This year's Munich Security Conference is not only a forum for discussion but also a litmus test for the future of the transatlantic alliance. Will Europe be able to respond to Trump's new demands and pressures?
The traditionally close relations between the United States of America and Europe have characterized it for decades Munich Security Conference. Regardless of some differences of opinion, the base on which that relationship rested was untouchable. The two sides cooperated and valued each other.
But after returning Donald Trump to the White House, even what seemed quite stable for decades is no longer certain. The conference that begins this Friday, known in the world as the Munich Security Conference (MSC), is therefore considered a litmus test for the current state of transatlantic relations. Deutsche Welle (DW).
New friction between the US and its allies?
It is only clear that already in the first weeks of Trump's second presidential term, a new wind is blowing from Washington: "America first", that is Trump's motto, which he sticks to even when his policies are harming his allies. Those tussles could mark some debate at Munich's posh Bayerischer Hof hotel, where politicians, military officials and experts from around the world are meeting from February 14 to 16.
About 60 heads of state and government are expected at the Munich conference. That meeting is reputed to be the most important global forum for topics related to security policy. From the ranks of the new US administration, the arrival in Bavaria was confirmed by, apart from Vice President JD Vance, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Marco Rubio, but not by the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsett. In addition, as announced by the head of the MCS, Christoph Heusgen, the arrival of one of the largest delegations from the US Congress that has ever attended a meeting in Munich is expected. Among the guests is the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Harsher tones between the US and Europe
The Munich Security Conference is an informal meeting where no conclusions are adopted. This is precisely why there is an open exchange of arguments, and conflicts are not swept under the rug.
Donald Trump has already started practicing new, sharper tones in transatlantic relations. In the official Report of the Munich Conference (Munich Security Report), which was published on the eve of the conference, the statement of the American President that he gave during the election campaign is quoted - that European nations are exploiting the USA in terms of trade, but also within NATO. Trump's threat to the Europeans is also reported: "If you don't pay, we won't protect you."
The thorn in Trump's side, as he sees it, are the too small investments of some European NATO partners in equipping their military forces. On that issue, he criticized Germany on several occasions. Washington has so far borne most of NATO's costs and has continuously offered reliable military protection to Europe.
That is no longer the case: Trump demands that allies spend five percent of their GDP on defense. With great difficulty, Germany barely manages to set aside two percent, which in the meantime has become the (minimum) standard in the Alliance.
And that Republican Trump is quite capable of rigorously withdrawing American money from organizations that operate internationally, he has already proven it. Judging by the statements from the Munich Conference Report, Trump's camp justified it by saying that even a world superpower like the USA has only limited resources, that is, it should use those resources for the benefit of its country. The term "limited resources" is indeed one of the central premises of the foreign policy thinking of American Republicans, the MSC report states.
Outlines of a peace plan for Ukraine?
This could have a negative impact on aid to Ukraine, as the US has been the leading country in this regard until now. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump's envoy for Ukraine Kate Kellogg will certainly not lack for topics to talk about. The two are also expected in Munich.
Ahead of the conference, rumors began to spread that Kellogg might present the Trump administration's plan to end the war in Ukraine in Munich. When asked about this, Conference head Heusgen offered a reserved answer: "We hope that Munich will be used. And we see certain indications that there could be progress on the issue of peace in Ukraine as well."
Heusgen expressed the hope that the peace plan could take shape in Munich. At the same time, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine must be guaranteed, the German diplomat emphasized. In the earlier days of his career, Heusgen was a foreign policy advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that is, the German ambassador to the United Nations in New York.
However, representatives of the Russian government were not invited to the MSC. The basis for sending the invitations is "readiness for dialogue", emphasizes Heusgen, "and as long as President Putin does not recognize the government in Kiev, does not recognize Zelensky, I do not see the prerequisites for such a dialogue". Representatives of the Russian opposition and non-governmental organizations from that country are welcome in Munich.
Trump's claims on Greenland
Unrest and outrage in Europe were caused by Trump's threats that, if necessary, he will annex certain areas with the help of force - among other things Grenland, which formally belongs to Denmark. US Vice President JD Vance supports Trump's expansionist plans. If he strengthens this in Munich, he can expect strong opposition, primarily from representatives of the EU and other European countries.
They have already responded to Trump's threats with a warning, stressing that the US must also comply with international law. "The inviolability of borders is one of the basic principles of international law. That principle must apply to everyone," commented German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
It was not without reason that MCS chief Heusgen repeatedly emphasized the importance of international law ahead of the conference: "From my perspective, there is no better alternative than the order reflected in the United Nations Charter."
One week until the elections in Germany
This time, German domestic politics will play a special role at the conference: the meeting, namely, is being held just one week before the early elections for the Bundestag (February 23) - that is, at the very end of the pre-election campaign. Several chancellor candidates, i.e. list holders, have confirmed their participation in the MSC. Among them is the head of the CDU and the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democrats Friedrich Mertz, which polls predict will win the election.
It is to be expected that in their performances they will primarily talk about how much money Germany will invest in the Bundeswehr in the future, that is, where that money should come from, given the bad situation in the budget. The question is not whether, but how Germany and Europe can do more for their own security in the future. With Donald Trump back in the White House, the topic could be discussed at the Munich Security Conference with more urgency than ever before.
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