In the latest World Economic Forecasts, the IMF estimated that the world economy has so far withstood the conflict in the Middle East, but that oil supplies are running out and that additional shocks could quickly be transmitted to prices and supply.
The IMF said in its semi-annual report that global growth in the last six months has weathered the war better than feared, as the rerouting of oil shipments past the Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic stocks have softened the impact of the US-Iran war on oil prices. He warned, however, that strategic stocks are now depleted and that high debt and deficits in many countries leave governments with little capacity to protect consumers from future price spikes.
Without strengthening supply and rebuilding political reserves, it said, the world economy could soon reach its limits of resilience, and supplies in energy markets are dwindling.
Silvana Tenreiro, the IMF's economic adviser, said at the launch of the report that the economy had been resilient, but that resilience was reaching its limits, and called on policymakers to move from "mere adjustment to rebuilding".
Before the meeting, IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva called on governments to tighten their belts due to the growth of public debt and not to postpone the necessary measures.
In the forecasts, the IMF raised global growth to 3,1 percent for this year, and left it at 3,4 percent for 2027. For the US, it predicts 2,3 percent this year and the same in 2027, with a slight increase for next year from 2,2 percent. For Great Britain, the forecast is 1,3 percent, which is 0,3 percentage points more than in July.
In March, the International Energy Agency announced the largest emergency release of oil stocks to the market in history, and after a meeting of ministers, it promised to speed it up. According to reports, the US strategic oil reserve recently fell to its lowest level since 1982.
Last week, Donald Trump agreed with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on the import of Russian diesel into the US in order to reduce prices at the pumps, but analysts estimate that this will not have a significant impact.
The report was released on Tuesday in Bangkok, where finance ministers and central bank governors are meeting, and British Chancellor John Healy is due to arrive later in the week.
Oil stocks and state budgets are two "cushions" that cushion shocks, and the IMF warns that both are worn out. This means that a new supply or fuel price disruption would hit consumers more quickly, as governments have less room to protect them with subsidies or other measures.
For citizens and companies, this is reflected in the prices of fuel and other products, and for states, the question of how much they can spend without further burdening the debt. The fund is therefore asking governments to restore stocks and fiscal reserves before the next shock.
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