The nationalist leaders of Sinn Fein, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Camry are for the first time simultaneously the prime ministers of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Sister parties that make up a kind of Celtic alliance used the moment in which they have a majority in all three parliaments in order to London sent a perhaps not so urgent, but important message. In the capital of Wales, Cardiff, three nationalist leaders signed an agreement saying that "no government in Westminster has the right to block democracy". Democracy in this case means the right to self-determination. The truth is, however, that Westminster has every constitutional right to block the calling of a referendum and the possible secession of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
And while Scottish Prime Minister John Sweeney and Northern Irish Prime Minister Michelle O'Neill have called for a referendum on independence, Wales' Rhyn ap Yorwerth has refused to set a sequence of steps that would eventually lead to secession. What all three nations have in common is that they reject the right of the government in London, the British government based in England, to determine if and when Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland can exercise their right to self-determination.
But each of the leaders of these three nations gathered in the Celtic Alliance wants different things. The Scottish SNP wants independence, which they unsuccessfully tried to get in the 2014 referendum. The Welsh Nationalist Party, which won provincial parliamentary elections in May, wants greater autonomy within the United Kingdom, while Northern Ireland's Sinn Féin, the modern version of which emerged as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), has consistently advocated unification with the Republic of Ireland. "For people watching what is happening in these islands of ours - for people following events around the world - there could be no clearer sign that the age of Westminster is coming to an end," said the First Ministers from Cardiff.
The weight of the message may be lessened by the fact that the leaders of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales appeared at the summit in Cardiff in the capacity of presidents of their parties, and not as prime ministers. The Cardiff Agreement is not an official document and has no legally binding character, nor the power to trigger constitutional changes within the United Kingdom. However, as "Guardian" columnist Simon Jenkins notes, "this is something like a silent earthquake, as three nations want to break free from English domination."
MOOD OF THE PEOPLE
The year 2014 was perhaps the most likely moment to split the union that is called Great Britain when it means the island on which England, Wales and Scotland are located, while the United Kingdom is considered when Northern Ireland is also included in it. Two years before the British will vote by a narrow majority to leave the European Union, Scottish citizens had the chance to answer the referendum question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" 45 percent of citizens gave a positive answer, but 55 percent still wanted to stay in Great Britain. According to some surveys, the majority of votes for remaining in Britain occurred in the last weeks of the campaign when Westminster promised to allow the Scots "devo-max", that is, maximum fiscal autonomy and greater powers to manage state money. The Scottish National Party has never given up on the issue of Scottish independence, especially after Brexit. Scotland voted by majority to remain in the European Union and on several occasions the Scottish leaders, who are mostly from the ranks of the SNP, announced that they would find a way to return to Europe.
EXIT FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM, RETURN TO EUROPE
The question of the European Union, in fact, lingers like a ghost over the Cardiff agreement, just as the question of Scottish independence is relevant even today. The latest opinion polls suggest that 47 percent of Scottish voters would vote for independence in tomorrow's referendum, with 36 percent of voters in Northern Ireland and 32 percent in Wales doing the same. Support for independence in Scotland has hovered between 45 and 50 percent since the 2014 referendum. However, those Scots who are in favor of remaining in the community often point to Scotland's fiscal deficit of 25 billion pounds which, in turn, is covered by the British Ministry of Finance based in London and which maintains the Scottish health system which, just like the English one, is facing serious difficulties.
The question is how much subsequent joining or some form of community with the countries of the European Union, after they have left it together as the United Kingdom, would contribute to improving the quality of life of the inhabitants. In the British media and discussions about whether and how much it would be better if they stayed in Europe, the "Celtic Tiger" is often taken as an example, that is, Ireland, which in the early 1920s was among the poorest European countries. Its economic self-sustainability seemed almost impossible for a long time, and then its membership in the European Union and the introduction of a highly autonomous fiscal policy completely transformed it. Dublin developed at lightning speed and because it allowed many large technology companies like Amazon and Apple to have their European headquarters in Ireland and take advantage of its tax policy of almost negligible taxation.
Long before Brexit, Northern Ireland, or rather its Catholic part of the population, aspired to be united with Ireland. The latest census and demographic trends in Northern Ireland show that there are fewer and fewer Protestants, while both Brexit and the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union have intensified the question of the potential unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. And Northern Ireland, just like Scotland, voted by majority in the referendum to remain in the EU. But in order for a hypothetical referendum in Northern Ireland to be held, permission must come from London, by the Minister for Northern Ireland assessing whether it is likely that the majority population wants unification with Ireland, that is, leaving the union with England, Scotland and Wales.
When it comes to Wales, nationalism there was largely based on language and culture and the preservation of the specific identity characteristics of that people. Currently, Welsh Prime Minister Ap Jorwerth is primarily tasked with creating a competent administration and gaining greater powers to govern Wales.
"THE LAST PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT BRITAIN"
Commenting on the meeting of the Prime Ministers of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in Cardiff, the Scottish newspaper "Morning Star" described it as a historic moment that exposed the cracks within the United Kingdom. At the same time, he exposed the vulnerability of the British government, which was recently headed by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, who declared himself a big supporter of decentralization immediately after moving into Downing Street 10. However, the challenge of constitutive issues seems to be beyond him at the moment.
Burnham, who is sometimes called the "King of the North", which emphasizes his background and the experience he had of ruling beyond the center embodied in Westminster, currently has little influence outside of England. Nor are the nationalist leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland undisputed leaders of the nations they represent. Furthermore, they are facing a revolt by disaffected and increasingly impoverished citizens at home.
"But that doesn't mean Barnum's kingdom is united or that he rules it without problems. The Scots are a stubborn people; many may not be convinced that independence is the right way, but they object to being denied the right to decide for themselves," wrote the "Morning Stara" columnist.
The current Barnam government, just like previous ones embodied in frequent changes of prime minister, insists that the priority for the United Kingdom must be macroeconomic growth and the recovery of public services, while it considers referendums on independence as an unwanted distraction from those issues. However, with the nationalist alliance linking Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast actively aligning their strategies, the question of the long-term future of the Union is once again relevant in a way it has not been for a generation.
Burnham should also realize that, although the poll results are tight and the possibility of an imminent referendum or independence for now hypothetical, announcements of a decisive exercise of the right to self-determination in the future may bring difficulties and pose a risk to the survival of the community of peoples within the United Kingdom.
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