After the judgment of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2025 and years of American sanctions, Milorad Dodik (SNSD) is now walking through Washington as a guest The Trumps administration. He recently visited Israel, sending a message of a change in the political field in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The visit to the United States these days - right before the repeated elections for the president of Republika Srpska - is not only symbolic. It is certain that it marks a geopolitical turn that changes the balance of power in BiH, where the Banja Luka government becomes a key player in Trump's vision of the Balkans, writes DW.
For pro-government analysts, it is clear that this is the biggest diplomatic offensive of Republika Srpska in the last few years - which, in truth, even Dodik's biggest political opponents cannot deny. The only question is whether it is a new beginning of cooperation or a sale of principles for short-term benefit.
Trump's wind is changing direction
The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House has brought pragmatism, especially for those who are willing to follow him at all costs. Rich in energy and mineral potential, Republika Srpska was seen as a buffer against Russian and Chinese influences. The lifting of US sanctions against the RS leadership last year was no accident. OFAC clearly stated "constructive action of the RS National Assembly" - which implies possible concessions.
"I think that Milorad Dodik is playing games, especially with the judicial institutions, because he continues secessionist rhetoric and attacks on the constitutional order, without any consequences," says political analyst Tanja Topić, recalling Dodik's new announcements about secession after his return from Israel. Now the games have been transferred to American soil.
"He continues to play with the citizens whom he incited not so long ago to hate imperialism." America, in which they are now making fun of those same taxpayers. "Also, he swears by the same value system as Trump, standing on the sidelines of Christian values before the invasion of 'radical Islam,'" says Topić.
From threats to silence
For others, this is not just Dodik's victory, but a reorganization of politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unlike the other entity, the RS is currently getting the green light for investments related to infrastructure projects, and taking over the southern and eastern gas interconnection in a package.
For years exerting pressure with sanctions, the European Union is now silent, because for Brussels the Trump era means the end of their monopoly on Balkans. At the same time, according to analysts, Dodik's rotation from "Russia's ally" to "Trump's child" changes the dynamics in state institutions, where the SNSD with Dodik at the helm once again becomes an unavoidable factor.
The judgment of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina from August 2025 was Dodik's darkest political hour. The court confirmed that Dodik violated the laws of High Representative Kristian Šmit from 2023. This resulted in the political lynching and isolation of Dodik, as well as the entire leadership of Republika Srpska.
"No one is above the law," said BiH Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković at the time.
A visit to Israel as a link in the American chain
The change, however, came in a flash. The sanctions were lifted after millions were invested in lobbying with a message from the State Department about "partnership on common interests."
Three months later, Dodik is advertising on the X network from Washington, where he came at the invitation of the US administration to attend a traditional prayer breakfast.
"I have arrived," wrote Dodik, who for the last two days together with a member of the BiH Presidency, met with several high-ranking American officials.
Along with Washington, Dodik's visit to Israel adds another layer of change. Meetings with the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isak Herzog were not protocol. Economic cooperation and geopolitics were discussed. According to Dodik, Israel sees the RS as a stable partner, and with the Trump-Netanyahu axis, the RS becomes a ground for investments.
"I think it is high time to affirm the right to self-determination. And what we have succeeded in Israel is to affirm that right to self-determination," said Dodik after his visit to Israel.
There are more and more people who claim that pragmatism prevailed in that battle, especially with the announcement of an investment infusion in the destroyed economy. This could mean a new balance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the question is whether its lifespan coincides with that of this American administration.
Betrayal or pragmatism
"A favorable geopolitical moment associated with Trump and his unpredictability could bring terrible headaches in BiH. On the one hand, Dodik will do everything to return to political life and behave as if he is not removed from office, while Dragan Čović tries to 'use the opportunity' and get a third entity," says Topić, with the assessment that this hardly fits into the economic interests of the US in BiH.
"That kind of (in)stability is not compatible with plans. The lobbying lesson, which confirmed that today's relations are based on power, interest and money, shattered all illusions about the rule of law and respect for human rights," Topić points out.
The opposition in the RS claims that Dodik settled with the Americans on all issues. Apart from investments and turning that area into a mining colony, the unpacking of the Dayton Agreement is on the table again - on which Dodik and Čović now agree.
"The usurper made a deal with Americans and foreigners, he is ready for any betrayal in order to stay in power. Apart from Zagreb, he is also a useful idiot of Jews from Israel, who also encourage him - lobbied with our people's money - to tear Bosnia and Herzegovina apart," claims Nebojša Vukanović, leader of the List for Justice and Order.
Balloon before the repeat elections
After Dodik's action on the international level where he seeks support for an independent RS and Čović's announcements about meetings in Washington and Brussels where he will seek support for amending the BiH Election Law and unpacking Dayton, Konaković also spoke out. He claims that Dodik's move is aimed at mobilizing before the repeated elections for the President of the RS, after the CEC of Bosnia and Herzegovina found a huge theft in the elections in November last year.
"For twenty years, politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina, this pro-Bosnian side, have been running after Milorad Dodik, following his crazy ideas and reacting to him because they are afraid of him. He is huge and too powerful for them. They react to his every threat of secession and thus deliberately build him up, because he suits them as a partner," says Konaković and at the same time rejects the real danger of that scenario.
In the repeated elections on Sunday, it will be seen whether Dodik's offensive is a permanent change or just a temporary twist at the crossroads of Balkan interests. In all of this, the question is whether the stability of the RS will survive Trump's mandate or whether it will return to the old dynamics of the Bosnian reality.
