Earlier this month, the pope was hospitalized with a respiratory infection and has been in critical condition ever since, sparking serious debate about his chances of survival, Politico writes.
The debates further fueled feverish media speculation about who might succeed him, and when the prayer session ended on Monday, reporters had a rare opportunity to press Vatican officials for comment - though most offered only a blessing in response.
"There seems to be no reason to talk or even think about the pope's resignation," Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco chided the two Catholic journalists, before refusing to answer a follow-up question from Politico with what they called a "passive-aggressive blessing."
Nevertheless, with morbid foresight, the Vatican media, especially in Italy, have already begun to report on Francis' illness as if he were already dead, publishing lists of papabilia - candidates who could replace him.
Some even insinuated that preparations were underway for a conclave to choose his successor, and others wondered aloud — despite protests from priests like Banjask — whether the pope would follow his predecessor Benedict XVI, the first pope to resign in 600 years.
But all this may be in vain. Thanks to the peculiarities of Francis' reign, analysts say this could be one of the most unpredictable papal succession battles in living memory — if not ever.
Lonely beings
The typical image of a conclave, in which the cardinals are crammed into the Sistine Chapel and cut off from the outside world until they decide on a new pope and mark their decision with white smoke, is one of the cardinals splitting into factions, preceded by scheming and aggressive secret lobbying before and during the event itself.
While that system is still largely in place — apart from 1970s-era reforms barring cardinals over 80 from voting — much of the balance of the College of Cardinals has been upset by Francis, whose papacy has reduced the ability of cardinals to get to know each other and thus to collude, Church historian Miles Pattenden told Politico.
For most of the Church's life, Pattenden said, cardinals were primarily Italian or European and interacted freely, in close quarters.
But Francis, he explained, appointed 73 of the 138 voting cardinals outside Europe, in places as far away as Mongolia and the Republic of Congo.
Although it was ostensibly a move that reflected the changing demographics of the Church, there was also a strategic element, he said.
"Francis came up with this pious rhetoric that the Church should appoint Catholics from the entire Catholic community and have a wider representation." But it was also a smart way to make sure that the cardinals didn't know each other as well, that they didn't call each other, that they didn't participate in routine business as much as they did before," Pattenden said.
Early in his papacy, Francis also angered many priests by canceling regular meetings of the College of Cardinals, known as consistories, and marginalizing once-powerful cardinals from the United States.
One cardinal in Rome (who spoke on condition of anonymity) noted that he rarely met any of the new colleagues from faraway places and really knew little about them.
"If the pope dies, they won't know anything about each other -- basically just a name and an education," said another person familiar with how the cardinals operate.
Indeed, somewhat comically, they added, many are now relying on one unlikely source to glean information about their eminent colleagues: a website called the "College of Cardinals Report" run by Vatican journalists Diane Montagna and Ed Pentin.
Internet-based research may not sound revolutionary to the average person, but what it offers the cardinals is entirely new: a comprehensive online tool that summarizes the theological positions and backgrounds of their colleagues.
On the website, they'll find brief profiles of 200 cardinals, including 22 who are considered major popes: influential enough to have a chance.
Among those cited are staunch German traditionalist Gerhard Müller, flamboyant American conservative agitator Raymond Burke, Filipino progressive Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, and Parolin, Francis' diplomat and ally.
At least for now, the content seems to be mostly fair.
Francis 2.0?
While the scheming may not be what it once was, there is another group of cardinals who operate in much closer circles and are more likely to already be coordinating with rival factions ready to push through their preferred candidate.
These are the so-called curial cardinals who sit in Rome and were appointed by Francis to lead the Vatican services, known as dicasteries.
Many of these cardinals were chosen for their loyalty, but their apparent united front around the pope masks their ideological differences, a source told Politico.
Many of these cardinals actively dislike each other, the person added, and as soon as the pope dies, clashes are likely to erupt between liberals, German reformers, progressives and conservatives.
There's no telling what will happen. The clergy could mobilize behind a younger candidate with better future prospects, progressives could support a moderate candidate seen as a "puppet," and conservatives could manage their minority (they need a third of the cardinals) to reject any candidate who might continue Francis' policies.
After years of turbulence under Francis, others may simply want a "normal" pope.
"Francis has such a centralized authority within himself that it will be very interesting to see what the power dynamics are when he is gone," said one close observer of Vatican politics.
Perhaps the only certainty is that Francis himself is unlikely to have any posthumous control over the conclave.
Historically, the power dynamics cultivated under popes collapse after their deaths and are reconstituted along entirely new fault lines, Pattenden said.
"Pope Francis has appointed many cardinals, but this is not something that will provide a candidate similar to Francis." Groups will split in unpredictable ways. Anything can happen. They will be looking for someone they can trust, someone gentle enough not to get rid of them all. But most of the deliberations will be pragmatic, not ideological," agreed Andrea Gagliarducci, a longtime Vatican analyst.
In the 16th century, Giovanni Francesco Lottini, bishop of Conversano and papal observer, reached the same conclusions in a discussion of the conclave. Cardinals, he argued, "end up choosing the pope against their will," going together "where each individually would not want to go alone."
In other words, sometimes the old powers just panic. Instead of the Lord's will, many just follow the herd.
Source: Politico
