It is not rare for statesmen or diplomats to tell each other in confidence what they do not say publicly, especially if the situation is delicate, as with Kosovo. It is unusual, however, for the media to publish almost immediately what was said behind closed doors. And not the guest media from Serbia, but Putin's. When something like that happens, as in this case, it is logical to ask whose interest it may be. Maybe Russia? Maybe Moscow has already negotiated something with Washington? Or is it a broader package of some future agreement?
The Moscow newspaper Kommersant, which has been analytically following the situation in the Balkans for years, especially in Serbia and Kosovo, wrote about this topic on two occasions in recent days. Before Vučić left for Moscow, "Kommersant" noted his "convincing victory" in the elections, stressing that the Serbian Progressive Party will have more than two-thirds of the deputies in the new assembly.
Thanks to that, "SNS will be able to control the adoption of practically all decisions, including those concerning Kosovo and Metohija." In this context, the Russian newspaper emphasizes that "many Balkan experts" believe that changing the Constitution of Serbia and removing Kosovo and Metohija from its preamble will be a condition for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, which the West insists on.
"Komersant" writes that practically everything is now in Vučić's hands, but that it is also dangerous for him. The West is pressuring him because of Kosovo and the first thing he will have to do is to change the Constitution. Rapprochement with the US does not suit Russia, and neither does the EU. Sitting on two or three chairs is not comfortable. If he accepts Russia's position, he will anger the US and the EU. If he accepts Washington, he will lose the support of Moscow. Any decision leads to a weakening of his position.
PUTIN'S ADVICE
The second article, just a day after Vučić left Moscow, attracted even more attention. "Kommersant" writes that "the details of the Kosovo regulation that the USA will propose to the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo have become known". In Washington, that meeting was postponed in the meantime, but at the time Kommersant wrote, it was not yet known.
President Vučić, quoted by editor Gennadij Sisoyev, admitted that he was leaving for the USA after receiving "certain advice and a good analysis about Kosovo" from President Putin. A little earlier, writes the Russian daily, Vučić said that he "expects a difficult period and pressure for the implementation of the plan that they didn't even tell us about." That is why, according to Russia, we must be careful and careful when they propose these plans to us."
The basis of the American plan is the "Shenzhen formula", which envisages the creation of an economic union between Serbia and Kosovo analogous to the special zone in China. "If we manage to encourage the two sides to cooperate in the economy, then political issues will come," writes "Kommersant" referring to the American mediator Richard Grenell. The Russian newspaper adds that they leave the solution of the key and most difficult political issues to the European Union.
FIRST SPECIAL FREE ECONOMIC ZONE
Before Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978, Shenzhen was a small fishing village with a railway station, on the border with Hong Kong. The station had two floors, where the police and customs were also located. It was the tallest building in the area. Passengers bound for Hong Kong would get off the train here, take their suitcases in their hands and walk over the old bridge to the territory of Hong Kong, where they were greeted by advertisements for Coca-Cola and hamburgers, the height of exoticism for the Chinese at the time.
Two years later, Shenzhen, in accordance with the policy of reform and opening up, was declared the first special free economic zone in China. Different rules prevailed there than in other parts of China: market capitalism under conditions of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
With special measures of the government, Shenzhen received favorable conditions for attracting foreign capital, autonomy in business, taxes, export of finished products and import of modern technology and all other measures that have similar economic free zones in the world. In many factories, the managers were foreigners, because the Chinese imported not only technology but also modern management. The main investments came from Hong Kong. In the first twenty years of the Chinese reform, 745 billion dollars came from Hong Kong to China.
The growth was incredible. Today, Shenzhen has about 20 million inhabitants whose annual national income is 30.000 dollars for capita the highest among all Chinese cities. The total GDP exceeds that of Hong Kong. The city is still closed to travelers from China, a special pass is required if one does not have a work permit.
A MODEL AREA FOR CHINESE SOCIALISM
Today, Shenzhen is the world's electronics factory. About 90 percent of the world's electronic equipment comes from Shenzhen, and it is not just about the production of foreign equipment, but also those developed in China. It is the center of the largest Chinese companies, from Huawei, ZET, Trecent and others. It is also the world's third largest container port. It is the eighth city in China by the number of dollar billionaires. There is no day and night in Shenzhen, the city lives and works 24 hours a day.
In a fishing town where once the tallest building was a train station, now there are 14 skyscrapers higher than 200 meters, which is not found in any city in the world, except New York. Even Dubai has four fewer. Currently, another 60 skyscrapers are under construction, in addition to the 233 existing ones. The tallest building is 599 meters. There are 16.000 electric vehicles in city traffic. All of this speaks to Shenzhen's extraordinary economic strength and unstoppable prosperity.
Last August, as demonstrations raged in Hong Kong, the central government in Beijing made a significant and far-reaching political decision: Shenzhen was declared a "model area for socialism with Chinese characteristics" that other cities should emulate. This practically means that what is in Shenzhen today will be in all of China tomorrow.
NOT APPLICABLE TO KOSOVO
But is this formula applicable for Serbia and Kosovo? It would be nice if it was, but it is far from reality. Perhaps the Americans spoke of the Serbian-Kosovo Shenzhen in a figurative sense, in order to emphasize the importance of economic cooperation. That is more likely, but uncertain from today's perspective. The Balkan states are fragmented with the tendency of further fragmentation. Behind Shenzhen is a huge China, a unique unitary state, with many provinces and the principle of "One country, two systems".
China formed the Shenzhen Free Economic Zone, like all other similar zones, on its territory, with full state sovereignty, independent of foreign powers. This is the first and main reason that it is illusory to talk about the Balkan Shenzhen.
Another, no less important reason is that we are talking about the same people - the Chinese, a nation of one billion and three hundred million people, with five thousand years of shared history and cultural heritage behind them. On the other hand, different histories, national identities and ethnic affiliations have produced a historical tension among the Balkan peoples that was "resolved" in violence, demolition and war.
Taking into consideration the history of mutual relations between Serbs and Albanians, and the way in which they have tried to solve their problems, is it realistic that they will suddenly roll up their sleeves and start building - no less and no more than the new Shenzhen? In a situation where Albanians and Serbs cannot agree on even the most basic, everyday things, this "Chinese" model seems like a distant, abstract theory that requires a new name. Perhaps US President Trump also predicted a new doctrine: "Two countries, three systems".
