Trump announces a record low level of diesel prices thanks to the agreement with Putin, but experts warn that the agreement will not significantly affect the world market. Wars, disruptions in production and difficult transportation of fuel continue to keep prices high, and announced Russian deliveries cover only part of American needs
With or without agreement with Russia, diesel prices on the world market are unlikely to fall significantly in the near future. That's the conclusion of experts consulted by DW regarding the US president's latest deal Donald Trump and the Russian president Vladimir Putin about Russian diesel deliveries.
"The cause of high diesel prices is the war with Iran and the simultaneous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab el Mandeb," explains Samina Sultan, an expert on foreign trade from the Institute of German Economics (IW) in Cologne.
According to her, because of this, production is interrupted, while the transportation of fuel becomes "more expensive, more unsafe and more complicated".
Sultan believes that Trump's "deal" with Russia has an additional geopolitical dimension. "That's how the wars in Ukraine and Iran get completely mixed up," she says.
According to the data of the analytical company Kpler, around 13,5 million barrels of crude oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz again. With processed products, such as diesel, the situation is different.
Currently, about 677.000 barrels are transported daily, while before the war, this volume was about 3,6 million barrels.
And Karsten Fritsch, Komercbank's analyst for the raw materials market, sees wars as the main cause of high prices.
"If the situation in Ukraine and Iran continues at this rate, I don't see many opportunities to remove these bottlenecks," Fritsch says.
On October 9, Trump announced that he would temporarily ease sanctions against Russia and allow the import of Russian diesel.
He argued that this would cause prices "for Americans, but also for the whole world" to quickly fall to record lows.
Russia confirmed the agreement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state news agency TASS on October 13 that "diesel deliveries correspond to the interests of Russia, the United States and global energy markets."
Over the last year, diesel prices have really risen significantly both in the US and in many countries of the European Union.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of diesel in the US has increased by about 60 percent and is now around $6,30 per gallon, or approximately โฌ1,49 per liter.
However, even if Russia could flood the market with cheap diesel, prices would not fall as much as they have previously risen. All experts consulted by DW agree on this.
The reason is that many refineries in the Persian Gulf region are operating at reduced capacity, while transportation via so-called "shadow fleets" is expensive, complicated and risky.
In addition, Russia is no longer the world's largest exporter of diesel. On the contrary, it is itself facing fuel shortages.
The United States came out on top. During 2025, the US exported an average of 1,264 million barrels of diesel per day, or about 15,4 percent of world exports. Russia fell to second place with a share of 9,5 percent.
If the US were to introduce restrictions on diesel exports, the consequences would be felt most by the countries of Latin America and the European Union. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU has, because of the sanctions
Moscow, significantly increased the import of American diesel.
But the consequences would be serious for the United States itself. "The export ban only redistributes the shortage, but does not solve it," ING Chief Economist Carsten Brzeski believes. "World prices would continue to rise, while refineries would cut production due to lower margins."
Samina Sultan states that this is precisely why the idea of โโexport restrictions, which was recently mentioned by Trump, was abandoned.
"Since the US does not have enough storage capacity for diesel, production would have to be reduced," she explains. "And that would push prices up again."
Today, almost no one talks about the economic effects of the supposedly "record" agreement with Russia. According to the calculations of the Our World in Data platform, the initially announced emergency delivery of 2,2 million barrels of diesel would not even cover the daily US consumption, which is about four million barrels.
Even if all the quantities announced by Trump were realized, a total of 35,8 million barrels, it would meet American needs for only nine days.
"I can't stress enough how insignificant this deal is," Canadian oil market analyst Rory Johnston wrote on the X Network shortly after the deal was announced.
He reminds that under normal circumstances, Russia exports almost ten times more diesel, provided that its refineries are not the target of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Canada continues to supply the US with the bulk of imported diesel. About 80 percent of US imports come from the neighboring country. However, it is unlikely that Canada, after Trump's numerous verbal attacks on Ottawa, will be ready to further increase shipments.
That is why most analysts believe that the agreement between Washington and Moscow cannot significantly change the situation on the market, as long as wars and geopolitical crises disrupt the production and transportation of energy products.
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