The price of food has already increased because of the war in Ukraine, and then because of the war with Iran. Now a third shock is looming: a weather phenomenon El Niño, which could bring droughts or floods to key agricultural regions of the world.
Early July American The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated there was a "63 percent chance" that the unusual weather phenomenon could be "very strong" this year.
At the same time, last week the JP Morgan bank warned that El Niño, combined with an oil price of $100 per barrel, could increase food prices by as much as 1,5 percent.
The arrival of El Niño followed two major conflicts - in Ukraine and in the Middle East. After both wars, food prices rose, but they did not cause mass starvation or serious political instability in poorer countries.
Could this third crisis create a "perfect storm" that will upset the existing balance?
Photo: AP photo/Channi Anand / FileA great famine caused by a natural phenomenon is predicted
The first, the second - and now the third strike
Russia's attack on Ukraine continues to hamper exports from one of the world's most important grain producing and exporting regions.
Attacks on ports from which grain is exported continue, many fields are mined or dangerous to cultivate.
The war with Iran and disruptions in oil exports from the Persian Gulf have increased the price of both oil and fossil fuel-based fertilizers. This raised the cost of food production worldwide and caused temporary disruptions in fertilizer supplies.
El Niño, which changes rainfall and temperature patterns across the planet, is expected to be so strong that the World Bank recently warned that rice yields in affected areas could be 20 to 50 percent lower.
Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), warned of a "cumulative effect" that could create a "very complex situation" by the end of the year.
"We are very concerned about El Niño and the delay of the monsoon in India," Torero told DW.
El Niño is expected to weaken and slow India's monsoon season, which is crucial for rice planting.
According to local media, about 40 percent less rain than usual has already fallen in June.
India produces almost a third of the world's rice, although most of that production is consumed in the domestic market.
In addition to South Asia, FAO believes that the greatest risks associated with El Niño threaten Africa's Sahel region, southern Africa, Southeast Asia and the so-called Dry Corridor in Central America.
The UN's food agency warned this month that some of those areas have a more than 50 percent chance of being hit by drought in the coming months.
Endangered
farming and animal husbandry
Record harvest in 2025.
Despite all the crises so far, FAO notes that food prices are still almost 20 percent lower than the peak reached in 2022. The reason is that last year the world achieved the largest grain harvest in history.
Farmers sowed larger areas, weather conditions were favorable, and yields per hectare increased.
The price looked good so last year more was planted than usual - and then the year turned out wellThe price looked good so last year more was planted than usual - and then the year turned out well.
Although this year's harvest is expected to be slightly smaller, it should still be the second largest on record.
"Agricultural productivity is still growing," Simone Bunze of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) told DW.
She singles out India and Latin America in particular: "It has helped sustain food production and reduce hunger. It also alleviates some local social crises."
Photo: AP Photo/Luca BrunoIllustration
Hunger continues to affect millions of people
However, this does not mean that hunger has disappeared. The United Nations estimates that 266 million people worldwide are still undernourished.
"We produce enough calories in the world to feed all the people," says Torero. "The problem is that those calories are not evenly distributed, and that's the main challenge."
The most difficult situation is in a small number of countries affected by wars, where even when there is food, it cannot reach the people who need it most. Residents of conflict-ridden countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Yemen make up two-thirds of the people facing acute hunger in crisis areas monitored by the UN.
War often destroys local food sources, displaces millions of people, damages infrastructure and severely limits access to humanitarian aid.
In certain crisis hotspots, such as Sudan and Gaza, experts warn that hunger is increasingly being used as a weapon.
"Warring parties are deliberately destroying agricultural land, livestock, water supply systems, food warehouses and traffic routes. This threatens access to markets and hinders the delivery of humanitarian aid," Bunze told DW.
Photo: AP Photo/Aurelien MorissardHeat waves are just born
Gloomy forecasts
An additional risk for the global food supply is represented by fertilizers, about a third of which is normally transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Navigation through the passage remains severely disrupted following the failed US-Iran truce, as well as attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Many farmers are now paying significantly more for fertilizer, causing them to delay purchases or switch to crops that need less fertilizer.
If you end up using less fertilizer, the next season's yields could be lower.
Food security experts believe that conflict in the Middle East alone could push millions more people into starvation by 2030, and those estimates do not yet take into account the effects of El Niño.
With the Pacific Ocean surface temperature expected to rise by about 3,6 degrees Celsius, almost twice as much as during the 2015/2016 El Niño, the Berkeley Earth Climate Institute estimates that this year's El Niño could be the strongest on record.
Experts also warn of the possibility of a sudden increase in hunger if the price of oil again exceeds 120 dollars per barrel, if grain exports from Ukraine are further blocked, or if El Niño affects crops more seriously next year due to reduced sowing.
If all these factors were to occur simultaneously, the consequences would be much more severe.
The JP Morgan bank estimates that by 2027, food price growth could exceed five percent, with developing countries being the hardest hit.
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