Americans without college degrees have long been a key part of the support Trump. But he won in 2024 by also attracting groups that tend to support the now opposition Democrats, including Hispanic adults.
More Americans than ever consider themselves independent, and they are among the groups that have aligned themselves with Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Any erosion of that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans ahead of the fall general elections, which are often seen as a reflection of how voters feel about their governing party.
The analysis shows that while about half of independent voters who do not consider themselves supporters of any party and who do not have a college education had a favorable opinion of Trump at the time of the election in 2024, only a quarter of that group approve of his actions this spring. That shift erased the large education gap that existed among independent voters before Trump took office for his second term, with all independents now holding similarly negative views of the president regardless of education level.
The analysis was conducted by pooling nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, providing a deeper look at how support for Trump changed, including with the start of the Iran war.
Trump's approval rating has also declined among several small but important groups vying for the 2024 presidential election, including black and Hispanic independent voters.
Tafari Torres, a senior research fellow at NORC who co-authored the analysis, noted that while Democrats' and Republicans' views of Trump have largely remained stable in his second term, independents' opinions continue to shift as they largely react to events and are now reducing their support.
Economy
Trump's return to the White House was fueled in part by independent voters who saw him as a stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. The new analysis, which looks at Trump's favorability and presidential approval ratings, shows that since he took office, their views have deteriorated rapidly.
Independent voters without a college degree had a much more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents during and immediately after the 2024 election, but that changed in the first few months of his term. Favorable views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48 percent in the months before he returned to office to 31 percent in polls conducted during Trump's first 100 days back in office. Those views fell even further, to around one-quarter, during the government funding shutdown at the end of last year and the first months of 2026.
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