass. In a situation of dangerous chaos and confusion, the Americans no longer even mention the goals for which they embarked on aggression.
In the Islamic Republic, Moreuz gained the status of a symbol of triumph in the war with militarily superior opponents. For her, Hormuz is a guarantee of survival and the most effective weapon for mass disruption of the global economy. The more the Donald Trump administration presses, the more Tehran tightens its position over Hormuz and shows that it accepts a new expansion of the conflict in the Gulf.
VICINOUS CIRCLE OF CONFLICT
In the first days of the ceasefire in April, Iran announced that the passage was "completely open" to commercial traffic through "coordinated corridors" and that it would abolish the tolls it had been charging. On the same day, Trump confirmed that he was renewing the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran interpreted this as a violation of the agreement, closed Hormuz again and targeted ships that tried to sail without Tehran's consent. Today, everything revolves around the distribution of control in the post-war navigation management. However, the Memorandum not only left for later the issues of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, but was also vague about Hormuz. Point 5 – Iran will take measures, using every effort for the safe passage of commercial vessels without charge, only 60 days, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa - Tehran interprets it as the right to monitor navigation during the agreed 60-day ceasefire.
Washington is trying to activate the southern route through the territorial waters of Oman and thus throw Iran out of the game, but the authorities in Tehran are not giving up. They retaliated by targeting tankers, after which Trump ordered new bombings and announced that the ceasefire no longer exists and that the US controls Hormuz.
"Hormuz is OPEN, and it will be OPEN, with or without Iran," Trump wrote on his social network and announced the renewal of the naval blockade of Iranian ports and vessels and the revocation of the decision to allow Iran to export oil unhindered. Iran reiterated that Hormuz was blocked again, and Revolutionary Guard forces hit a tanker-two, enough to send the world price of oil soaring. The deputy head of Iranian diplomacy admitted that Tehran no longer fulfills the obligations assumed by the Memorandum, accusing the US of being the first to violate the agreement.
The Americans targeted targets all over the country, and the attack near an oncology hospital in the southwest of the country was called "barbaric" by Tehran. The Iranians retaliate with missile attacks on American bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, as well as Syria and Jordan.
Trump "in honor" of three dead soldiers - two in Jordan and one in Iraq - ordered a new wave of attacks throughout Iran for the ninth consecutive day. The number of Americans killed since the beginning of the war rose to 17, with 400 wounded. The spiral of violence continues to rise. The Iranians have confirmed that they not only have a significant stockpile of missiles, but that they are successfully evading US air defense systems.
photo: ap photoAFTER THE US AIR STRIKE: A destroyed bridge in the province of Homozgan in the south of Iran
The vicious circle closes. Both sides wish for an end to the conflict, but are ready for a war of attrition in order to gain as much as possible in the negotiations that will continue at some point.
If Tehran does not return to negotiations, Trump thunders that he will "reset the button", which will be a "fiasco" for Iran. Attacks on military installations in Iran's coastal region are expanding with attacks on civilian infrastructure - power plants, bridges and water desalination plants. The threat was partially realized, even though it was a war crime.
Trump declares victory one day, continues the war the next. There are many pompous but inconsistent words. His military strategy has so far failed to force Tehran to make concessions. Iran is only getting tougher. The same mistakes are repeated. "Just stop talking," says prominent "Washington Post" columnist David Ignatius to Trump.
At the invitation of Tehran, the Hutu allies in Yemen announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb passage, the oil transport route through the Red Sea, which would completely paralyze the global market.
CREATING A NEW BALANCE OF POWER
At the same time, Trump is proverbially calculating with profit all the time. It seems ready to accept Iran's request to charge for the passage of commercial ships, but since it declares the US the "Guardian of Hormuz", it demands that America also collect a 20 percent transit tax, significantly more than the tax previously imposed on ships by Iran. It seems that this shipping fee will be inevitable, but how to harmonize it with international regulations on freedom of navigation?
Iran is playing a card that has proven to be a trump card: prolonged attacks threaten oil exports from the Middle East, so Trump would be to blame if the energy crisis causes a global recession. The escalation is a confirmation of deep differences in expectations of what the peace deal should achieve. Washington is confident that increased military pressure will force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations on American terms. Full of confidence regardless of the destruction, Tehran is convinced that a new regional balance of power has already been created and that there is no going back to the old ways. From the Iranian perspective, Hormuz has changed because its strategic environment has changed. The memorandum failed because Trump interprets the ceasefire as a return to the old Hormuz order, and Iran does not want that.
Iran no longer wants to negotiate the past. Behind everything is a strategic conclusion that is looming after the funeral of the liquidated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The leadership in Tehran sees the six-day processions in Iran and Iraq not only as a farewell to the leader who led the Islamic Republic for the longest time, but as a confirmation that the country has overcome the shocking American-Israeli attack without losing its internal cohesion or regional influence. That is why the negotiations must respect the new realities, and not renew the old ones. This explains why diplomacy is perceived as another front of the conflict, and not as an alternative to war.
Iranian officials believe Washington is behind a slow-moving war of attrition by combining sanctions, military operations and negotiations to extract concessions from Tehran. Iran is not ready for that and estimates that combat operations must shape the course of negotiations. "The world today belongs to the field of war," says one Iranian official. In Tehran, they believe that diplomacy is only worthwhile if it accepts the new balances created during the conflict.
WAR AS THE ONLY ARENA
While sticking to the position that Hormuz is its red line, Tehran shows that it is still ready for new talks. Compromise is necessary because Iranian ports are blocked until maritime traffic is normalized. China, which buys about 90 percent of Iran's oil, is interested in the reopening of Hormuz, so Beijing certainly influences the Iranians.
There is a struggle between two wills. The Iranians are carefully calibrating their moves, but the risk is that the game is being played on the edge of the abyss and that neither side has full control of events. The question is therefore no longer whether the previous understanding can be restored, but whether Iran and the US still believe that it reflects the strategic realities created by the war. The danger is that, as both sides look for ways to strengthen their negotiating positions, war threatens to become the only arena in which the other side's concessions can be made.
The military escalation also accelerated the diplomatic one. Negotiators from Qatar leave for Tehran. The Iranian president contacted the Pakistani prime minister, reopening the channel that led to the Islamabad deal. Washington interprets these contacts as a signal of the weakness of the Iranians and their desire to return to negotiations at any cost, which Tehran denies not only verbally but also with "reciprocal actions" in the Middle East.
Trump threatens but avoids actions that would require a prolonged war in the region. Although he declared that the government in Tehran was "scum" and that negotiations were a "waste of time", he reactivated his negotiators and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar.
So much for Americans and Iranians. What about the third direct protagonist of the war - Israel?
Israel has its own fears. He believes Trump has focused on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and is not showing enough determination to prevent the rebuilding of Iran's nuclear facilities, which he claims is underway. "Nobody is talking about the nuclear issue. Imagine North Korea on Hormuz. That is the worst possible scenario for us," said an unnamed Israeli intelligence officer, quoted by "Al-Monitor".
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to convince Trump that Tehran is buying time by periodically renewing hostilities. He was successful when he dragged the American into the war on February 28, but the question is whether he can do it again. Trump has lost his patience and wants an end to the war. Iranians have time. The Israelis would prefer to strike one more time, but the head of the White House told them clearly, in a commanding tone, not to do so.
DIPLOMACY DOES NOT DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS
Mediators are now focused on finding a temporary arrangement for navigation through Hormuz that would last four to six weeks until a permanent solution acceptable not only to the US and Iran but also to the Gulf countries is found. Will it be a return to the navigation schemes prescribed in 1968 by the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, or some new arrangement? It is only certain that Tehran rejects the mission of Europeans and NATO armies. Until then, the naval mines littering the Persian Gulf should be removed. That work has not even started.
Peace is uncertain. Diplomacy is not stopped, but it is no longer the one that determines the course of events. Until some compromise is reached, this phase of the Gulf War threatens the region, the world, and America once again. Trump, who spoke against interventions and "eternal wars" during the campaign, is in danger of falling into the same trap as his predecessors, from Vietnam to Afghanistan to Iraq. He overestimated military power, so after 47 years of hostility with Iran, he is now halfway between negotiations and military operations that could last.
