The voter's will simplified the math - only a coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats is possible. Friedrich Mertz will have to deal with issues of migration, economy and "independence from America". And he came to prevent the strengthening of the radical right
Za "Time" from Bonn
Friedrich Mertz (69), the next German chancellor, had to postpone the election celebration on Sunday until late at night since even the proverbially accurate exit polls could not answer the key question. And then the Merc rejoiced by 0,03 percent. Namely, the Sara Wagenknecht Association (BSW) was short of passing the census - about fifteen thousand votes.
Why would Mertz, the leader of the powerful Christian Democratic Union that won the election, rejoice in the failure of a small new party if it is not a question of malice? The point is that the entry of another party into the Bundestag would disrupt Merz's calculation and force him to look for as many as two coalition partners.
If that were the case, Mertz - who previously ruled out the possibility of talking about a coalition with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Left and BSW - would be forced to form a government with both the Social Democrats and the Greens. That he shares power fifty-fifty with the two parties that are in the outgoing government and on which he threw stones and sticks.
This is how everything is going according to plan for Merc, even though the Christian Democrats fared a little worse than they had hoped. He will now sit down with the Social Democrats (SPD) to form the only mathematically and politically possible coalition. He says - it will be finished by Easter.
The SPD is the only party in the Bundestag, although the question is how much it costs them. Historically speaking, they experienced the lowest result since 1890, since the party bears that name (see graphic). Former chancellor Olaf Scholz will no longer be a factor in the party.
If he finally sits at the table in the Chancellery, Friedrich Mertz - a lawyer, former employee of the BlackRock investment fund, owner of a small plane he pilots himself and a man who was purged from the party two decades ago by Angela Merkel - will still have a long list of problems to solve. From recession and migration to Trump's schemes around Ukraine and a possible US-EU customs war.
RIGHT-WINGERS CAN WAIT
The right-wing AfD doubled its result from the last election, riding on the growing opposition of Germans to "irregular" migration after several terrorist attacks. In general, the elections were emotionally charged as hundreds of thousands of people protested against the "turn to the right".
With 82,5 percent, the turnout was the highest in reunified Germany. The AfD benefited the most by attracting almost two million voters who did not go to the polls four years ago. "Some people do not go to the polls because they are frustrated with politics. When a party pushes a credible anti-establishment policy and says that politics does nothing for the people, that's how it makes its point," says political scientist Jasmin Riddle.
In the AfD election headquarters, there was joy, but not euphoria. The party is still riding on anti-immigrant and Islamophobic sentiment, and the other parties are still sticking to the sanitary cordon around it. It is as if it is still more important for the AfD to grow in the opposition than to pacify and increase the coalition capacity, as Marine Le Pen did with "parricide" in France.
When the leaders of all the parties sat down in the public service studio after the election, Alice Weidel, head of the AfD, again offered Merz a coalition. "Our hand for participation in government will always be extended in order to implement the will of the people, the will of Germany," Weidelova said.
"You can give us a hand as much as you want," said Mertz and again refused the offer. He says the differences are too great in matters of foreign and security policy. AfD is seen as a Russophile party, restrained towards NATO.
To that, Alice Weidel says that - it can wait. She thinks that her party will become the strongest in Germany in four years (see box: Who votes for whom). Thus Mertz, apart from all other challenges, will have perhaps the last chance to "save" Germany from the onslaught of the right that is preparing for 2029.
WHERE DOES THE MONEY COME FROM??
In government negotiations, even the wounded SPD will not easily agree to everything Mertz wants. It is expected that spears will be broken over the budget - how to finance the huge military expenditures, which Mertz wants, and not cut social benefits and pensions, which the SPD does not? At the same time, investing in failed infrastructure, bridges and railways, which is a necessity? SPD is in favor of new borrowing, Mertz is strongly against it.
But the striking pens of the German press have no doubts that an agreement will be reached because it can only be done to a certain extent. No one expects the negotiations to fail and new elections to be held, which would only benefit the right-wing AfD.
Mertz announces the talks from next week because on Sunday (March 2) there are local elections in the city-state of Hamburg - one of the few places where the Social Democrats are still strong.
While Merz is inviting the SPD with the story that they will fight to preserve jobs in industry, the collapsed once-great party of Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt says that it is worth waiting. "Whether a government will be formed, whether the SPD will enter the government - that has not been decided," says SPD president Lars Klingbeil, whose position is also shaky. "The ball is first in Friedrich Merz's court - to approach the Social Democrats and ask for a conversation." To request preliminary negotiations and lead coalition negotiations."
The only possibility that these negotiations fail lies in the fact that the SPD has a rule according to which the members of the party must approve the entry into the coalition. They do it in an internal party referendum and it is possible that there will be important votes that the SPD is in the necessary regrouping in the opposition.
The conservative newspaper "Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung" is afraid of the "left turn" of the SPD. "If the SPD moves to the left, in order to win back the voters who voted for the left, and thus give the coalition a left spin, then the AfD will continue to grow stronger. Because the SPD also lost voters who now vote for the AfD. Those people do not feel that the SPD represents the working people in social policy and on the issue of migration". It should be hoped, writes the paper, that the Christian Democrats and the SPD will agree on a course of limiting migration and strengthening internal security and the economy, which would "take the wind out of the sails of the Alternative for Germany".
The left-liberal "Zidejche Zeitung" writes that democracy is on the cards. "The biggest task of this knap-coalition is to restore the confidence of the Germans in democratic moderation, which was dispersed during the mandate of the previous government. If the black-red coalition fails, not only the external security of the country would be at stake. Democracy would further weaken from within. Her enemies can't wait.”
A PROBLEM CALLED TRUMP
Despite all the economic hardships and the general decline in the standard of living since the pandemic, Merca would have to wait in the Chancellor's office for an acute problem called Donald Trump. The American president, who is currently negotiating "peace" in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin, was, of course, happy about the victory of the "conservative" forces in Germany.
It is difficult for Mertz because Trump is labeled as the man who withdraws the American guarantee of security to Europe and Germany, where the US still has large military bases and 37.000 soldiers.
"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as soon as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the US," Mertz said. For this American administration, he says, the fate of Europe is not particularly important. And so Mertz, a convinced transatlantic all his life, had to change the board overnight.
One of the first steps should be to strengthen the military. Currently, it is additionally financed by a special borrowing fund, but from 2028, its budget could increase from 50 to 80 or 90 billion euros. That's a lot of money even for Germany.
Even before that, the question could be raised whether German troops should go on a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine if the war there really ends. Currently, 49 percent of Germans support such a step, while 44 percent are against it. All this will be a headache for Merc, who did dream of a chancellor position, but probably hoped that the job would be more boring.
Exit polls in Germany are almost magical. Not only are the results practically known based on them at 18 p.m., when the polls close, but by the end of the evening, journalists, analysts and citizens have a mountain of data they can analyze.
Those polls also reveal all the divisions in society - how differently people vote in the West and the East, how differently young and old, highly educated and others, workers and civil servants vote.
The Christian Democrats dominate among the over 70s, which is an important electorate. Among them, they got as much as 43 percent. They received 39 percent of the votes of all pensioners and 35 percent of independent entrepreneurs. They could count on 41 percent of elderly men from rural areas.
Alternative for Germany is by far the strongest party in the five eastern provinces, in the former GDR, where it has results of around 35 percent. As many as 37 percent of those who say they are in a bad economic situation choose this neoliberal party, which is sold as a party of "little people". Among the highly educated, there are 13 percent, and among others, 29 percent. Most workers vote for the right.
The AfD is particularly pleased that they have an excellent rating among young people, especially young men. In fact, only in the group of the oldest over 70 years they have a thin ten percent, in all other age groups they are at 20 or more.
The Social Democrats, as an old established party, do better with older voters. In the countryside they lose to the Christian Democrats, in the cities to the Greens and the Left, and they were only ranked first, and narrowly so, in their two bastions - the port cities-provinces of Hamburg and Bremen.
According to the structure of the voters, the Greens have become an inverted AfD, a party of well-to-do and urban elites. Every fifth urban woman and every fifth highly educated vote for them, but only five percent of those with a lower education. The biggest concern of Green voters is climate change and the environment (62 percent), while only one in ten points out social security as the biggest concern.
The left is the biggest mystery and the hit of the election because only a month ago it was listed below the census. As many as 27 percent of young people who had the right to vote for the first time voted for them. For girls, that percentage goes up to nearly 40 percent. The left made a boom on TikTok. Pride has become the strongest force in the city of Berlin.
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