War has no winners. However, conflicts are changing global politics – affecting alliances, energy markets and international influence. Viewed through that prism, the war with Iran shows how power relations are shifting far beyond the Middle East, writes Deutsche Welle.
Iran: Regime under pressure but surviving
Despite the losses at the top of the government, the basic structure of the Iranian political system remained preserved.
"We don't see a movement towards regime change. We don't even see a movement towards saving the Iranian people, which President Trump indicated as a goal in the first days of the conflict," American political analyst and president of the Eurasia Group, Jan Bremar, told DW.
In response, the Iranian regime took a high-risk move - effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, allowing passage only to certain countries. This decision led to a rise in oil prices and increased pressure on the US and its allies.
The strategy paid off. Tehran secured a truce without admitting defeat. The authorities in Iran can present the truce as proof that they have withstood US pressure. President Donald Trump has accepted Iran's ten-point plan as a basis for further negotiations. The Iranian regime survived and got time to shape the next phase under more favorable conditions.
USA: Military successes, political constraints
President Donald Trump described the outcome of the conflict as a "complete and absolute victory." However, many analysts disagree. "Certain goals have been achieved. If you look at the damage done to Iran's military capabilities - ballistic and naval - they have been seriously degraded," Bremar said.
Parts of Iran's nuclear program were also severely damaged, which is significant for Washington, because preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons was one of the key goals.
On the other hand, the USA also suffered losses. The Iranian attacks have damaged or destroyed radar systems and aircraft worth billions of dollars. Washington's reputation as a guarantor of the security of its Gulf allies has been seriously damaged, after Iran attacked not only American bases but also the key infrastructure of neighboring countries.
Photo: AP Photo/Julia Demaree NikhinsonDonald Trump: Still, for now, he won't "destroy" Iran
Relations with Europe and NATO worsened because the US started the war without consulting its allies.
The truce halted attacks on US forces and for the time being reduced the risk of a wider regional war, which was one of Washington's top priorities. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is also expected, which would reduce the pressure on the oil market.
The US is returning to the negotiating table with Iran — the same place it was before the war began. At the same time, Tehran's behavior has not changed to the extent that Washington wanted it to. It remains to be seen how much the international reputation of the USA has been damaged.
Israel: Tactical Gains, Long-Term Risks
Israel has weakened Iran's military capabilities and demonstrated that it can operate far beyond its borders, with strong US support.
At the same time, the war exposed vulnerabilities. Iranian rockets constantly burdened Israel's air defenses, and some managed to break through them, killing more than 30 people. The threat from Iran and its regional allies remains.
Professor Favas Gerges from the London School of Economics estimated for DW that Israel can emerge from the war "significantly weakened". According to him, the diplomatic damage will be great, especially in the neighborhood, because the Gulf states are now less ready to deepen relations with Israel.
Gulf States: The Saudis profited, the UAE has a problem
Iranian attacks have hit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries. Energy facilities worth billions of dollars have been damaged, and the sense of security has been seriously shaken.
The United Arab Emirates is heavily dependent on foreign workers and investors. "Ninety percent of the more than ten million residents of the UAE are foreigners," Bremar stated. "It's essential that they feel safe." Security risks have damaged the country's image as a safe haven, a key pillar of their economic model.
ADDITION APTOPIX Emirates Iran US IsraelExplosion in Saudi Arabia
However, some countries have also profited.
Saudi Arabia bypassed the Strait of Hormuz and retained a large part of its oil exports via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. "The Saudi budget looks very favorable at the moment, because they are exporting large amounts of energy at high prices," Bremar says.
Pakistan: Diplomatic momentum
Pakistan played a key role in brokering the ceasefire and should host the next round of talks. For Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, it represents a significant diplomatic success. This outcome further strengthened Pakistan's role as a regional mediator.
Its rival India remained on the sidelines and at the same time was strongly affected by the rise in energy prices.
Europe: among the biggest losers
Europe is among the biggest losers of the war with Iran. Rising energy prices have hit households and industry, while disruptions in maritime transport have affected trade and further fueled inflation, at a time when many European economies were already weakened.
The conflict deepened divisions within traditional alliances. European governments refused to support American military operations, and some did not even allow the use of airspace for offensive missions. In response, President Trump has again threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, causing serious concern in Europe.
Russia: Benefiting from Disruption
The war benefited Russia in several ways. The jump in energy prices boosted Moscow's revenues at a time when the budget was under pressure due to the war in Ukraine. Sanctions were temporarily eased as countries sought alternative sources of oil.
Although prices fell after the ceasefire, another benefit remained — global attention was diverted from the war in Ukraine. In addition, a significant part of the US military capabilities has been transferred to the Persian Gulf, which means that certain weapons systems, which are needed by Ukraine, are not available.
However, Iran's weakening also represents a loss for Russia, since Tehran is one of Moscow's few remaining allies in the region.
China: Long-term winner
China could benefit the most in the long run. The US has transferred a significant part of its military capabilities to the Middle East, in order to protect navigation near the Strait of Hormuz. That means fewer resources available for the Indo-Pacific region, where Washington and Beijing are jockeying for influence.
"China benefits not only because the US is less focused on the Asian military space, but also because its own allies see it as a significantly less reliable partner," Bremar said. "In that comparison, China is seen as a more stable actor."
During the conflict, Beijing called for restraint and welcomed the ceasefire, presenting itself as a responsible global player while protecting its economic interests.
China buys more than 80 percent of Iran's oil exports, often at discounted prices, but has recently built up large energy reserves, allowing it to withstand market volatility more easily than many competitors.
